Fred Jackson's window of opportunity

Fred Jackson is currently sitting out voluntary workouts over displeasure with his contract. The Bills value Jackson highly and are open to upgrading his pay, so this looks to be a minor obstacle.
Though it may be reduced upon appeal, Marshawn Lynch's three-game suspension sets up Jackson to open the season as Buffalo's starter.
Jackson was undrafted out of Coe College in 2006. He is not a homerun hitter and is built a bit oddly for a tailback at 6'1/215. He can play, however.
Jackson averages 4.6 YPC on 188 career carries. At times last season Jackson was so effective that it appeared Bills coordinator Turk Schonert preferred a Jackson-Lynch committee to keeping Lynch as his feature back. Jackson is an outstanding pass catcher and a plus-yardage threat after the reception. He's flashed the ability to carry the pile and shoulder a full load, racking up 136 yards on 27 carries in a Week 17 start against New England.
Among backs with 100+ carries in 2008, Football Outsiders ranks Jackson as the fifth-most productive back in terms of Success Rate, which measures a player's production consistency (successful running plays divided by total running plays) over the course of a season.. The Dude Abides already pointed out that Pierre Thomas ranks first. Chris Perry was last.
I've even heard it suggested that Jackson is better than Lynch.
I don't think Jackson has a realistic chance to swipe Lynch's starting job, but he's certainly in position for an increase from his 130 '08 carries, particularly if Jackson excels in the early-season games he starts. Jackson, the RB41 overall in fantasy last year, could make Buffalo's backfield into a true time split with a hot beginning. Gregg Rosenthal will probably have to project him in the top 35 as a non-PPR back and in the 25-30 range for PPR.





Comments
Pierre ranks first on success rate, not on DYAR (he is 7th). Chris Perry is last in every category though.
Posted by: Jesse | April 9, 2009 02:35 PM
thanks for catching that jesse
Posted by: evan | April 9, 2009 02:57 PM
The only way to truly rank these players is to create them in mybrute and have them duel for supremacy. Its kind of like google battles:
http://tspmutt.mybrute.com/
Posted by: ThatGuy | April 9, 2009 03:01 PM
Can we get this "mybrute" guy banned from the blogs or something...
Posted by: Reaper | April 9, 2009 03:39 PM
This is what I am talking about Roto!
Posted by: bill | April 9, 2009 04:27 PM
Ive thought Fred Jackson is a more explosive back than Lynch for most games last year. He just seemed to do more with the ball when he got it.
Isnt that what makes a great RB? Results?
Posted by: Matt G | April 9, 2009 06:16 PM
I don't know who's the better runner, but Jackson is certainly the better driver of the two.
Posted by: Fredex | April 9, 2009 06:52 PM