Tough to Rank: Seattle running game
Four days and counting until our magazine is all done. Apologies about the lack of content in the meantime, but I have Silva and Wesseling chained in the Rotoworld headquarters basement fixing all of my mistakes.
I don't like Julius Jones at this point. Who does? I never liked T.J. Duckett.
But the more I marinate on the Seattle running game, the more I find myself ranking them a bit higher than I'm comfortable with.
It's the ultimate battle of situation vs. talent. Situation often makes fantasy value, but the player still needs to have a baseline of talent to take advantage.
The situation certainly plays in Jones and Duckett's favor. Seattle is installing a run-first zone blocking scheme this year that seems likely to have 400 carries for their running backs. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has constructed a powerful running game wherever he has gone, and there is practically no depth behind the top two. Knapp coached Duckett during his best days in Atlanta.
Again, no one is in love with these guys. But every player has value at a certain point in the draft. My current projections has Jones around 35th and Duckett 53rd at running back. I've seen Jones sitting there in round ten and eleven in early drafts, meaning he won't cost much.
But I suspect those numbers will be higher than their ADP, meaning Rotoworld readers could have them on the end of the bench. Should that keep me up at night?
Comments
boy...Edgerrin James wouldn't look too bad in Seattle, would he?
Posted by: Bart | May 11, 2009 05:21 PM
In the 10th round or later, you could do worse than a Seattle back. Their schedule looks quite nice, too. Certainly not going to be your week 1 starter, but seeing how some defenses matchup and how the carries shake out in Seattle, you could certainly find opportunities to use them.
I'd rather have JJ than Duckett. When was the last time TJ Duckett did anything useful at all?
Posted by: Dennis | May 11, 2009 05:56 PM
Julius Jones in 2008 on 158 carries -- 4.4 YPV.
Just sayin'
Posted by: Couch Potato | May 11, 2009 07:00 PM
YPC that is.
Posted by: Couch Potato | May 11, 2009 07:01 PM
Running backs with little competition for carries are essentially lottery tickets and well worth a late draft pick and roster spot.
RB is a position of attrition due to the wear and tear, and likelihood of injury. You're gonna need a stable over the course of the season. And in a good matchup a back like JJ might be the difference in just one fantasy victory a year... Most of us know the difference one win or loss can make in a season.
And as Gregg alluded, while JJ may not be a sexy pick... starting RB's always have some value due to scarcity.
Posted by: Stephen | May 11, 2009 08:46 PM
Last year I suspected that Seattle brought Duckett in for Mora's first year. Holmgren didn't know what to do with him, and said as much... now Seattle seems content with Jones and Duckett in tandem going into the season.
Since both Mora and Knapp have a history of putting up strong rushing numbers with average talent, I expect both guys to be passable at some point during the season.
Posted by: Chad F. | May 11, 2009 10:23 PM
What do you think the possiblity of a reunion of Vick and Mora? I mean Hasselbeck isn't the most reliable starter. Vick can be the #2 & speacial package QB for them until Matt gets hurt.
Posted by: Daniel | May 15, 2009 03:47 AM