May 29, 2009
A sixth-year breakout? Yep, Visanthe Shiancoe turned in career-highs in every meaningful category last season, finishing as the fantasy TE5. There is little to like about the former Morgan State Bear's situation for 2009, however.
Six glaring negatives:
1. Shiancoe's 2008 production was situation dependent. Flanker Sidney Rice battled knee problems for the entire season, finishing with just 15 catches. Shiancoe was essentially forced into the "No. 2 receiver" role behind Bernard Berrian.
2. Coach Brad Childress still wasn't in any rush to get Shiancoe the rock. While his efficiency was a plus, Shiancoe finished 21st among NFL tight ends in targets. Shiancoe was almost strictly a blocker in his first five seasons, and Chilly didn't necessarily want that to change.
3. Percy Harvin will steal his underneath targets. Rice, the Vikings' top red-zone talent, returns healthy and has impressed at OTAs. Coordinator Darrell Bevell will employ more three-receiver looks with Harvin in the slot. Harvin is obviously more explosive than Shiancoe and is Minnesota's new go-to inside receiver.
Continue reading "Shiancoe is a No-Go in '09" »
So in my effort to keep these blog posts around 200 words, I teased this topic at the bottom of the Jerome Harrison post. I was looking for a player that could post Jamal Lewis in '06-type numbers: Mediocre performance, but a big enough workload to have some value.
A few of you, including Evan "I can drink two Miller Lights in the time you drink one" Silva, nailed it: longtime nemesis Cedric Benson. It's not that I want to own Benson or think he'll be a killer value at his current RB32 ADP.
But he won’t crush you as a RB3/4 if he slips far enough. I'd rather own him than some guys like Lewis, LeRon McClain, and LenDale White, who are going before him. I'd rather take Benson in the eighth than LJ in the fourth because they are similar values. (I'd also rather take Donald Brown and Felix Jones, who are going behind Benson.)
Continue reading "Cedric Benson: Workload wonder?" »
May 28, 2009
Like a poor man's Jerious Norwood, Jerome Harrison has toiled in the shadows of fantasy football the last two years, with a fancy 6.8 yards-per-carry average on only 57 rushes. Eric Mangini hinted Thursday Harrison will see a lot more action this year, possibly on first and second down.
FootballOutsiders' Aaron Schatz listed Harrison as one of his breakout possibilities in our magazine, possibly because someone will have to replace Jamal Lewis' declining production. Lewis worked exclusively with trainers Thursday as he recovers from ankle surgery, but it's clear his role and skill set are declining.
On an offense with as many question marks as Cleveland, I want no part of Lewis and even Harrison is only worth a look late in PPR leagues. At best, he'll be like Leon Washington. Hoping for more is pushing it.
Lewis was taken among the top 50 picks last year by owners hoping for him to put up 300 workmanlike carries, like he did in 2007. I'd put the over/under this year closer to 200. I have some thoughts about who could be this year's version of '06 Lewis (heavy workload, mediocre production, but has value at the right cheapest possible price), but I'll save it for another post. Let's see if you can guess.
While I prepare a post (probably for tomorrow) bashing Visanthe Shiancoe to kingdom come in light of multiple commenters rushing to the Minnesota tight end's defense in Chris Wesseling's last round of Dynasty ranks, here is an update on my re-draft mock.
I feel strongly about the tight ends because Gregg "don't call me boss" Rosenthal let me rank and profile them for our magazine this year. In seasons past, I'd do kickers, defense, some low-level receivers and third-down back types.
Remember, we start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF/ST. There is no FLEX and it's one point per reception.
Continue reading "Slaton a second-round value?" »
We're down to the final position in the Pancake Blocks Dynasty rankings series. If you missed the previous editions, click the links for Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Wide Receivers.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier One
1. Jason Witten, DAL | Age: 27.4 | Value Score: 99
2. Antonio Gates, SD | Age: 29.3 | Value Score: 98
Tier Two
3. Kellen Winslow, TB | Age: 26.1 | Value Score: 90
4. Dallas Clark, IND | Age: 30.2 | Value Score: 88
5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL | Age: 33.5 | Value Score: 87
Continue reading "Dynasty Rankings: Tight Ends" »
May 27, 2009
With a little extra time in the schedule lately, and my wife starting a new job at nights, I've taken to watching some old NFL Replays and Shortcuts saved from last year. I'm a huge dork.
