Blockbuster non-PPR Dynasty Trade Proposal

I am in a 12-team dynasty league with others from the industry. No points are awarded for receptions. I have a blockbuster proposal on the table and wanted to get some opinions. Especially from Scott C. -- the dynasty commenter aficionado on this blog.
Here's the offer:
I get
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Round 1, Pick 9 Draft Pick
I give
Gore, Frank SF RB
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR
Washington, Nate TEN WR
Round 3, Pick 11 Draft Pick
I hate giving up Marshall, but the "knucklehead factor" (a Chris Wesseling-coined term) on Baby T.O. is high and I'm somewhat deep at receiver. There are also several late first-round caliber dynasty picks coming in this NFL Draft. We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1RB/WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF.
My current roster:
QBs: Matt Cassel > David Garrard > Luke McCown
RBs: Frank Gore > Pierre Thomas > Derrick Ward > Tim Hightower > LeRon McClain > Michael Bush > Ricky Williams > LaMont Jordan
WRs: Larry Fitzgerald > Brandon Marshall > Torry Holt > Miles Austin > Mike Walker > Nate Washington > Mario Manningham > Jason Hill > Devin Thomas
TE: Chris Cooley
K: Nate Kaeding
Factors to consider: Michael Turner's 370+ carry season; the other owner is also dangling Chad Johnson, who I perhaps could swap in for Lance Moore; San Francisco's offense potentially falling back off the cliff after losing Mike Martz (for Gore's sake); the draft pick upgrade; Marshall and L.J.'s likely suspensions; L.J.'s potential release





Comments
wow.. im getting a lot of love on this blog ;). thanks guys.
Evan -o r 'That Silva ;o),
i really dont like this trade at all. yes, marshall will get suspended throughout his career, but hes elite and will never be not elite. cutler or no cutler. turner is at his all-time at this point, he'll never be as high as he is now. not that i dont like him - i have him in a dynasty but its a salary cap dynasty and i got him as a flier for $1, so i cant ever trade him at that value - its just that he'll never be as high as he is now, plus im concerned with his carry total already. he could fall off dramitcally after two years at his carry rate. gore is more than suitable, even if he always teases with his potential, and PPR is better for him, still i cant trade someone who hasnt reached their ceiling yet. LJ is major avoid. i wouldnt take him for a 3rd dynasty draft - okay, a 2nd - but, please stay awayyyy from him! lance is at an alltime high - and yes i have him too in many leagues, but last year was the perfect storm for him. he'll always be second fiddle and that tells me to trade high, not keep. but i like him at 70rec 900yd 5td, for another year or two. he is somewhat risky since he doesnt have elite talent. that rd one draft pick is nice, but u can trade him one for one for that one pick.. id like that better.
ill go out on a limb and say i think u really like turner and that thats what sparked conversations, now dude is trying to dump LJ as a caviot and throw in Moore as "just cause" since he's really nice at this point and give credibility to the trade... still, no go silva. please dont trade. id go with ur gut here and say that turner will not hold up as long as marshall and gore will career-wise. that #10 pick is tasty tho. try to just go for that and get turner on the cheap(er) next year, midway this season. defenses will adjust to ryan and the whole atl offense (yes just a hunch, but still) so do go overboard by trading elite talent to get any them.
Posted by: scott c | March 30, 2009 06:01 PM
also, in response - id rather have l.moore over chad ocho... yes, he's fallen that far. sad.
Posted by: scott c | March 30, 2009 06:05 PM
btw... great points wess. i agree with you here after reading ur post.
Posted by: scott c | March 30, 2009 06:07 PM
... so dont go overboard by trading elite talent to get any them... god i cant type right now. sorry. my spelling sux
Posted by: scott c | March 30, 2009 06:12 PM
debates like this one are exactly what makes dynasty leagues so much more competitive and fun than re-drafts. in the words of the great ferris bueller: "if you have the means, i highly recommend [getting into one]." "its so choice."
scott c - great evaluation. they oughta throw you an offer to write for this outfit.
ev - going into the offseason, i would think that your biggest priority would be getting a solid running back to pair with gore and then adding receiver depth.
you have two top 10 receivers on your team as far as talent goes in the nfl. i've long been in the school of judging studs based on what they give you when they're on the field. say what you want about marshall's "knucklehead factor", the guy was a stud fantasy receiver last year no matter the format, and he's only been in the league for 3 years. if you had sold t.o. in his 3rd year in the league, you might have saved yourself some grief, and foregone a guy with an entire era in the top 5. marshall has that kind of potential.
and you're going to give him up to upgrade your rb2 to larry johnson? there are places LJ can go where he could cap off his career nicely (the jets come to mind), but i wouldn't touch him before finding out his fate. that's reckless. i saw someone say he's a good "buy-low", which could be true, but you're not paying for him with pennies in this deal.
i don't like this trade for you. that said, it is a fair offer. he's selling turner high, but that doesn't mean turner won't be a great rb1 for the next couple of years. dimitroff is a smart dude and he'll build that team nicely around mike smith's run-based offense with matt ryan's arm keeping teams from loading the box. i'm not as concerned by the 370 curse or whatever. turner runs low, pads first, and plus the no-wear-and-tear thing and all that jazz. lance moore is wes welker minus the killer 'stash. he'll get his points even with brees spraying the ball all over the field - a valuable role player for a dynasty. and as for the #9 pick, this is a very deep draft class for skill players. if you make a list of the prospects coming out of this draft who could contribute immediately (moreno, wells, d.brown, mccoy, crabtree, maclin, nicks, harvin, stafford - plus any unforeseen draft specials like jennings getting drafted by the browns) that pick could turn out to be a very valuable piece of a deal.
still, when you've got two best-of-the-bests at wr like you do, the only reason to trade them would be a.) in a package for someone even better than they are (not possible in fitz's case), or b.) to rebuild around a package of prospects if you're in the pits of your league. this move does not qualify for either.
Posted by: cgeezy | March 30, 2009 10:18 PM
Buy low, sell high.
Turner should be solid, but will NOT replicate his career year. Gore's ceiling is ridiculously high.
BTW, when it comes to insane talent, I'd rather have a knucklehead than an injury prone frustration ... far less agony setting weekly lineups.
Posted by: Juggs | March 31, 2009 10:01 AM
I'd make that trade as is. If you can get the Chad Johnson/Lance Moore swap added, I'd roll with Johnson.
Nice deal.
Posted by: Pac_Eddy | March 31, 2009 01:07 PM