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Blockbuster non-PPR Dynasty Trade Proposal

I am in a 12-team dynasty league with others from the industry. No points are awarded for receptions. I have a blockbuster proposal on the table and wanted to get some opinions. Especially from Scott C. -- the dynasty commenter aficionado on this blog.

Here's the offer:

I get
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Round 1, Pick 9 Draft Pick

I give
Gore, Frank SF RB
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR
Washington, Nate TEN WR
Round 3, Pick 11 Draft Pick

I hate giving up Marshall, but the "knucklehead factor" (a Chris Wesseling-coined term) on Baby T.O. is high and I'm somewhat deep at receiver. There are also several late first-round caliber dynasty picks coming in this NFL Draft. We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1RB/WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF.

My current roster:

QBs: Matt Cassel > David Garrard > Luke McCown
RBs: Frank Gore > Pierre Thomas > Derrick Ward > Tim Hightower > LeRon McClain > Michael Bush > Ricky Williams > LaMont Jordan
WRs: Larry Fitzgerald > Brandon Marshall > Torry Holt > Miles Austin > Mike Walker > Nate Washington > Mario Manningham > Jason Hill > Devin Thomas
TE: Chris Cooley
K: Nate Kaeding

Factors to consider: Michael Turner's 370+ carry season; the other owner is also dangling Chad Johnson, who I perhaps could swap in for Lance Moore; San Francisco's offense potentially falling back off the cliff after losing Mike Martz (for Gore's sake); the draft pick upgrade; Marshall and L.J.'s likely suspensions; L.J.'s potential release

Comments

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I would not make the trade. I almost always believe trades come down to who gets the best players. In this offer Gore is the best, Marshall is likey third best after Turner. Warning I own Gore and am likely looking through rose colored glasses.

The 9th pick in the draft likely has you looking at a decent wr or qb prospect but there are few that would have me excited enough at that spot, but maybe you see getting Nicks there.

Larry Johnson seems like a big candidate to disapeer if not this year then next and I do not see him as a big plus.

While Gore may take a hit this year in terms of receptions and tds, he has produced before as the only asset on that team.

Turners lack of catches are troubling because if Atlanta struggles more this year, his value plummets. He is a great back if Atlanta is winning, a poor back if they struggle. Since he is on the bench in favor of Norwood's blocking and recieving. I would be more worried about a second year slump from Atlanta, then Gore losing Martz.

Marshall I agree with you you should look to move due to the knuckle head potential, but I would want more than Lance Moore. Who the Saints only valued as a 2nd round pick, and no one else has bit on that low offer makes me nervous.

Gregg-

My advice is take the deal.

(1) I like others think that Gore and Turner can be considered close to a wash with Turner probably getting the edge due to it being a non PPR league and the TD factor over Gore
(2) It all boils down to this part of the trade for me Washington-Marshall-3rd Round for Moore-LJ-1st round.

Marshall vs. LJ---both have issues and who knows about Brandon Marshall with possible suspension looming (and one episode away from worse suspension) and Jay Cutler's status up in the air. If both are healthy, have pieces in place, then Marshall is better, but there is so many question marks around both that I would just consider these 2 non-factors in the trade as if they didn't exist.

Washington vs. Moore

Huge upside for you. Washington is in Tennessee with Kerry Collins or Young throwing to him in a heavy run first offense and Tenn WR's are pretty much non-factors fantasy-wise. Moore on the other hand is the #2 WR on the most prolific fantasy yardage and TD scoring passing offense in the NFL. You score a boon in my opinion and there is a good chance Moore could produce the same fantasy statistics as Marshall and Washington combined (or at least close to it).

1st round vs. 3rd round.....this isn't hard to debate is it? You gain a position of having (2) 1st round picks which allows you to stock up on (2) possible dynasty cornerstones (and I think this RB class could have some good ones because of situations) in the first round rather than a flyer later in the 3rd.

In my opinion you set yourself up better both for the immediate season, but especially for the future by doing this trade.

Evan (sorry for calling you Gregg)-

Added caveat. Brandon Marshall and Frank Gore were targets of mine all year long in the leagues I was in and I still like them as fantasy players, but in this instance (non-PPR league) the trade just looks to be heavily in your favor.

I don't like this for you. Gore will be elite this year, despite no Martz. Turner is going downhill after being worn out last year, besides the fact he does not catch the ball. If there were a better crop of running backs this year it might be interesting, but none look like they will be all that great. Moore for Marshall is a wash with a looming suspension. To me it looks like a wash at best and giving away a fantasy MVP at the worst.

Evan, in response to your question on Chad J vs. Lance, it depends a little on (1) whether you want to win now or build for the future and (2) how many keepers you get to keep, but generally I would take Lance. While I like Chad as a buy-very-low candidate (I think Cincy's problems had more to do with the OL -- and that may still be a huge problem), the only argument for Chad over Lance is that you want to win THIS year and think Chad can put up better numbers (which is certainly not a guarantee). So unless you're really trying to amass your troops for a run this year (and judging from your roster, that will be hard without QB help), I'd go with Lance. He's not a lock, but he has intriguing upside given his circumstances.

I am leaning to accepting the deal. I like the 1st round pick and the WR. Marshall is probably going to get a long suspension, meaning if he messes up again--and we have no reason to believe he won't--it should be a season.

As for Moore vs Cinco, for dynasty purposes I am leaning towards Moore. Cinco seems to be the consumate boom or bust receiver with much more boom than bust lately. I think the offense Moore plays in is the deciding factor.

I think replacing Chad Johnson vs. Moore in a dynasty is not close. I would much rather have Johnson.

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