I watched Bengals-Cowboys from Week 5 last night, Felix Jones' best game, and saw him replace Marion Barber once on third-and-goal from the four-yard line. He didn't get the ball, but it got me thinking. Could Barber lose his red zone touches this year?
Based on last year's numbers, the answer is no. During the time Jones was healthy, he saw only one touch inside the ten-yard-line, to seven for Barber. Barber had 25 red zone touches to only three for Jones, including all the targets.
Those numbers will change with Jones getting a bigger role, but Barber should remain the bell cow near the stripe. He's a better inside runner and pass blocker. Jones should get most of his work between the 20's.
My theory with Barber this year is that Jones' presence isn't so bad for him. Barber was a fantasy star in the past with only 250 touches because of his touchdowns and receptions. He's the rare back who may have more value with less work because he's more likely to stay healthy.
In fact, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where both Barber and Jones prove to be undervalued on draft day, ala the Titans backs last year.
Still shocked that Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson were both available one spot ahead of me in this points-per-reception format, I snared Jackson at No. 8 overall after Johnson went seventh. Veteran commenters Kirby, Juggs, and Captain Obvious from the prior post provided sound analysis, making the decision fairly easy. Aside from Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew, no NFL back has as much upside as S-Jax in this setting. He may even have a higher ceiling than Peterson because Chester Taylor dominates third downs in Minnesota.
Jackson is an every-down back in an offense that's upgraded its line with two high-priced Jasons (Brown, Smith) and should benefit from new coordinator Pat Shurmur's ball-control mindset. The Rams are inexperienced at wideout, but have sub-4.3 burners Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery to keep opposing safeties honest. Keenan Burton is also an intriguing possession prospect. Jackson's health is always a concern, but all running backs are injury risks and Jackson is motivated to stay healthy to hit incentives in his production-based contract.
The Rams have a similar situation to Washington's last year. Like Redskins coach Jim Zorn in '08, Shurmur is installing a West Coast offense. Like Clinton Portis, Jackson will be force fed a heavy dose of carries during the transition period. Let's hope he holds up.
The owner at No. 7's explanation for his pick:
There are several backs still on the board who would be nice here but several have shakier offensive outlook. I like what I hear out of SF regarding Gore and I have hope that Steve Jackson will rebound as will the Rams offense. But neither is a sure thing. Chris Johnson has the skills to be an every down back and while LenDale May vulture some TDs, and Javon Ringer might spell him a bit, Johnson will continue to be an integral part of the Titans offense which they will look to often.
Here's where we are after eight selections:
Continue reading "Mock Draft Update: Rotoworld gets S-Jax" »
I'm currently involved in a 12-team re-draft mock with others in the industry. For now it's only a "mock," but we may wind up playing it out. From the looks of whom I'm going to get at No. 8 overall, I'm hoping to.
This is a points-per-reception league with 4 points for passing touchdowns, 6 for rushing scores, and 6 for receiving.
Here's who's gone so far:
1. Maurice Jones-Drew
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Brian Westbrook (surprise)
4. LaDainian Tomlinson (surprise 2)
5. Michael Turner
6. Matt Forte (biggest steal so far)
7. On the board
8. Evan Silva
Continue reading "In-Progress Mock Draft" »
May 26, 2009
It was widely presumed that Matt Jones would be suspended to open the 2009 season after he was jailed in March for violating his probation stemming from a July 2008 arrest for cocaine possession. The original cocaine charge resulted in last year's Week 15-17 suspension.
Now comes word that Jones is on the hook for a mere $50,000 fine, which he's appealing. He's eligible to play in Week 1 and free to sign with any team after Jacksonville released him in March.
Continue reading "Matt Jones Avoids Suspension" »
We're rolling out the Dynasty rankings one position at a time on Pancake Blocks, with wide receivers entering the spotlight after a fine Memorial Day weekend. If you missed last week's rankings, click the links for Quarterbacks and Running Backs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier One
1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 100
2. Calvin Johnson, DET | Age: 24.0 | Value Score: 100
3. Andre Johnson, HOU | Age: 28.2 | Value Score: 99
Tier Two
4. Randy Moss, NE | Age: 32.6 | Value Score: 94
5. Steve Smith, CAR | Age: 30.3 | Value Score: 94
6. Greg Jennings, GB | Age: 26.0 | Value Score: 93
7. Reggie Wayne, IND | Age: 30.8 | Value Score: 92
8. Roddy White, ATL | Age: 27.8 | Value Score: 91
Continue reading "Dynasty Rankings: Wide Receivers" »
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