Tough to Rank: Jeremy Shockey
There were very high expectations for Jeremy Shockey in his first season with the Saints. Shockey, who knew the ins and outs of coach Sean Payton's offense from their time together with the Giants, was playing for a contract and entering an extremely pass-heavy offense.
Shockey aggravated a summer groin injury in Week 3 and needed sports hernia surgery. He returned more quickly than expected -- missing only four games -- but was obviously short on explosiveness the rest of the way, lost two fumbles, and never found the end zone. He finished as the TE27 in standard (non-PPR) leagues.
Still, Shockey's made it through an entirely healthy offseason for the first time since his monster rookie year. The four-time Pro Bowler is only 28. Shockey is also still playing for that contract.
Despite not even finishing as a respectable fantasy backup last season, Shockey managed 50 receptions -- the eleventh most by any tight end. He did this playing hurt. To me, this only hints at Shockey's upside now that he's healthy. For now, I conservatively have him just outside the top 10 tight ends. These are the guys around him:
7. Greg Olsen
8. Dustin Keller
9. Owen Daniels
10. Zach Miller
11. Shockey
12. Vernon Davis
13. Brent Celek
14. Heath Miller
15. John Carlson
Should Shockey be higher? Lower? Any thoughts would help.
Comments
I agree with Dennis on this one. After two seasons of unfulfilled hype, I have no faith in Shockey. Add that to the other weapons that Brees has to throw to, and Shockey is a #3 option at best on that offense. I would gladly take Davis, Miller, or Carlson if they were to slip past him.
Also, shouldn't Owen Daniels be a few places higher? He was top 3 in receiving yardage last year. The Texans didn't really add anyone to threaten his receiving totals. I know his TD total had much to be desired, but I wouldn't imagine it would drop any farther.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | May 8, 2009 09:14 AM
I think you have him ranked about right, although I agree with Mike from the Hazean on putting him ahead of Z.Miller for the same reason. Shockey is in a much better offense even with the other weapons around him. Z.Miller is the only pass catcher that the Raiders have, (have to wait and see on DHB).
If Shockey can stay healthy (BIG IF) I could see him easily putting up top 10 #'s, maybe even close to top 5. Last season, Lance Moore came out of nowhere. He's not sneaking up on anyone this year. With defenses focusing on him and Colston lining up on the outside, Shockey should be free to roam across the middle of the field.
I wouldn't take him as my TE1, but I'd definately take him as a TE2 with potential for TE1 numbers.
Posted by: Reaper | May 8, 2009 09:20 AM
Shockey is the typical underacheiver that gets rated higher then necessary. In my opinion not even worth drafting because waiver wire pickups and matchups will out perform him and cause less stress then being a Shockey owner. Do you remember the last monster game by him? And even so, would it be worth over a rookie with no rated ceiling.
People writing he MAY be a top ten if he stays healthy. WOW!!! He has to light it up to be a top ten. LOL this must be the off season to find Shockeys value because during the year he has none.
IM OUT!!!
Posted by: abruzzi | May 8, 2009 10:21 AM
i would take everyone on that list above shockey. every year hes overprojected and underperforms. billy miller outplayed him laster year. this is one of those players that has "stay away" written on him every year. his risk is no where near his reward, unless u take him waaaaayy late as a TE2. then i could justify moving him. in a dynasty, i saw him being peddled for a 1st rounder... get lost. he will never live up to the hype, not to mention the fact that injuries and a laxed work ethic has sapped his "explosion". let someone else get burned by him, and just take billy miller off waivers in week 2
Posted by: scott c | May 8, 2009 11:17 AM
Both Shockey and Davis, should be below everyone on this list. I just don't get the Davis ranking, the only thing he has ever done well is the combine...that is it, that is all he has. Shockey is extremely talented, but his body is done, I thought the comparison to todd heap that someone made was perfect. it took everyone about 2 seasons to realize that Heap was no longer worth owning, I just think we are seeing the same thing happen with Shockey. I wouldn't dare own him this year.
Posted by: John M | May 8, 2009 11:40 AM
I agree with John M. on Davis. He's a track star, not a football player. He's off my draft board.
As for Shockey, no idea where I'd rank him, but he'll regardless always be drafted sooner than any prudent owner would take him.
I'd rank Brent Celek than him...he has shown a lot of upside in his few games as a starter, has a pass happy offense and a good qb, and hasn't had the health issues. Could be a much better lottery ticket than Shockey.
Posted by: Fredex | May 8, 2009 12:26 PM
i think we can all agree on Shockey being a huge disappointment. he's burned me a ton.
AND YET - it all depends on the price, but if you can get Shockey as the 9th TE off the board or lower, I think you should take him -- he's #9 on my TE board. I have him ahead of Keller and Zach Miller, because those guys have either bad or unknown QBs, whereas we know Brees loves his TEs. There's a much much higher ceiling for Shockey than those guys -- and that's really the point when you're talking about TE9 or lower. Take the guy with the 20% chance of doing great, rather than the guy with the 70% chance of doing just OK. Because if Shockey underperforms once again or gets hurt or whatever, you're not going to hesitate to cut him loose if you invested so little in him and can get a waiver wire guy whose numbers won't be much below Keller/Zach. It's all about the rate of return on your investment, and Shockey has a high, if unlikely, ceiling in that offense.
Posted by: veggieb | May 8, 2009 01:00 PM