Is Ocho Cinco an obvious buy-low?
Is Chad Ocho Cinco an obvious buy-low this offseason? He’s a proven Pro Bowl talent coming off a disastrous season. Between the shoulder injury and the loss of Carson Palmer, he never really had a chance. He’s a near lock to return to 1,000 yards this season, right?
I think Ocho Cinco falls under the category of "somebody else's problem." His value is low, but that doesn't mean I have to make it my problem to see that it rises again.
Has Carson Palmer put the elbow problems behind him for good? I remain skeptical that he will bounce back to normal in 2009. What’s normal for Palmer now anyway? He can kiss those 2005-06 glory years good-bye forever.
Lost in the excuses for Ocho Cinco and the Bengals offense is the fact that they struggled to move the ball in the first three games before Palmer went down.
The offensive line, a team strength in the explosive days of 2005-06, has been in shambles the past two years. And it’s not likely to get better any time soon, with as many as three new starters expected in 2009.
Despite Bill Cowher’s odd fascination with the Bengals as a 2009 sleeper, this remains a franchise in disarray. With one winning season in the last 18 years, the Bengals are a threat to go into tailspin mode whenever they start a season with a loss or two. A September hiccup and it’s right back down the rabbit hole for the entire offense.
The problem with Ocho is that a bounce back to 1,000 yards isn't good enough to make him worth the gamble. He has to add 700-800 yards and a dramatic uptick in consistency to get back to the old Chad Johnson. It’s possible, but it’s just not something in which I want to invest.
Comments
unfortunately in most re-drafts i dont think he'll drop low enough to be a buy-low, just on namesake
Posted by: scott c | March 20, 2009 03:25 PM
chris - i think it's all about how you view ol' ocho. on one hand, he's a 31 year old receiver coming off the worst season of his career, carson palmer is a huge question mark, the bengals are a team in chronic turmoil (all reasons a savvy owner gives to drive down ocho's price). on the other hand, you can't deny ocho cinco's god-given talent at catching footballs, he hasn't noticeably lost a step, he's still by far the first option on his team, and when carson palmer's healthy, ocho still has one of the elite qb's in the game at his service.
now, it's almost a certainty that he has a better year in '09 than he had in '08. is it possible for it to get worse than last year in cincy? maybe... but the point of a "buy-low" is that i won't have to spend much to find out. i'd gamble sidney rice (vikes are throwing offers at housh? really? if they give up i do too) and a late 2nd round pick that carson palmer can still throw a football and chad will keep finding ways to entertain us post-TD for a few more years - and prove to be a valuable #4/#5 receiver for my dynasty in the process.
Posted by: cgeezy | March 20, 2009 11:32 PM
I'd say Chad Johnson is a guy you have to pick in the right spot. I don't foresee him ending up on my team because I think in the first four rounds, there will always be another player I'd rather have.
Posted by: Fredex | March 21, 2009 11:45 AM
If (and it's a big if) Palmer is healthy, the downside risk to CJ is pretty low. Let's review:
1) Now that TJ Houz is gone, CJ is the clear #1 WR there and has worked with Palmer for years.
2) Cinncy designs their passing attack around their WRs as much as any team in the NFL. They have to b/c their TEs and RBs are zero threats as receivers.
3) Cinncy will be behind early and often. They must throw, throw, throw.
All this adds up to a ton of targets to CJ. He's not coming off injuries to the wheels and WRs can still produce at a pretty high level at 31. The man can still get open.
I'd take him in any format (assuming again Palmer is right) over the likes of Roy Williams, Cotchery, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, or other mid-tier #1 WRs that will be there rounds 4-6.
Posted by: stx_jay | March 22, 2009 11:04 AM