Shiancoe is a No-Go in '09
A sixth-year breakout? Yep, Visanthe Shiancoe turned in career-highs in every meaningful category last season, finishing as the fantasy TE5. There is little to like about the former Morgan State Bear's situation for 2009, however.
Six glaring negatives:
1. Shiancoe's 2008 production was situation dependent. Flanker Sidney Rice battled knee problems for the entire season, finishing with just 15 catches. Shiancoe was essentially forced into the "No. 2 receiver" role behind Bernard Berrian.
2. Coach Brad Childress still wasn't in any rush to get Shiancoe the rock. While his efficiency was a plus, Shiancoe finished 21st among NFL tight ends in targets. Shiancoe was almost strictly a blocker in his first five seasons, and Chilly didn't necessarily want that to change.
3. Percy Harvin will steal his underneath targets. Rice, the Vikings' top red-zone talent, returns healthy and has impressed at OTAs. Coordinator Darrell Bevell will employ more three-receiver looks with Harvin in the slot. Harvin is obviously more explosive than Shiancoe and is Minnesota's new go-to inside receiver.
4. Shiancoe will be in-line blocking often, as immobile rookie Phil Loadholt is slated to start at right tackle. Loadholt struggled with speed rushers at Oklahoma and will have his hands full with the likes of Adewale Ogunleye, Dewayne White, and Aaron Kampman in the NFC North. Loadholt will need help.
5. Shiancoe's 2008 yards-per-catch average and touchdown total are unsustainable. His 14.2 YPC ranked third in the NFL among tight ends with more than 20 receptions. Rice's injury forced Shiancoe to run more vertical routes. Shiancoe's pre-2008 YPC was a Jermaine Wiggins-esque 9.3. Rice, who's scored on a whopping 17.4% of his career catches, will also steal touchdowns. The sample size is admittedly stretching, but T.O.'s career TD rate is 14.6%. It was 12.6% in Owens' first two seasons.
6. Childress' offense remains run heavy. With Harvin in the slot, Rice back, and Berrian split out wide, there simply aren't enough targets to go around for Shiancoe to repeat his 2008 numbers. Shiancoe has proved that he can impact the passing game when needed, but it's no longer necessary.
Shiancoe's 2008 line: 42 REC, 596 YDS, 7 TDs (TE5)
Our 2009 Projection: 36 REC, 450 YDS, 4 TDs (TE18)
Please, do not draft this guy.
Comments
Fantastic post.
Posted by: Wesseling | May 29, 2009 03:22 PM
also, the good build-up piece on Rice is encouraging for his troubled owners.
Posted by: scott c | May 29, 2009 04:03 PM
He's the anti-Cedric Benson: you really want to draft him, but you shouldn't!
Posted by: SteveG | May 30, 2009 11:01 AM
Two things to consider: Firstly, while I cannot comment on his career with the Giants, Shiancoe (as a Viking) has been a pass catcher in a run first offence, which has necessitated an above average amount of blocking. He will never be confused for Jim Kleinsasser, the Vikings true blocking Tight End. While his numbers improved in last year, it was more from not dropping everything in sight, rather than from any injury to Rice. Secondly, while the point is valid that all the Vikings options have improved (Berrian, healthy Rice, Harvin, and some guy named Peterson), remember that the one guy who will therefore never be schemed for is Shiancoe. He should see an awful lot of soft coverage from your average linebacker or dropping DE. I'm not saying he wil duplicate last year's numbers...but it wouldn't surprise me.
Posted by: Boesy | June 1, 2009 03:12 PM
I'd actually argue that Sidney Rice will see the soft coverage. Like Todd Heap with Jared Gaither last year, Shiancoe will be helping Loadholt.
Posted by: evan | June 3, 2009 12:37 AM
xoKBzy comment1 ,
Posted by: Abbawhui | June 25, 2009 05:41 AM
xoKBzy comment1 ,
Posted by: Abbawhui | June 25, 2009 05:41 AM