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Marshall's surgery bodes poorly for '09

Brandon Marshall underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a hip problem that allegedly bothered him down the stretch of 2008. Marshall's catch total was not inhibited. He caught 32 balls in Denver's last four games, although he averaged only 10 yards per reception. We can guess that the hip cost him some run-after-catch ability. His career YPC to that point was 13.3 and Marshall averaged 15.0 yards a grab in college.

Marshall also only scored two touchdowns in the last seven contests. Red-zone production is an area of Marshall's game that needs improvement, but that's for another blog post.

The Broncos say Marshall will return for training camp, but he won't practice at all with Denver's new quarterback before then. Marshall's 5-6 week practice window lies between the start of camp (late July) and Week 1 (September 7 or so). The NFL usually does not allow players to work out at team headquarters during a suspension, and Marshall is virtually certain to serve a multi-game ban.

Worse, Marshall is learning a new offense. He can study Josh McDaniels' playbook during his time away, but that practice window is going to be crucial. And this is all assuming Marshall recovers on time.

Marshall proved last year that he is a good enough player to overcome adversity (arm surgery, more off-field woes, suspension to open the season) and produce at an extremely high level. He will return as an impact player. But he will be extremely difficult for Gregg Rosenthal to project.

Let's assume an eight-game suspension. In a 12-team redraft league with 15 roster spots, how early will Marshall be draftable? Will he be worth drafting at all?

Comments

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wow.. an 8 game suspension. thats a lil high. id say 4, 6 max. but i guess either way hes looking at a pretty poor season total... maybe even a lost season?? possible. who knows at this point. mid-round flier??

i feel worse for royal. hes coming of an excellent hard-worked rookie year. how do u think he feels after all this?? poor guy.

i guess it all depends on the qb they bring in. are we looking at a matt ryan, or a ryan leaf? ugh. incorporate that backfield, wow, fantasy quagmire-to-be.

I think anticipating an 8 game suspension is way too hefty, irresponsible even. The charges were dropped, nothing has been announced yet other than "the league is looking into the incident."

Regarding his injury, well he had a more significant injury last offseason when he put his forearm through a tv. Yes, i will give you that these are occurences are not ideal but he was a top 10 WR last year is only 24 and remains a fantastic dynasty league prospect.

Undraftable??? Come on, he has top 5 WR talent in the league.

Needs redzone work??? Look as far as everyone's favorite, Andre Johnson's weak TD totals his entire career. Now imagine what BM could accomplish if he gets past some of this immaturity. He is to be the Randy Moss of McDaniels offense!!!!!

"(Marshall) remains a fantastic dynasty league prospect."

There is absolutely no argument there. He is a stud. I was aiming for thoughts on Marshall's redraft value.

Well look at redraft value. You throw out the idea of an 8 game suspension- you could have said the same thing for Marshawn Lynch (repeat offender, far more serious crimes, etc) but indications are that it will only be 1-2 games. So again why will BM get 8 or anything close to that????

The injury i addressed above, again not ideal but likely not anything more difficult to return from than the shredded forearm last season and he showed no ill effects having his best game of the year in his first appearance.

Red zone production has been very good compared to consensus top 3 WR Andre Johnson.

So explain why he would ever be undrafted in any format?? 180 roster spots and "Will he be worth drafting at all?"

Even with everything that has happened his talent is too great to move him below top 15 in redraft WR rankings.

I don't think he will go undrafted. I just wanted to throw that suggestion out there in case anyone thought he wouldn't be worth holding a roster spot for in a 12x15 assuming the eight-game ban.

The idea of an eight-game ban comes from goodell's confirmation that marshall "will be viewed as a multiple offender" of the personal conduct policy, schefter's report that marshall's 3-game suspension in 2008 was reduced to one "with the 'warning' that any more run-ins with the law could lead to a 'lengthy' ban," and schefter's report (linked in blog post) that "those who know Marshall and are familiar with his case believe his next suspension will be longer — quite possibly considerably longer — than three games."

The Denver Post also has reported that "Marshall faces a lengthy suspension — perhaps as long as eight games — if NFL commissioner Roger Goodell deems Marshall to be a repeat offender of the league's personal-conduct policy."

Another reason for concern about Marshall is his brutal inefficiency. Some posters want to compare Marshall with Andre Johnson. Andre1500 has finished in the top 5 in DVOA the last two seasons and was #1 in DYAR last year. By comparison, Marshall has finished outside the top 50 in DVOA both years and was outside the top 40 in DYAR.

When a receiver in an explosive offense is that inefficient, is not an elite red zone threat, is going to lose his QB, is coming off of surgery, will be suspended, and may become the #2 target in his own offense . . . well, that's not cause for optimism.

It's also important to keep in mind that the raw numbers came on 181 targets, easily the most in the NFL. By contrast, Randy Moss had 125 targets. The Broncos are currently heading for a scenario where they have a lesser QB than Matt Cassel.

If you project Marshall for 125 targets, which could easily prove to be optimistic, his production won't look so good.

For what it's worth, KC Joyner also has Marshall massively overrated. While Marshall isn't changing teams, he might as well be in terms of the adjustments he'll have to make for next year. In such a scenario, it's much more likely he turns out to be Chris Chambers than Andre Johnson.

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