Tough to Rank: Pierre Thomas

Great job on post yesterday: 48 comments! Now on to today's subject ...
Oh, Pierre: we have come so far together. One of favorite muses on this blog, a popular Fantasy Fix topic last summer, and a top-three fantasy back down the stretch. He put up 677 total yards, 19 catches, and nine scores in a career-altering six week stretch. Now it's time to cash in. Right?
Not everyone agrees. Thomas' ADP is all over the map. It seems like he could go anywhere from early in round three to round five, depending on what draft you are in.
I don't expect Thomas to keep up his pace from the end of last year when Reggie Bush returns, but what else has really changed? Here's what I wrote for our magazine:
The Saints failed to add a power back to complement Thomas. ... Tougher than his size suggests, he’s the underpaid man’s Maurice Jones-Drew. Bush will be back to steal receptions, but Thomas is clearly the favorite to lead the team in carries and rushing scores. He’ll play on the goal-line.
So where would you guys take him? I'm struggling to decide how to rank him, Kevin Smith, and Ronnie Brown, who came out identical in my original projections. Let's assume, for this exercise, the Saints don't add another quality back to the mix. We can't build that into our projections, we have to evaluate what we know about him right now. Any change to his circumstance is what our second magazine and online draft guide are for.
Also much thanks to those of you who have jumped on the Twitter train with me. I'll be shooting in quick thoughts on rankings, news, links, and magazine projections there.





Comments
As a Saints fan and a guy that used Thomas to get to a championship last year, I love Thomas. All homerism aside, I'll be targeting him late third round at the latest. I picked him off waivers last year, but you have to assume with his performance he will get drafted by someone looking to cash in again. With Bush's injury history, having Thomas on your bench seems like a fine idea. If Bush manages to stay healthy however, he has yet another reason to want to prove himself, and will likely do all he can to justify his draft position and possibly keep Thomas on the bench in many/all situations. Anyone with a similar man crush on Thomas should watch the progress of P.J. Hill and Donaldson though, and change their opinion of Thomas accordingly should either stick with the Saints.
Posted by: James B. | May 6, 2009 01:15 PM
Slightly off topic, but I think that Peyton is no fool and realizes that PT wins him games and Reggie Bush is a gamble when used too much. Best case scenario for both the Saints and PT's fantasy value: PT gets 20-30 touches per game, Bush is limited to 10-15 touches but is more of a surprise attack, Goal-Line-Back-To-Be-Named-Later gets 0-5 very situational carries. Bush lovers will moan, but I think this will maximize his value as well, leading to perhaps more than 4 yards per carry for the first time in his carrier. Also, this maximizes the O's versatility and scores lots of points. Win Win.
Posted by: SaintsFan | May 6, 2009 03:58 PM
bush is a game changer, no offense but u gotta give game changers more than ten touches a game. They will both get an equal split. If one is playing better per game, than im sure Peyton will ride the hot hand like he always does.
Posted by: scott c | May 6, 2009 04:18 PM
Most Saints fans would disagree. He is explosive alright, but he has no instincts for the game. He's better as a receiver than a RB. As a RB he looks like he is being shot out of a canon into the line. It's like he's playing red rover. It's no coincidence that the running gmae was MILES better when Reggie got hurt. Peyton plays Reggie a lot because of the financial/draft slot situation to hope he develops. Eventually he has to worry more about his own job security than Reggie's.
Posted by: SaintsFan | May 6, 2009 06:01 PM
I think Pierre Thomas, if utilized properly, is a average RB2 who will get drafted as at best a high upside RB3 or a desparate team's RB2. People are reading too much into Reggie Bush's return to the lineup. While he will steal some carries, it will keep Thomas fresher, and more teams than not run a 2 back system. The thing to really like about Thomas this year more has to do with Reggie Bush. It is Bush will play so much in the slot and we may even see him in some 2 WR sets, whether that is as a decoy or actually legitly getting catches. So Bush is going to split time between being a RB and WR, which bodes well for Thomas. As long as the Saints are smart and don't add anything more than a power back that would simply be insurance incase Bush and/or Thomas gets hurt, breaks down, struggles, etc, Thomas could be the steal of the draft.
Posted by: Bill | May 6, 2009 08:24 PM
Give me PT over Ronnie Brown and K SMith anyday. Brown is an awesome back, but he'll still split carries with Ricky and doesn't get to many receptions. K Smith plays for the Lions and is too inconsistent to me.
Posted by: Joe Horton | May 7, 2009 03:49 AM
pierre is the better back plus reggie is gonna b 2 focused on kim kardashian just like romo was 2 j simpson
Posted by: zakari | May 7, 2009 08:21 AM