Tough to Rank: DeAngelo Williams

Time for everyone's favorite short-lived running segment from last year I forgot about: Tough to Rank. In it, I bring up a player that could seemingly go in any direction and throw it to the floor to find out your infinite wisdom.
First up is last year's Fantasy MVP: DeAngelo Williams. In the first half of last season, Williams was the RB19: 620 total yards, five scores. In the second half, he went bonkers: 1,038 total yards, 15 scores!
The Panthers had 500 rushing attempts and 30 rushing scores last year. Those overall numbers are likely to fall with a tougher schedule that includes both Eastern Divisions.
So which guy do we get this year? Jonathan Stewart had 89 fewer carries than Williams last year; will he close the gap?
Early Mock Draft data has Williams going as a mid-to-late first-round pick. My tone here probably makes it obvious that I see that as tough to swallow. But obviously we can't dismiss last year's top scorer. Let me know where you think he fits.





Comments
D-Will is being overrated going into 2009. No way he's even close to 20 tds this season. I'd take him late in the 2nd round and no earlier. Something's going to happen to hurt his number this year, be it injury or Stewart getting more carries. Sell high if you have him.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | May 4, 2009 09:42 AM
He's a mid-first rounder at the latest. When you watch this guy run, it is pretty obvious he is the best RB in football. As it did in the second half last year, that will translate again this year. Remember what he did to the Giants? 4 TD's. I'm not sure facing the East will be a significant detriment to his production. I project Stewart to be banged up and even if he is not, the talent gap between Dengelo and him is too great to give Stewart any more carries than he had last year.
Posted by: Dude | May 4, 2009 10:19 AM
We all have to remember that this is the same guy who 2 years ago couldnt beat DeShaun Foster out of a time share.
Prompting the Panthers to upgrade not only their O-Line but RB positions in the first round. Selecting RB Jonathan Stewart and woulda/coulda/shoulda-been Rookie of the Year canidate OL Jeff Otah.
Stewarts value all depends on which week he stubs his toe and rushes for 32 yards on 19 carries. Then the most talented backup in the NFL gets to take over.
Posted by: Wes Hale | May 4, 2009 10:45 AM
He's too boom or bust to pick early. I think he should be ranked around the same as Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush, personally. Thinking strictly non ppr.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 4, 2009 11:11 AM
I don't know how to rank him either, but I am lucky because I am in mostly keeper/dynasties and don't have to worry about it.
I would probably gamble on him being productive, even though it is a risk-- the worst mistake I made last year was refusing to budge on a trade offer around Week 6 because I decided that DeAngelo wasn't worth giving up anything for.
Had I made that trade, I would have both DeAngelo and Stewart on my dynasty... as it is now, I have Stewart and have no idea what value he has. Should I trade him for Donald Brown, to handcuff with Addai? Should I give up a ton to get DeAngelo? Trade Stewart himself? At a loss.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 4, 2009 11:13 AM
Before last season I drafted J.Stewart with the first overall pick in my dynasty league's rookie draft. I then acquired Williams in a trade (straight up for Selvin Young...hehe) as a handcuff for Stewart. Amazing how a player's value can change in one season. I do see Stewart eating into Williams' numbers this year, especially down by the goal-line. A lot of Williams' touchdowns last year were from inside the 5 yard line. I could see the Panthers bringing Stewart in for more goal-line work this year. I think Williams still will get the majority of the carries between the 20's, though. So does this make Williams a sell-high?
Posted by: Reaper | May 4, 2009 11:13 AM
Williams is a better version of Julius Jones when he was in Dallas. Add about 20% to that production and you get Williams this year. TD's will be vultured by Stewart (as long as he stays healthy)
Posted by: Matt G | May 4, 2009 11:47 AM