Chris Johnson, All Day thrive despite Stuffs
I can't help but follow up on Chris' post yesterday after doing some work on my running back outlooks. While the Saints reportedly were interested in trading up for Beanie Wells, their need for a big back was vastly overstated.
Pierre Thomas was the hardest player in the NFC to stop for no gain or a loss of yardage last year. That's a pretty important short-yardage skill. He also led the NFC in % of touchdowns on runs inside the ten-yard line and first downs/carry. Go through almost any short-yardage metric and Thomas did very well. They don't need a bruiser.
On the flip side is one of our favorite players: Chris Johnson.
Only Dominic Rhodes was "stuffed" at or behind the line of scrimmage a higher percentage of times than Johnson. I love the kid, and will rank him in the top-five overall picks this season, but the Titans weren't totally irrational handing LenDale White 21 carries inside the five-yard line, to only four for Johnson. I suspect "Flash: will improve his boom-or-bust nature this year, while "Dash" sits more on the bench.
Efficiency is important on the field, but it's not that big a deal in in fantasy football. Adrian Peterson led the NFL in total "stuffs" last year, but he still rushed for 1,780 yards with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average. The big plays more than make up for it in fantasy. Look for Peterson and Johnson to compete again for the most big-play rushes in the league.
Comments
Shenanigans!
Posted by: McIrish | April 30, 2009 05:53 PM
This is why it can be so misleading simply eyeballing stuff. Lombardi is constantly ripping Pierre for lack of leg drive in short yardage and claiming the Saints should look at LJ should he become available. That's despite the fact that LJ would be a MASSIVE DOWNGRADE in short yardage.
I think Sean Peyton's lip service to adding another back is just PR to deal with the constant criticism he gets for his offense from New Orleans fans (which just shows how irrational and absurd home fans can be).
I think he knows the numbers and knows how good Pierre is. (Thomas was also an elite receiving back last year according to FO, much better than Bush, who is above average, if still overhyped, in the pass game.) And I think he plans to run his team the same way again next year. The Saints were among the unluckiest teams in the NFL last year, a trend that's unlikely to continue.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | April 30, 2009 07:56 PM
how was Pierre better than Bush receiving again last year, exactly? not debating, just want to see if im missing something
Posted by: scott c | April 30, 2009 09:17 PM
DYAR & DVOA. Substantially better in DVOA, less so in DYAR, though the gap between Thomas and Bush (#s 6 & 7 in DYAR) was greater than the gap between Bush and the #11 back. For what its worth.
Posted by: jimmo | May 1, 2009 01:18 AM
For what's worth Chris Johnson also fares pretty well in FO's stats. So even though his "success rate" is down, he makes up for it. He's not all boom or bust.
Posted by: Gregg | May 1, 2009 09:47 AM
3o63Nr comment3 ,
Posted by: Vswnvvqb | June 25, 2009 05:43 PM