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Oklahoma Drill: Will Edwards top 20 TDs?

Editor's Note: Rotoworld news is written anonymously with one voice, but we have our share of disagreements. We just "settle" them offline. Until now. In a feature we're calling Face Off Oklahoma Drill, we'll feature two Pancake Blocks writers entering the ring.

Gregg: I'm starting to set up a preliminary rankings board this week. One player I know you'll think I have too high is Trent Edwards.

T.O. could cause headaches long-term but I say they get the honeymoon period for most of the season, the Bills start throwing a lot more, and Edwards tops 20 TDs. I don't think that makes him a QB1, but he'll be a good value.

Evan: He won't be a good value because everyone will think he's a good value. T.O. helps, but Bills quarterbacks don't throw 20 touchdowns, almost by rule. In that terrible weather, they've had a 20-touchdown passer in just three of the last 13 seasons.

Edwards also averages .78 TD per start in his career. To throw 20 TDs, you definitely have to throw more than one a game.

Gregg: Eh I'm not too worried about what Rob Johnson and J.P. Losman haven't done. The Buffalo weather is a concern in December, but it won't crush his season. You always just dog Edwards because he's from the same draft class as your boy Brady Quinn and is set to have a better career. And he went to a better school!

Evan: I'm sure NBC appreciates any Notre Dame loyalty. And you just like Edwards because you have him in dynasty, but I didn't plan to get personal. I will say that Edwards has an outside chance at 20 TDs if he plays a full season. But he's done that once since his senior year in high school. He's like Samuel L. in Unbreakable.

Gregg:You not taking the Brady Quinn bait there was the upset of the century. That needs to be another Oklahoma drill. Anyhow, I like Edwards because the game wasn't too big for him as a rookie. There was a calm, an ability to make quick decisions that ultimately defines great QBs. He looked shaken by the end of last year, but the numbers - 7.2 YPA, 65% completion - bode well for a second year starter.

He's always been limited by his weapons, but now has one of the best starting duos in the league. I think he consolidates his gains, they spread defenses out, pass like crazy, and Edwards' numbers soar. And I don't think he'll get drafted higher than QB20, so he won't cost much.

Evan: I like Edwards' peripheral #s too, but strongly doubt a Dick Jauron team will ever pass like crazy. I'd also argue that Edwards has been limited by his injury proneness, environment, and preference to dink and dunk just as much as his supporting cast.

Unlike another oft-injured passer with great peripherals we liked for a recent leap (Matt Schaub), Edwards lacks the innate aggressiveness for a major statistical surge.

Gregg: Jauron is no Gary Kubiak, no doubt. But I do think Edwards and the offense will get far more aggressive this season because of his growing maturity and Owens. This is an offense that threw from a 4-WR set about as often as a 2-WR set and has an intriguing piece with Roscoe Parrish inside.

In the end, we may have agreed to much for this Oklahoma Drill. Our 15-minute IM debate over whether Deion Branch could get cut was better, even if no one cares about Deion Branch.

Comments

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I think Evan is putting way too much emphasis on the weather. It's only a concern in December, and even then it's not really worse than in Green Bay, Chicago, NYC or even Foxboro. Plus, the Bills get to play one of their December home games inside a dome (in Toronto).

Ok, which one of you was Skip and which was Woody in this role playing extravaganza?

lol... i love these

nice stab at branch at the end there. i think gregg wins this one. i wouldnt say he left silva flat on his back in the drill, but he got the upper hand at least.

edwards will be better this year than last. no doubt. his ceiling increased with TO, and his value is better than his likely draft position. 20td is very realistic. now, 3500yds, thats debatable.

Evan makes some good points re: the Bills offensive tendencies and the affect Buffalo elements. . . .

But I'm siding with Gregg on this one. Fantasy experts never give enough credit to the affect of dominant wide receivers on the team's potential for a newfound offensive explosion.

T.O. is a dominant talent, and Lee Evans is flying under the radar. I still believe Evans is an elite talent who has been held back by poor quarterback play, constant double teaming, and a conservative offensive attack.

Edwards' completion percentage and YPA numbers bode well for improvement even after a poor second half in 2008. The combination of T.O. and Lee Evans is going to open up this offense to an extent greater than conventional wisdom holds.

Evan,

whats your take on BakesaleII (Hakeem Nicks) on the recent news. still worth that second spot? i need a quality dynasty receiver, but dont want Mike Williams2009.

thats supposed to say Bakesale2

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