Dynasty Rankings: Quarterbacks
Loyal readers of my Dynasty Rankings blog know that the site has been woefully neglected over the past month or two. Now that Evan, Gregg and I have been released from the basement of Rotoworld headquarters after working feverishly on the May magazine (due to hit newsstands shortly), it's well past time to update the rankings.
As this is the first official update since the April draft, I'm going to roll them out one position at a time here on the Pancakes Blocks blog. Feel free to throw in your two cents.
Tier One
1. Peyton Manning, IND | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 99
2. Drew Brees, NO | Age: 30.6 | Value Score: 99
3. Tom Brady, NE | Age: 32.1 | Value Score: 96
Tier Two
4. Matt Ryan, ATL | Age: 24.3 | Value Score: 90
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB | Age: 25.8 | Value Score: 88
6. Philip Rivers, SD | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 87
7. Jay Cutler, CHI | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 86
8. Tony Romo, DAL | Age: 29.4 | Value Score: 85
9. Donovan McNabb, PHI | Age: 32.7 | Value Score: 83
10. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT | Age: 27.5 | Value Score: 82
11. Matt Schaub, HOU | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 81
Tier Three
12. Kurt Warner, ARI | Age: 38.3 | Value Score: 74
13. Carson Palmer, CIN | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 73
14. Eli Manning, NYG | Age: 28.6 | Value Score: 68
Tier Four
15. Joe Flacco, BAL | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 58
16. Trent Edwards, BUF | Age: 25.9 | Value Score: 57
17. David Garrard, JAX | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 54
18. Matt Cassel, KC | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 52
19. Matthew Stafford, DET | Age: 21.6 | Value Score: 50
20. Mark Sanchez, NYJ | Age: 22.9 | Value Score: 48
21. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA | Age: 34.0 | Value Score: 46
Tier Five
22. Brady Quinn, CLE | Age: 24.9 | Value Score: 35
23. Jason Campbell, WAS | Age: 27.7 | Value Score: 32
24. JaMarcus Russell, OAK | Age: 24.1 | Value Score: 30
25. Chad Henne, MIA | Age: 24.2 | Value Score: 29
26. Kyle Orton, CHI | Age: 26.8 | Value Score: 27
27. Shaun Hill, SF | Age: 29.7 | Value Score: 26
Tier Six
28. Sage Rosenfels, MIN | Age: 31.5 | Value Score: 20
29. Pat White, MIA | Age: 23.6 | Value Score: 20
30. Michael Vick, ATL* | Age: 29.2 | Value Score: 18
31. Josh Freeman, TB | Age: 21.7 | Value Score: 17
32. Jake Delhomme, CAR | Age: 34.6 | Value Score: 16
Tier Seven
33. Brett Favre, UFA* | Age: 39.9 | Value Score: 12
34. Luke McCown, TB | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 12
35. Marc Bulger, STL | Age: 32.4 | Value Score: 11
36. Vince Young, TEN | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 10
37. Byron Leftwich, TB | Age: 29.6 | Value Score: 10
38. Matt Leinart, ARI | Age: 26.3 | Value Score: 9
39. Derek Anderson, CLE | Age: 26.2 | Value Score: 8
40. Kerry Collins, TEN | Age: 36.7 | Value Score: 8
41. Chad Pennington, MIA | Age: 33.2 | Value Score: 7
42. Daunte Culpepper, DET | Age: 32.7 | Value Score: 7
Tier Eight
43. Kevin Kolb, PHI | Age: 25.0 | Value Score: 5
44. Colt Brennan, WAS | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 4
45. Brian Brohm, GB | Age: 23.9 | Value Score: 4
46. Kevin O’Connell, NE | Age: 24.5 | Value Score: 3
47. Dennis Dixon, PIT | Age: 24.7 | Value Score: 3
48. Josh Johnson, TB | Age: 23.4 | Value Score: 3
49. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN | Age: 26.4 | Value Score: 3
50. Tyler Thigpen, KC | Age: 25.4 | Value Score: 3
Comments
i think early dynsty thinking (10 years ago) based itself on building a roster with few changes from year to year. but with so much turnaround, RBBC, FA, constant coaching changes, more so now, the dynasty leaguer must adapt quickly year to year similar like a redraft format. therefore the rankings are similar. the only difference now is being stuck with good players or bad players, and working ur roster through trades more so, and finding even distrobution of production between all your positions. that and the fact that u can keep ur favorite players from year to year if u so choose. oh and rookie only draft which is nice. and some leagues with salary caps and contracts also give it a added bonus to dynasty. other than that, and being able to follow "your" players all year, theres not much difference to dynasty from redraft anymore.
