June 30, 2009
I just wrapped up a fantasy football draft for Krause Publications on CBS Sportsline. The league, which will be played out, awards one point per reception and six points per passing touchdown. It was a 16-round draft with 12 participants. I drafted eighth overall. Here's how my team turned out:
QB Jay Cutler (8.5)
RB Steven Jackson (1.8)
RB Marion Barber (2.5)
WR Dwayne Bowe (3.8)
WR Eddie Royal (4.5)
WR Lee Evans (6.5)
TE Jeremy Shockey (10.5)
FLX Joseph Addai (5.8)
K Ryan Longwell (15.8)
DEF Giants (13.8)
BN Ray Rice (7.8)
BN Carson Palmer (9.8)
BN Kevin Curtis (11.8)
BN Josh Morgan (12.5)
BN Mike Walker (14.5)
BN Tashard Choice (16.5)
Continue reading "Points-Per-Reception Industry Draft" »
June 26, 2009
Thumbing through the handy Fantasy Football Calculator ADP tool, one can't help but notice players jumping out as over-drafted and under-drafted. Below are eight players that are being criminally under-drafted in late June.
1. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - Coming off a successful close-out to last season and virtually guaranteed to receive one of the heaviest workloads in the NFL, Benson is being drafted as just the 30th back off the board. K.C. Joyner, from the NY Times' Fifth-Down Blog, explains Benson's "upside potential."
2. Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals - Maybe it's the handiwork of this mid-June guess that Tim Hightower would open the season as the starter, but Wells is being drafted just two rounds ahead of Hightower and almost a full two rounds behind fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno. Don't believe the Hightower talk. Wells is far more talented and figures to get plenty of carries in an explosive offense.
3. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts - A full round behind Brees and Brady? Manning won't miss a game, and he's finished as a Top-6 fantasy QB in each of the last 10 years! Lead pipes have nothing on this lock.
Continue reading "ADP: The criminally under-drafted" »
June 25, 2009
Donald Brown, Jerome Harrison, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Bernard Scott, and Shonn Greene have all been discussed here and are among the most popular sleeper "backups" in fantasy football. Jerious Norwood has curiously gotten little airtime, but there's a whole lot to like about his situation:
1. Michael Turner is facing the 370 Curse. As Bill Barnwell explains in the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide (available today), backs crossing the 370-carry threshold (or 390 carries including the playoffs) tend to get injured or experience a massive production drop the following season. Turner led the NFL with 377 regular season carries last year and had 18 more in Atlanta's first-round playoff loss. Larry Johnson (2007) and Shaun Alexander (2006) were the latest victims of the Curse of 370. If Turner gets hurt, Norwood will be the Falcons' starter.
2. Norwood is a proven producer. Norwood averages a scintillating 6.6 yards per touch for his career. His career per-carry average is 5.8, and he led the NFL in 2007 with a 6.0 YPC. Despite being a clear-cut backup and averaging only 125 annual touches, Norwood has been a top-43 fantasy back in each of his three seasons. He scored six all-purpose touchdowns and was the non-PPR RB37 overall (a borderline RB3) in 2008 despite getting the rock just 131 times. Norwood can be more than a third-down specialist.
3. Atlanta is all but certain to throw more in Matt Ryan's sophomore season, and Tony Gonzalez's acquisition supports this. Norwood is the club's go-to back on passing downs. He had 36 receptions to Turner's 6 last year. The Falcons throw more = Norwood plays more.
Continue reading "Could this finally be Jerious' Year?" »
June 24, 2009
For last year's Rotoworld Draft Guide I did a column featuring 25 "prospects" for the 2009 season. This list excluded always over-analyzed rookies and was mostly comprised of second-year skill players. I left out anyone with extensive starting experience and, of course, guys that seemed unlikely to make 53-man rosters.
There were hits (Pierre Thomas, Steve Breaston, Tyler Thigpen, Kevin Boss), misses (Laurent Robinson, Brian Calhoun, Scott Chandler), and others that flirted with fantasy value (Chansi Stuckey, Miles Austin, Jason Hill). Mike Walker, my No. 1 "prospect," ultimately landed in the final group. Had it not been for continued knee trouble (MCL sprain that developed infection) and the tragic in-season deaths of Walker's best friend and father (Walker's dad died on the day of the friend's funeral), Walker might've qualified for group one.
Walker racked up 107 yards on six receptions in the only game he played much. It came in a hard-fought, 26-21 Week 4 loss to Pittsburgh. The Steelers had the NFL's No. 1 pass defense in 2008.
Here's what I wrote about Walker during 2008 training camp:
Continue reading "Northcutt's impending release clears Walker's way" »
In doing some early research on defense/special teams for my keeper league, I noticed that I ended up with all four NFC East teams toward the top of my rankings. The Giants and Redskins scored dramatic upgrades this offseason while Eagles and Cowboys return strong units. Here's a look at the Top-10:
1. Eagles - Finished No. 1 last season in many scoring systems and added Jeremy Maclin to go with DeSean Jackson in the return game. Throw in a Trent Cole-led stout pass rush and a backfield playmaker in Asante Samuel, and Philly is the surprise pick at the top.
