Is Pierre Thomas a sell-high?
Lot of chatter on the blog lately on the Saints' desire to take a big back. Silva doesn't see the Saints taking Beanie Wells, and I agree. Wesseling wonders if Thomas could see his value get hammered on draft day.
It brings up a question that I have as a Thomas owner: Will his value ever get any higher than it is right now?
Thomas is 24 years old and is coming off a six-week stretch late last season where he ranked as the RB2 in the league. There are owners out there who justifiably have visions of top-ten value in their heads for him.
With that in mind, I have been cautiously dipping Pierre's toe into the trade market in my dynasty league. I am deep at running back and Pierre is the most valuable piece I'm willing to deal. I have some attachment to Thomas, raising him since he was a pup, refusing trade offers, but you have to be unemotional in fantasy. Now is a good time to deal.
It is always tricky to trade someone based on fear that the Draft will hurt their value. I would have to comfortable trading Thomas with the knowledge the Saints may add no one.
With that said, trading before the Draft is also an opportunity to maximize value. In years past, I feared that my runners Chester Taylor and Willie Parker would be paired with high draft picks. I did nothing about it, and their value sunk.
Will the same happen with Thomas?
Comments
I can't envision a scenario where PT doesn't get at least 210 carries and 40 catches. He has proven to be capable of the big play and has shown a nose for the end zone. If these touches are reasonable you could be looking at 950 yards rushing/ 350 receiving for 1,300 all purpose and 10-12 td's.
Posted by: TC | March 27, 2009 11:11 AM
Actually, his peak value this offseason would have been two months ago. With all the chatter now about the Saints picking up another back, his value is back down at least to mid RB2 level, unless you trade with one of the guys in your league who doesn't check offseason player news.
With his versatility, PT still could carve out a role on the team worth RB2 value, even if the team picks up a short yardage guy. At least that's my hope, since my RB depth sucks right now.
I'm holding onto him and hoping Payton & Co decide to build defense.
Posted by: Matt Brammer | March 27, 2009 12:23 PM
If you can trade PT for a stud starter than do so; otherwise, he's worth holding, as he's got loads of potential, and is the sort of player who can team to the championship.
Posted by: malc | March 27, 2009 12:33 PM
why would they not add a back? they had duece in a role last year (Bush, PT, Deuce) and stecker in a role before him in 2007(Bush, Deuce, Stecker). all three backed produced each year. sean peyton loves depth. do u really think he'll feel comfortable with a two headed backfield and a full back to go along with it.
i understand u guys love PT, i get it. but there is no way in that offense that he'll every be a clear cut RB1. an RB2 is possible, but with all the hate towards the NE and DEN backfield committees, why arent we angry yet at this one? this is an explosive offense but with more question marks at RB seniority than most team.
as a bush and PT owner this frustrates me to the utmost, but like gregg said.. its not personal. we just have to understand that no RB here will ever be worry free.
Posted by: scott c | March 27, 2009 01:48 PM
Can The Saints even afford another good RB? With Bush on the payroll they cant afford to draft a first or second round RB. Bush/Tomas plus a short yardage roll player should be enough. They should easily be able to pick up a veteran talent off of free agency/waivers. The Saints offense works just fine chucking it 40 times a game. Any Drew Brees owners out there agree with me?
Posted by: M | March 27, 2009 02:41 PM
I can't imagine getting enough to make this worth while, I lost out on thomas and was thinking of lowballing an offer for him, and see if the owner is scared to the point of moving him.
Posted by: Kirby | March 27, 2009 03:26 PM
The Saints should trade Thomas to the Chiefs for LJ. After all, the Saints need a big running back (thanks Mike Lombardi) and the Chiefs need one that doesn't suck.
Posted by: Anonymous | March 27, 2009 05:08 PM