Joe Flacco's ceiling
Awesome work yesterday by Wesseling with his Dynasty QB rankings and all the comments. (Disagreement is good!)
Wess' placement of Joe Flacco got me thinking how we all view Flacco's ceiling. Is this guy a future stud or just a good quarterback? The short-term prospects aren't terrific for an explosive offense in Baltimore, but few rookie quarterbacks have ever produced more. Owners often don't grade rookie QBs on enough of a sliding scale, and this may especially be true after Matt Ryan's bonzo year. Flacco was highly impressive with a mediocre supporting cast.
Here are the top eleven rookie QB seasons in the last 47 years, ranked by fantasy points.
1. Jim Kelly
2. Peyton Manning
3. Matt Ryan
4. Vince Young
5. Joe Flacco
6. Warren Moon
7. Rick Mirer
8. Butch Songin
9. Fran Tarkenton
10. Dan Marino
11. Ben Roethlisberger
Kelly was 26 years old, Moon was 28, and Songin was 36 when they were rookies, so you can almost throw them out. Flacco was middle of the pack among this group with a 6.94 YPA, so it wasn't all about getting attempts. Mirer and Young have the lowest YPAs as rookies by far. They look like the worst pros. Mirer only played as a rookie because of injuries in front of him and didn't play well.
Flacco was a tough projection coming out of college and remains one, but his upside seems understated by most. My point here is not that Joe Flacco will be an all-time great quarterback, or even a great quarterback, but that it's absolutely in play. Matt Ryan is a safer and much better dynasty option, with a far higher floor than Flacco. But their ceilings may not be that different.
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Posted by: скачать бильярд | August 28, 2009 12:31 AM