Tough to Rank: DeAngelo Williams
Time for everyone's favorite short-lived running segment from last year I forgot about: Tough to Rank. In it, I bring up a player that could seemingly go in any direction and throw it to the floor to find out your infinite wisdom.
First up is last year's Fantasy MVP: DeAngelo Williams. In the first half of last season, Williams was the RB19: 620 total yards, five scores. In the second half, he went bonkers: 1,038 total yards, 15 scores!
The Panthers had 500 rushing attempts and 30 rushing scores last year. Those overall numbers are likely to fall with a tougher schedule that includes both Eastern Divisions.
So which guy do we get this year? Jonathan Stewart had 89 fewer carries than Williams last year; will he close the gap?
Early Mock Draft data has Williams going as a mid-to-late first-round pick. My tone here probably makes it obvious that I see that as tough to swallow. But obviously we can't dismiss last year's top scorer. Let me know where you think he fits.
Comments
I take AP, MJD, Chris Johnson, Gore, Stephen Jackson, Forte before him.
I take Fitz, R. Moss, Andre Johnson, Westbrook, Turner, Calvin Johnson about the same time. I think late 1st is about the right spot.
You can't ignore either the first half of last season or the second half. Both are possible directions. With the 8th-10th pick Williams is a guy who wins you the league or sends you to last. I probably nab a top wr instead for safety reasons but I can't argue with getting the best player in fantasy last year at anypoint after 7.
Posted by: Kirby | May 4, 2009 03:47 PM
RBs are the hardest position to gauge year to year as value changes dramatically. Look at last year's top 12 dynasty RBs (pretty much approx redraft.) 50% (6) are not in this year's top 12. With injuries, age, a low learning curve and talent aplenty, change is dramatic. IMHO, DeAngelo falls into this group. He is this year's Marshawn Lynch, a top 8 guy last year (I think he could have been top 5.) Now what is he worth, top 20, maybe? DeAngelo obviously has a better sit, but injury risk is there and Stewart has loads of talent. I would rank him top 12, with top 8 upside. Downside could be top 20.
Posted by: Mike | May 4, 2009 04:23 PM
Stewart took a large majority of the goal line carries last yr too he had almsot 10 tds himself. D Will scores a lot from outside the 5 he is a big play runner and the only thing that would hurt him this yr is the progressions of J Stew.
Posted by: PB | May 4, 2009 04:44 PM
none of you need worry about when to draft DeAngelo because inevitably some guy in your league who only looks at last year's stats will draft him before you even pick.
regression to the mean is a bitch. having said that, late 1st does seem about right as Kirby notes. when you actually start listing the guys you'd take ahead of him, it's not that huge of a list. i haven't looked closely yet, but DeAngelo getting 55% of the RB touches on a run-heavy team with a sweet OL is actually a safer bet than the "boom-bust" pick that people are labeling him as. no doubt that there is boom-bust risk on a week-to-week basis, but you can't let that dictate your draft too much. or maybe i just feel that way because i lost an SB last year entirely because of that 4 TD game against NYG....
Posted by: veggieb | May 4, 2009 04:47 PM
I have him #9, behind Forte, Peterson, MJD, S-Jax, Portis, Slaton, Brees, and Chris Johnson. Who else would you take in front of him? Gore's questionable injury history makes him lower, Lynch will lose games to injury, Ronnie Brown is splitting carries, Fitzgerald is due for a major correction and Michael Turner is up against the curse of 370.
Posted by: Nick W | May 4, 2009 04:51 PM
That should be suspension, not injury, for Lynch...
Posted by: Nick W | May 4, 2009 04:52 PM
20 td's is not an accident. Name a 20 td season that was a fluke? If you pass him you'll regret it. He's a beast..
Posted by: Chuck | May 4, 2009 04:52 PM