I might bump him up above Zach Miller, if only because of the quarterback situation and the type of offense in New Orleans. If Shockey can stay on the field, the touchdowns are going to come. He needs to stay healthy though to get that chemistry with Drew Brees in the redzone.

Carlson needs to be bumped up...I'd start him over Miller, Davis, Celek, or Miller...and that was with Hasselbeck hurting last year.

Shockey gets the nod ahead of Carlson because that offense is so sick...but who knows how much more Brees will throw to him...he's got so many weapons not to mention an assumed healthy Bush.

In terms of talent, health, situation, and upside, it's hard not to feel Shockey should be higher than 10th.

There are two large reasons for concern, however. 1) Shockey's efficiency numbers have been pretty uniformly bad throughout his career. 2) The Saints offense while yielding many Red Zone possessions tends to be overly democratic in the way TDs are scored. TEs have scored few TDs in New Orleans in the last 3 years. This is ostensibly why they brought in Shockey, but his goose egg a year ago is discouraging. Clearly his injuries played a role, but 67 targets without a TD is a red flag.

Projecting TE touchdowns is even more random than most other positions, but it's difficult to have a high projection for someone who has scored only 3 TDs on their last 160 targets.

I think you have him pretty much right.

I think his company sounds about right, but John Carlson should be way higher than Shockey. And I think Owen Daniels should be much higher, too.

Shockey is on my do-not-draft list. I'll let him be someone else's problem. He's just too likely to have lingering injuries that take up an extra roster spot for a position with low blow-up potential. In other words, he's too likely to do what he did last year - get injured and make you burn a roster spot holding on to him hoping he'll get healthy and blow up, and then when he does get healthy, he still won't produce enough to make it worth it.

He's not a high priority red-zone option in New Orleans. It seems New Orlean's opinion of him may even be that he's equivalent to Billy Miller. Regardless, he is well behind Reggie Bush and Marques Colston as passing TD targets. (Remember that Bush and Colston will be the top 2 Saints receivers and so Shockey will always be option 3 at best.)

Great posts. We'll do something on Carlson later, hopefully. But the reason he is "low" (not really, still top 15) is because last year's production was highly situation dependent. The Seahawks' receiver corps was decimated by injury and Carlson was essentially the only pass catcher left standing.

Carlson is a big-league player. He should've been a first-round pick a year ago, but a horrific decline in the Notre Dame offense during his senior season and a shockingly slow forty time (4.89) at the Combine while Carlson was battling the stomach flu badly hurt his stock. Carlson is a good athlete, however (played hoops at ND), came from a pro-style college offense, and he is a very capable blocker. He was pro-ready in every way.

Of course he's going to start off well.

This year he has T.J. Houshmandzadeh to compete with for targets over the middle. Houshmandzadeh is expected to play often in the slot. There figures to be rotation outside involving Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu, third-round pick Deon Butler, and many more. Butler also has experience in the slot from his Penn State days. Housh is supposed to be the main guy in there, though. Carlson will play as an in-line blocker more as new coordinator Greg Knapp shies from the four-receiver sets Mike Holmgren loved and rolls with more basic, traditional formations.

Next, I greatly fear that Carlson will be blocking very, very often. The Seahawks let top blocking TE Will Heller go in free agency. Both of their offensive tackles are coming off serious injury. RT Sean Locklear dislocated his toe late last season and LT Walter Jones underwent microfracture surgery. He may not practice until deep in training camp, if Seattle is lucky. Jones, in particular, will need "help" blocks often. It remains to be seen what's left of Jones' mobility coming off such a serious surgery at age 35.

Carlson will be assisting the tackles often. Houshmandzadeh will steal looks over the middle and in the red zone. Coordinator Knapp is also intent on a "50-50" run to pass ratio, whereas Mike Holmgren always wanted to throw the rock. Carlson's 11th-most targets among TEs from a year ago will decline. We assume he'll stay highly efficient, but I projected a 51-561-4 line after he posted 55-627-5 last season. Carlson will stay productive, but do his damage around the line of scrimmage more. Celek, Shockey, and Davis (we can get to him later too -- but he's unbelievably happy Mike Martz is gone) all have much more fantasy upside, as I see it.

It's worth noting that Gregg is in agreement with the "move Carlson up" idea, so he will get moved up. But I'm gonna try to keep Carlson at least just below Shockey.

Difference between Carlson and Shockey...if your assessment of Carlson is correct, we'll know pretty early in the season and can move on.

With Shockey, he'll linger and we'll feel like we can't cut him. I'm still not drafting him...although I'm perfectly happy if you work to convince the people I play against that they should fight over him.

Todd Heap anyone?...I view Shockey in the same light as Heap, and that is spectacular talent and never reaching potential because of injuries. Not only would I not draft him, but I would take Miller, Utect, Carlson, and Santi over him. There is no way he gets moore than 7 games 3 TDs. Oh and Greg Olsen will be a top 4 TE. Clark, T Gon, Witten, Olsen, Gates.