Jacksonville will not save Torry Holt
I am knee deep in wide receiver projections and outlooks for our magazine, and came upon Torry Holt this morning. Our first section is a review of the year before. It was almost painful to write about such a long-time great:
2008: So much for declining gracefully. Marc Bulger’s freefall hurt, but Holt could no longer separate from defenders, especially deep. The Rams were stuck with a small possession receiver who wasn’t explosive or physical enough to make plays after the catch. He scored once in 14 red zone targets.
When looking through the numbers and notes on Holt, I came to a depressing conclusion: he was probably lucky to get 796 yards and 64 catches last year. He finished 22nd in targets, but only 34th in yards, and 40th in fantasy points. And he had to close strong (445 yards in his last seven games) in a contract push to get there.
Now that he’s signed with Jacksonville, what has really changed? Holt is going from one of the least productive passing teams in football to one that is slightly better. He’s trading one terribly inexperienced wideout corpsfor another.
Throw in a new system to learn, and a change to playing home games on grass, and it’s hard to be optimistic. (Holt averaged 10.6 yards-per-catch on grass the last three years, 13.4 yards-per-catch on turf.)
Here’s how I wrapped up the outlook for the magazine:
Best-case scenario: Jacksonville force-feeds Holt because A) they have no other choices and B) they want to justify their signing. Even in that scenario, he will probably struggle to match last season’s numbers in a new system. Let someone else bet on a rebound; he’s a WR4.
So there it is. Someday Holt will be in Canton, but for now he’s barely ranked ahead of guys like Davone Bess and Michael Jenkins.
Editor's Note: The Mock will continue in the morning because some chowderhead is taking his sweet time on the clock.
Comments
I guess Percey's going to Tennessee now
Posted by: playo | April 20, 2009 10:58 PM
Not that I disagree persay, but I'll really laugh if the guy goes nuts this year and gets back to the Torry Holt we all remember. Hell, he's only one season removed from being that player! Everyone acts as if he's in a rapid decline and too old. He's 32 ~ Anyone ever heard of a guy named Terrell Owens? He's a monster and 4 years older! I won't draft Torry Holt as anything but a number 4 myself, but is it really that crazy to think he can come back to being a dependable number 3, or even a low end number 2?
Posted by: Ryan | April 20, 2009 10:59 PM
butchering per se and percy, way to represent 4 20 guys.
Posted by: B | April 20, 2009 11:28 PM
I'm only butchering "per se," Thanks for the grammar update though. I'm sure that reading it was just driving you insane.
Posted by: Ryan | April 21, 2009 12:03 AM
holt still has what it takes. i dont care about age. with garrard and jones drew looking good, it could open things up for holt......but let's just wait for draft!
Posted by: drew | April 21, 2009 1:07 AM
certainly its not crazy to think he could be a WR2 or WR3, far, far crazier things happen every year, and he'll get a lot of targets.
but the physical slippage started the year before. for whatever reason, some 33-year- olds are older than others.
Posted by: gregg | April 21, 2009 8:50 AM
Despite all the good karma regarding a former fantasy stud finding a new home this situation isn't condusive to fantasy #'s.
Holt is not Terrell Owens. Owens is insane about his personal health. Holt is an NFL player but I doubt he cares as much about his body as does T.O.
Holt had a tough time in STL the last few years, feuded with Linehan and STRUGGLED TO GAIN SEPARATION due to his nagging (going on 3 years now) knee injury, which HE HAS NOT HAD SURGERY ON.
Now he's "recovered" and will be playing in the AFC South NOT the NFC West with a run-first team primarily on grass. JAX overpaid but they needed a veteran guy, his help will come off-the-field not in the fantasy box scores.
Posted by: Paul | April 21, 2009 9:12 AM