2. Giants - Already boasting a stingy run defense and a fierce pass rush, the Giants bolstered the defensive line and lineback corps in free agency and the draft while regaining sackmaster Osi Umenyiora. Safety Kenny Phillips is a breakout candidate.
3. Steelers - A virtual lock for 45-50 sacks plus one of the best safeties in the game in Troy Polamalu. Not to be overlooked, last year's pedestrian return game receives a boost from rookie Mike Wallace and/or CFL signee Stefan Logan.
Continue reading "Defense/special teams: NFC East heavy" »
When the post-draft period started, Daunte Culpepper was Detroit's expected Week 1 starter. After a series of fawning articles about Matthew Stafford's development, it already looks like a dead heat. And the tie will seemingly go to the rookie.
I wrote about this elsewhere last night, but I'm interested in the fantasy angle here. Notably, would Stafford winning the job in Week 1 have any impact on Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith's fantasy value?
Continue reading "Stafford won't displace Megatron's Rank" »
June 23, 2009
I recently returned from a week-long vacation in Cape Cod. I tried to stay away from football news (and a computer) as much as possible during my time off. Upon return, I had about 300 Rotoworld posts to catch up on. One story that stuck out was Eli Manning's desire to be the NFL's highest paid player.
Manning is entering the last year of his six-year, $54 million rookie deal. He is due $9.4 million in 2009 base salary.
Not surprisingly, the Giants' standing offer isn't close to Manning's demands. On an annual basis, Nnamdi Asomugha ($45.3M/3 years) is currently the league's richest player. Eli wants $20 million a year.
The Mannings are a nervy bunch, and Eli in particular. He's kidding himself if he thinks he's worth this money.
Continue reading "Eli to be NFL's highest paid?" »
June 22, 2009
Rounding up stories from the weekend, Skinny Posts has a decidedly purple and gold tinge this morning.
After dissecting the upcoming calendar, Profootballtalk.com predicts July 3 as the date the Vikes will announce Brett Favre's signing.
Scout.com points out that Adrian Peterson's name isn't being called often enough deep inside the red zone. A total of 25 backs had more carries inside the 5-yard line than ADP did last season. He's going to need to be rewarded by the goal-line more often if he's going to capture his first fantasy MVP award.
Although my efforts to rev up the Percy Harvin hype train haven't yet reached the magnitude of last year's effort with Chris Johnson or the previous year's Adrian Peterson love, that may be about to change. Whatifsports.com recently ran a computer simulation of the upcoming season, and the computer revealed a serious mancrush on Harvin. He's projected to rack up 904 total yards and eight touchdowns on 130 touches as a rookie.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Vikings Nuggets" »
June 18, 2009
High-risk/high-reward wide receivers were on my mind today after the recent hype being thrown at Marques Colston, Ted Ginn, Chad Ochocinco and Percy Harvin. That got me thinking, "Who might be the Top-10 boom-or-bust wide receivers for this season?" Let's give it a shot:
1. Brandon Marshall – A certified WR1 when not in the back of a police cruiser, Marshall faces questions about the hip surgery, a possible suspension and an ongoing squabble with the Broncos.
2. Marques Colston – Another true WR1 when healthy, Colston is coming off microfracture surgery on his troublesome left knee. That makes two straight offseasons with knee surgery.
3. Dwayne Bowe – Could be a target monster after the Tony Gonzalez trade, but the Chiefs offense figures to struggle to score points this season. We're going to have to change his nickname to "Snacks" if he doesn't stop eating.
4. Roy Williams – Flashed undeniable talent early in his Lions career, but he never could put it all together to emerge as a reliable fantasy stud. Will that change as Romo’s No. 1 receiver?
5. Chad Ocho Cinco – Now going on age 32, is Ocho a prime bounce-back candidate, or he is simply past his prime? As always with the Bengals, there’s a danger of the whole team going in the tank by October.
Continue reading "Ten boom-or-bust wide receivers" »
June 17, 2009
Brandon Marshall wants out. He thinks he's getting out too, after meeting with Pat Bowlen. A lot of NFL observers believe Marshall won't go anywhere, and that's my guess as well. Denver has him under contract for at least one more year, two under the current collective bargaining agreement.
Will another team give up the necessary price (a first-rounder to start) to acquire someone coming off hip surgery that is one slip-up away from a long league suspension?
While the Broncos won't just give Marshall away, but the only reason a trade is possible is that NFL teams see the same thing we do on Sundays: the kid is a beast, and someone may think they can turn his life around.
Of course, I didn't think Jay Cutler would get moved either, and look what happened.
The main difference in this situation is that Marshall's fantasy value won't be too effected by a move. The teams mentioned as possibilities (Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa, Chicago) don't have great passing attacks, but neither does Denver. More than anything, Marshall's move would hurt Kyle Orton and possibly help get Eddie Royal more targets.
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