Posted by: scott c | May 21, 2009 05:13 PM
1 brees
2 brady
3 manning
4 rivers
5 cutler
6 romo
7 mcnabb
8 rodgers
9 ryan
10 schaub
11 ben
12 palmer
13 warner
14 eli
(big drop and now depends on preference for youth/potential over stable but mediocre points, which may depend on whom your QB1 is)
15 flacco
16 sanchez
17 stafford
18 orton
19 edwards
20 garrard
21 quinn
22 campbell
23 henne
24 cassel
25 delhomme
26 sage
27 hasselpuke
28 bulger
29 jamarcus
30 shaun hill
31 freeman
32 vince young
33 leinart
34 kolb
didn't list vick and favre because it's an even bigger crapshoot than everything else to guess what happens with them. vick's definitely higher than favre at this point unless again you are looking for a one-year lottery ticket.
Posted by: veggieb | May 21, 2009 05:40 PM
hey wess, as usual you are spot on in much of these rankings. love the work man.
couldn't agree more with your win now philosophy. many of the dynasty leaguers i play with build these 'cute' rosters with good young players and long term contracts. the only problem is, you can only start a few of them. injuries and opportunity just change too fast, you can't project much more than 2-3 years out.
i am all for getting rising talent as dynasty rosters should be built with it. however, you can win with good veterans mixed with some strong youth. give me my peyton manning, frank gore and reggie wayne because they are 'old' and i will take championships year after year. and everyone else can keep talking about next year, just like the cubs...
Posted by: joeymitch | May 21, 2009 06:00 PM
i like all the comments that "agree with winning now". i did not realize anyone was opposed!
everyone wants to win now, but it depends on what the rest of your team looks like, what the rest of the league looks like, etc. personally, i try to build a team that is going to win not just now but every year.
Posted by: veggieb | May 21, 2009 06:36 PM
I don't know. here are the starting QB's of the teams that have won in the last 5 years in my league:
2004 - Delhomme
2005 - Favre
2006 - Romo/Bulger
2007 - Roethlisberger/Eli
2008 - Peyton
Just goes to show you how much things change, yet top QBs are top QBs. Aside from Delhomme. And I won in 2006 mainly because I had the forsight to pluck Romo off the waiver wire in preseason.
Posted by: Bart | May 21, 2009 09:48 PM
Great discussion, quality debate going on. Nicely done, everybody.
I'm going to try hit on everything in one response, so here goes.
anon: Now that's funny on V.Y.
cgeezy: Great points and well put. Glad we agree.
Captain Obvious: Thanks, and I think you're spot on with Vick. I thought I would get a lot of comments saying I had him too high. I was ranking him conservatively b/c I thought I might be too optimistic after reading Evan's blog post yesterday. I couldn't agree more, and you said it better than I could. I can also envision your scenario where he goes to San Fran and is the "story of the year." Things change quickly in the NFL.
The Dude Abides: I always enjoy reading your comments. I agree that a considerable part of Dynasty value depends on your league specifics. On Orton, I just don't know how high you can rank him considering he's only signed through 2009 in Denver and is competing with Simms. I'd feel much more comfortable ranking him a tier higher if he was signed long-term. I definitely reconsider his ranking though.
Reaper: I agree on factoring in a player's age. You have to. It just depends on how much you want to make age a factor vs. other question marks. I think the concept of a Dynasty league is to win every year. I've found that the best way to do that is with a balanced nucleus of young studs and quality veterans. Obviously you're not going to want to have a stable of old running backs and T.O. to go with Peyton Manning. You have to balance it out. I happen to think the rankings differ quite a bit from redraft, but I understand your point.
veggieb: 1. Cool 2. I didn't realize how much of a head case Cutler was until recently. It's a factor now. Throw in the downgrade to Chicago, and I think he falls. 3. You should always be ready to win now, but I understand what you're saying. I don't consider Palmer a nucleus QB (way too many question marks), so I prefer the guy who has a chance to be Top-5 for the next 2 years. 4. Fair enough on Garrard. I've never been all that high on him, so I could see going with Sanchez/Stafford instead. 5. Depends who your QB1 is. If you need a possible starter, you probably wanna go with Hass. 6. Fair enough on career stats, but Hass has been a fantasy asset when healthy the past 3-4 years. Delhomme has not. (Good stuff on Elizabeth Hasselbeck too). 8. Agree to disagree. I'm not a Campbell guy.
scott c.: That's a salient point on the changes to Dynasty leagues over the past 10 years. I think there's definitely something to that.
veggieb again: Great rankings. I think we're awfully close, and I agree that there's a chasm after No. 14.
joeymitch: I think you said it well. Obviously the most valuable Dynasty leaguers are supremely talented PROVEN players still in their early prime. There just aren't that many of that species available. That's why I rank Matt Ryan so highly. It's also why I always ranked MJD as a Top-5 or Top-10 RB (and higher than Joseph Addai) when it was not popular to do so. You have to get the few that are out there before they get to the point where the owner recognizes how special they are too.
Running Backs coming Friday morning.
Posted by: Wess | May 21, 2009 11:03 PM
every time wess or silva write long comment responses, i think ... that could be a couple blog posts!
good stuff by all. except for the obvious disrespect towards chad henne.
Posted by: gregg | May 22, 2009 12:04 AM