Tough to Rank: Seattle running game
Four days and counting until our magazine is all done. Apologies about the lack of content in the meantime, but I have Silva and Wesseling chained in the Rotoworld headquarters basement fixing all of my mistakes.
I don't like Julius Jones at this point. Who does? I never liked T.J. Duckett.
But the more I marinate on the Seattle running game, the more I find myself ranking them a bit higher than I'm comfortable with.
It's the ultimate battle of situation vs. talent. Situation often makes fantasy value, but the player still needs to have a baseline of talent to take advantage.
The situation certainly plays in Jones and Duckett's favor. Seattle is installing a run-first zone blocking scheme this year that seems likely to have 400 carries for their running backs. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has constructed a powerful running game wherever he has gone, and there is practically no depth behind the top two. Knapp coached Duckett during his best days in Atlanta.
Again, no one is in love with these guys. But every player has value at a certain point in the draft. My current projections has Jones around 35th and Duckett 53rd at running back. I've seen Jones sitting there in round ten and eleven in early drafts, meaning he won't cost much.
But I suspect those numbers will be higher than their ADP, meaning Rotoworld readers could have them on the end of the bench. Should that keep me up at night?
Comments
If Greg Knapp can make Justin Fargas fantasy worthy, you'd think he'd be able to work some of that same magic with these two. If forced to choose between the two, I'd probably take Duckett first solely on the fact that he'll be the one scoring all of the touchdowns.
Posted by: Reaper | May 11, 2009 01:16 PM
weren't people hot and bothered about JJ last year and didn't he disappoint us then too? as always, it depends on the price, and sure if you can get a guy with all-but-guaranteed allotment of carries, then that's a fine late pick. i guess this conversation would be easier with a better point of reference -- i haven't studied this enough to know who the other RBs around 35th that we're comparing JJ to. sounds about right though. might depend on whom your other RBs are and whether you need some safe numbers at that bench spot or not.
Posted by: veggieb | May 11, 2009 01:57 PM
Knapp has had nice running games, but he has also had Tom Cable with him instituting those running games. Unless I see Jones sitting there in round 10 or under I am staying away...
Posted by: Roy | May 11, 2009 02:01 PM
id rather have duckett at this point, and by that i mean wayyyyy into the draft. theres some players u just dont touch, no matter the "situation", and JJ is one of them. he just plain sucks. maybe they got a good backup somewhere u can pick off waivers when he disapoints again.
Posted by: scott c | May 11, 2009 02:53 PM
The situation in Seattle is obviously going to be a RBBC, with Jones running between the 20's and Duckett down at the goal-line. Any chance that Justin Forsett is given a shot after J.Jones fails to impress for yet another year?
The Seahawks can't be expecting consistent production out of Jones this year. Jim Mora Jr. was there last season when Jones joined the team and couldn't manage to keep Maurice Morris and Leonard Weaver off the field. Mora has to know what he's working with.
Posted by: Reaper | May 11, 2009 03:44 PM
Look, nobody wants to drive a 2003 Chevy Cavilier... but I suppose if the price is right I would consider it.
Posted by: Davie Ricky | May 11, 2009 03:49 PM
classic -- anyone wanna buy my 98 Cavalier?
Posted by: veggieb | May 11, 2009 04:59 PM