We’ve already covered the fallout from the Larry Johnson grievance ruling. He carries no trade value at this point, but the Chiefs can now safely dump him without swallowing a chunk of guaranteed money. So if LJ is currently persona non grata in K.C., where is he most likely to resurface?
Saints – Michael Lombardi believes the Saints should be all over LJ should the Chiefs release him, and Sean Payton is dying to add a power back to his offense.
Seahawks – If Seattle uses the No. 4 pick on Mark Sanchez, they still have to upgrade offensive tackle and linebacker early in the draft. Running back would be left unaddressed, with Julius Jones as one of the few starters around the league who would take an immediate backseat to LJ.
Comments
No Broncos? They've added every other teams discarded RB's, why not LJ too?
Posted by: Reaper | April 8, 2009 01:24 PM
i would have thought the Jets would be pretty high on this list. thomas jones is on the wrong side of 30 and apparently they've already set his contract up to allow them the option to cut him.. and with other positions taking priority in the draft (QB? WR?), why wouldn't the Jets invest in a relatively cheap, short-term solution like LJ? he'd be the perfect compliment to leon washington in ny behind a very decent o-line - LJ for power, wash for pass-catching/change-o-pace skills. no?
Posted by: cgeezy | April 8, 2009 01:57 PM
i was thinking the same in the last LJ blog post, the saints will jump all over him if/when hes cut. i have little doubt on that. but the second team, sea, was one i didnt think of. makes sense. good list.
Posted by: scott c | April 8, 2009 02:21 PM
as an owner of Pierre Thomas, I would love it if LJ signed with NO because he would be a DOWNGRADE in terms of competition over a rookie RB at #14. LJ will most likely get hurt this year or prove ineffective. So, bring him in Coach Payton! By week 4, the RB spot will be al Pierre's!
Posted by: Bill | April 8, 2009 06:09 PM
cgeezy,
I hear what you're saying on Thomas Jones being the wrong side of 30, but LJ is staring down the barrel of age 30 himself. And Jones was a far superior player last year.
I think the Jets need a power runner to pair with Leon Washington in the future, but I don't think that power back is going to be LJ. They'll draft a back instead.
Posted by: Wess | April 8, 2009 10:18 PM
I still think LJ will go the Shaun Alexander out of the NFL route.
Mike Lombardi has a fantastic NFL site (except for the tedious and excruciatingly banal leadership drivel), but perhaps this is why he was effectively released by Denver and Oakland, two teams who clearly weren't overcrowded with quality talent evaluators.
LJ isn't a one-cut back, so he doesn't fit in places like Houston, and he does not run with power (29th in success rate a year ago according to FO). In fact, of the 49 RBs with 100 or more carries in 2009, only Justin Fargas, Tim Hightower, and Chris Perry were worse backs (DYAR and DVOA).
And it isn't all explainable by LJ's dismal offensive line. LJ was -12% in DVOA while Jamal Charles was 16.7%.
Meanwhile, Lombardi can pretend the Saints have no power rush game, but the stats tell a different story. Pierre Thomas was #1 in THE ENTIRE NFL in success rate. Based on his top 7 finish in both DYAR and DVOA, he was probably a top 5 overall back. Again, this isn't an offensive line induced mirage. Reggie Bush was nearly as bad as LJ with DYAR and DVOA numbers in the 40s and a success rate of 29. (Earlier poster Bill is correct in the Pierre Thomas versus LJ eval.)
These numbers hold up over multiple seasons as well. LJ was just as bad overall in 2007 and his success rate was even worse. Kolby Smith was significantly better with a 49% success rate to LJ's 41% (again, the line was bad but LJ was worse). It's not a good sign when you're a significantly worse back than Kolby Smith.
The same evaluation also holds true in New Orleans whereReggie Bush was even worse in '07 and Aaron Stecker was very solid for NO. In very limited time Pierre Thomas was a phenom. According to FO, NO was in the top 10 in adjusted line yards in both '07 and '08 (they ranked an average 13th and 18th in Power). NO can actually block up the run just fine . . . as long as the world's most overrated RB ever isn't carrying the ball.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | April 9, 2009 02:30 AM
I agree that the Saints have far bigger needs and that Pierre Thomas should be given every opportunity to be the 1-A this season.
However, here's an interesting article from ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas yesterday saying the Saints were the 2nd worst team in the NFL in runs up the middle.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcsouth/0-10-39/Numbers-don-t-lie-on-Saints--need-for-power-RB.html
Posted by: Wess | April 9, 2009 12:10 PM