Tough to Rank: Pierre Thomas
Great job on post yesterday: 48 comments! Now on to today's subject ...
Oh, Pierre: we have come so far together. One of favorite muses on this blog, a popular Fantasy Fix topic last summer, and a top-three fantasy back down the stretch. He put up 677 total yards, 19 catches, and nine scores in a career-altering six week stretch. Now it's time to cash in. Right?
Not everyone agrees. Thomas' ADP is all over the map. It seems like he could go anywhere from early in round three to round five, depending on what draft you are in.
I don't expect Thomas to keep up his pace from the end of last year when Reggie Bush returns, but what else has really changed? Here's what I wrote for our magazine:
The Saints failed to add a power back to complement Thomas. ... Tougher than his size suggests, he’s the underpaid man’s Maurice Jones-Drew. Bush will be back to steal receptions, but Thomas is clearly the favorite to lead the team in carries and rushing scores. He’ll play on the goal-line.
So where would you guys take him? I'm struggling to decide how to rank him, Kevin Smith, and Ronnie Brown, who came out identical in my original projections. Let's assume, for this exercise, the Saints don't add another quality back to the mix. We can't build that into our projections, we have to evaluate what we know about him right now. Any change to his circumstance is what our second magazine and online draft guide are for.
Also much thanks to those of you who have jumped on the Twitter train with me. I'll be shooting in quick thoughts on rankings, news, links, and magazine projections there.
Comments
RB3...low risk/med to high reward. Solid round 4 pick. Round 3 in a pinch, round 5 if lucky.
Posted by: Qsurdaddy | May 5, 2009 09:14 PM
I love PT as much as the next Saints fan, but the team DID add two power backs to the roster after the NFL Draft -- P.J. Hill and Herb Donaldson.
Not saying that both of them will compete with PT near the goal line, but I expect at least of them to do so. Herb Donaldson may not be a household name, but I think fantasy owners will hear his name often enough this summer/preseason to shy away from Thomas just a nudge. And that is why I think 4th round sounds about right ... he is in an awkward situation with all the potential in the world, but Sean Payton has been craving a power runner for short yardage situations and, personally, I think he found one.
Posted by: Michael from The Hazean | May 5, 2009 09:50 PM
Reggie never has proven he can get more that 4.0 per ATT. And that is behind one of the better O-lines in the league. Add in the fact that Bush is showing to be somewhat brittle, leaves Thomas looking at 250 ATT minimum. He has proven he can produce when given the opportunity. He has avg 4.8 per ATT the last two years. He has also shown to be adept at the goal line as well as receiving (9.1 per last two years.) I see 1180 11-12 TD add in 30 recpts (NOR is the most pass heavy OFF in the league) for 300 and maybe 1 receiving TD........you are looking at 260+ in a PPR environment. Puts him solidly in the top 15 and maybe latter reaches of top 10. Dynasty wise, previous poster is right. He is a sell high.....but redraft? ....let him drop at your own peril. You will be kicking yourself over it later.
Posted by: Interested Observer | May 5, 2009 11:08 PM
PT could go in the 3rd or 4th round. If bush is healthy and that is a big IF he will cutting into Thomas's playing time.
Posted by: Misfit | May 5, 2009 11:28 PM
i agree with most of the posters on here. PT is a very good 4th or 5th rd value, but a reach in rd 1 or 2. hed ideally fit in rd 3 somewhere with the likes of all the other rb2's, like ronnie and kevin, and after all the wr1's and elite qb's are gone. so theres chances he could make it to the 4th rd. if hes there, like everyone's mentioned, he's worth the gamble. his value lies there.
Posted by: scott c | May 6, 2009 05:05 AM
Saints just signed a power back to a 3 year deal today. There you have it!
Posted by: Todd | May 6, 2009 10:33 AM
Do some of the above commenters even watch football or do you just bust out your stats page on your favorite website.
Pierre is a fvcking beast when he runs, and when he runs after he catches it. He runs hard AND he makes people miss. That's a combination for success in the NFL.
For everyone that wants to talk stats, take every game he's touched the ball at least 15 times and look at those numbers. Those are LTIII numbers right there.
Moot point to me, I have in the 13th round as a keeper (and for the next 3 years).
In Pierre We Trust!
Posted by: Sandpoint Web Design | May 6, 2009 12:20 PM