Joe Flacco's ceiling
Awesome work yesterday by Wesseling with his Dynasty QB rankings and all the comments. (Disagreement is good!)
Wess' placement of Joe Flacco got me thinking how we all view Flacco's ceiling. Is this guy a future stud or just a good quarterback? The short-term prospects aren't terrific for an explosive offense in Baltimore, but few rookie quarterbacks have ever produced more. Owners often don't grade rookie QBs on enough of a sliding scale, and this may especially be true after Matt Ryan's bonzo year. Flacco was highly impressive with a mediocre supporting cast.
Here are the top eleven rookie QB seasons in the last 47 years, ranked by fantasy points.
1. Jim Kelly
2. Peyton Manning
3. Matt Ryan
4. Vince Young
5. Joe Flacco
6. Warren Moon
7. Rick Mirer
8. Butch Songin
9. Fran Tarkenton
10. Dan Marino
11. Ben Roethlisberger
Kelly was 26 years old, Moon was 28, and Songin was 36 when they were rookies, so you can almost throw them out. Flacco was middle of the pack among this group with a 6.94 YPA, so it wasn't all about getting attempts. Mirer and Young have the lowest YPAs as rookies by far. They look like the worst pros. Mirer only played as a rookie because of injuries in front of him and didn't play well.
Flacco was a tough projection coming out of college and remains one, but his upside seems understated by most. My point here is not that Joe Flacco will be an all-time great quarterback, or even a great quarterback, but that it's absolutely in play. Matt Ryan is a safer and much better dynasty option, with a far higher floor than Flacco. But their ceilings may not be that different.
Comments
i'm one of those who is probably being colored a bit too much by the ravens' current roster. they've been run-heavy and have had subpar WR's (not to mention a strong defense) for so long that it's hard to get out of the mindset that a Baltimore QB is unlikely to mean much in fantasy. no doubt that Flacco played far better than expected. change happens fast in the NFL, but his situation makes it hard to be too optimistic. maybe if you're in a dynasty that starts 2 QBs you'd feel better about having him as a potential QB2 with some hope of some upside, but in a league that starts only one QB, he's a stash with a ceiling that just doesn't seem high enough.
but maybe the folks who think you can win a dynasty league with Garrard as your QB will tell me I'm wrong :-)
Posted by: veggieb | May 22, 2009 12:59 PM
Funny, I have both Flacco and Garrard in a 2 QB Dynasty league.....and am the reigning champ. runner up year prior.
Posted by: Flaccodevine | May 23, 2009 03:45 PM
Agree with veggieb on this one (until the last sentence)... I view Flacco like Roethlisberger or Eli- an OK #2 who might have a big year or two along the way but never be a consistently top-producing QB1.
Posted by: jimmo | May 25, 2009 12:50 AM
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Posted by: Wowsdzpa | June 24, 2009 04:21 PM
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Posted by: Wowsdzpa | June 24, 2009 04:21 PM
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Posted by: Yamkscyt | July 13, 2009 10:07 PM
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Posted by: Yamkscyt | July 13, 2009 10:08 PM