ADP: The criminally under-drafted
Thumbing through the handy Fantasy Football Calculator ADP tool, one can't help but notice players jumping out as over-drafted and under-drafted. Below are eight players that are being criminally under-drafted in late June.
1. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - Coming off a successful close-out to last season and virtually guaranteed to receive one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL, Benson is being drafted as just the 30th back off the board. K.C. Joyner, from the NY Times' Fifth-Down Blog, explains Benson's "upside potential."
2. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals - Maybe it's the handiwork of this mid-June guess that Tim Hightower would open the season as the starter, but Wells is being drafted just two rounds ahead of Hightower and almost a full two rounds behind fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno. Don't believe the Hightower talk. Wells is far more talented and figures to get plenty of carries in an explosive offense.
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - A full round behind Brees and Brady? Manning won't miss a game, and he's finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB in each of the last 10 years! Lead pipes have nothing on this lock.
4. Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos - Beat writer Lindsay Jones issued a fantasy alert(!) on Royal, who caught 91 passes as a rookie and figures to top that figure in the Wes Welker offensive role with Brandon Marshall an even bigger question mark than last year. He should be drafted higher than WR24.
5. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets - Drafters are obviously scared off by the Sanchez/Clemens factor, but keep in mind that Laveranues Coles is gone. Cotchery, who is being drafted behind WR3 reaches like Kevin Walter and Steve Breaston, is guaranteed to be a target monster in 2009.
6. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills - Taking his history into account, the QB17 spot seems about right. Drafters, however, always underestimate the impact of a difference-making receiver landing in a new offense. In T.O. and Lee Evans, Edwards has two of the 15 most talented WRs in the league.
7. Stephen Jackson, RB, Rams - The biggest mistake drafters make an annual basis? Putting far too much stock in last year's numbers. Considering S-Jax's talent, offensive role and expected workload, he should be a legit option to go in the Top-3. Meanwhile, Matt Forte is less talented, has a now-healthy Kevin Jones as a backup and won't enjoy as many dumpoffs with Jay Cutler at QB.
8. Justin Gage, WR, Titans - Flying well under the fantasy radar, Gage is the best of the unsexy receiver options. He closed out last season with a 10-reception, 135-yard effort against the Ravens in the playoffs and has been tearing up OTAs. In the second year of Mike Heimerdinger's offense, he's better than WR46.
Comments
I agree largely with the list. Three players I have big reservations about though:
Cedric Benson's crappy offensive line and division with the Steelers, Ravens, and even Browns with Shaun Rodgers bothers me a lot though. He could get 30 carries against for 50 yards against a lot of the teams on his schedule.
Cotchery scares me not only because of the qb situation but because without Coles, he's likely to be double teamed like crazy. That said, I expect the Jets D to be much improved and give them a lot of good field position, so maybe that could translate into more red zone targets.
Trent Edwards... got TO, lost Jason Peters. He was pretty effective during the games without Peters last year, and I generally think he will be much improved fantasy valuewise. I still worry about the time he'll have to throw and the injury risk with getting hit more. Could be a great later round value pick either way.
For Stephen Jackson... o-line upgraded a lot this year, new coach. I love his chances of having a big year.
Posted by: Fredex | June 26, 2009 01:28 PM
WRITE THIS DOWN NOW:
Chris Wells will be the reason you win or lose in the playoffs this year.
His opposition in Weeks 14 15 and 16 are 3 of the worst teams in the league. And he will have 100% won the starting role and goal-line duties by then.
If he's on your starting roster after the draft, you'll be just fine. If he's lining up for another team in December, Good Luck.
Posted by: Wes Hale | June 26, 2009 01:39 PM
WRITE THIS DOWN NOW:
Chris Wells will be the reason you win or lose in the playoffs this year.
His opposition in Weeks 14 15 and 16 are 3 of the worst teams in the league. And he will have 100% won the starting role and goal-line duties by then.
If he's on your starting roster after the draft, you'll be just fine. If he's lining up for another team in December, Good Luck.
Posted by: Wes Hale | June 26, 2009 01:39 PM
The knock on Steven Jackson is injuries. People don't want to take that risk (no matter how great the reward) on their early 1st rounder. So he's falling to late 1st and even early 2nd.
Posted by: Bob | June 26, 2009 01:56 PM
The thing to fear with regard to Cotchery isn't so much the prospect of double-teams (opposing defenses will generally fear the run more than the pass and take their chances on the outside) or the decline in QBing (Clemens isn't as big a step down from Favre as everyone thinks). It's the schedule. In 2008, the AFCE had the luxury of playing half of their games against two of the most craptacular divisions I've ever seen (the ones with "West" in their names). This year, with the AFCS and NFCS on the schedule instead, most of the AFCE guys are getting drafted too high. This applies to Edwards, too (along with the fact that he has the worst home-game weather in the league to contend with).
I second (third?) Wes' point about Wells.
I won't be a Stephen Jackson believer until I'm confident that the defense can stop the opposition from scoring 30 every week and putting the offense into perpetual "down two scores-- gotta throw" mode.
Posted by: Enoch | June 26, 2009 02:11 PM
P.Manning is a bargin in the 3rd round. Manning shouldn't make it out of round 2. If I'm one of the first few picks and Manning is there on the way back down I now have one of the best RB's with my first pick, then Manning and a WR like R. White. Not a bad start.
I can see the potential of S. Jackson going as a top 3 pick. But it wouldn't be me taking him there. He has top 3 talent but he never seems to get there. He's only played 16 games once. Also he has only rushed for more than 1046 yrds one time. He has only managed double digit TD's twice and one year was just ten TD's. I know receiving yards come into play but he has only went over 400 yards receiving one time. He's a first round talent but not top 3.
I would draft Forte ahead of S.Jax. Forte is in a better situation with Cutler than Orton. Forte's ypc should go up around 4.4. I don't see Forte receiving yards dropping alot, maybee some, but not alot.
Last year's stats may not be a tell all. But, I think Forte is in a better situation than S.Jax
Posted by: maddog | June 26, 2009 02:32 PM
Interesting that Benson is #1 on a list titled "The Criminally ..."
Posted by: jt | June 26, 2009 03:24 PM