I'm not a fan of this deal for your side.

-I'm a big believer in the Curse of 370, plus Turner is 1-1/2 years older than Gore.

- Marshall = LJ in the knucklehead department, but with much more production. LJ is basically a dynasty non-entity and that slim value becomes less if he moves from KC.

- the 1.9 and Moore just aren't valuable enough to offset what I see as a loss of value from Marshall & gore to LJ and Turner.

Evan, I think you should definitely do that deal, though admittedly it depends some on the value of draft picks and the amount of positional scarcity in your league, etc. Putting aside your glaring need at QB, here's the thinking:

(1) I'm assuming Nate Washington and the 3rd round pick are nearly worthless.

(2) Turner is a solid solid solid RB. With no PPR, I'd rather have him than Gore, easily. He has only one year of tread on the tires, Gore has more. He's clearly more durable than Gore anyway. Atlanta has a better QB and WRs; OL's are probably a wash though Atlanta's could easily be called better. The Martz thing cuts both ways, but in general I agree that his departure hurts Gore, and Singletary seems unlikely to use Gore in creative ways. Just pounding Gore up the middle for 4 yards a pop is a recipe for a broken down Gore. He was already a safe bet to be injured when Martz was getting him out in space. Turner proved that he has a nose for the endzone, is durable, can succeed in Atlanta, etc. In a non-PPR league, he must be a top 5 RB. Gore is not.

(3) If no PPR, then Marshall's value takes a hit. The Jay Cutler fiasco adds uncertainty to Marshall's value, as does the knucklehead point you raise. Something else that people seem to be ignoring is the clear risk (I say risk, not fact) that McDaniels may be a disaster at coach. His start has been horrid, and not just on the Cutler thing. All told, this is a pretty good time to sell high on Marshall while people still have memories of his 18 catch game.

(4) LJ is a good buy low candidate. Getting released could very well be a good thing. Staying is fine too -- with your boy Cassel and some draft help, hopefully the O improves. Of course, you can't assume LJ will do much beyond RB3 or bench strength, but he's an awfully good gamble if you can pay little to get him -- overall, he has less mileage than people think and is now well removed from when he had his injury. The real cause of the decline in LJ's play has been his OL, not LJ.

(5) Lance Moore is the real deal. He'll never be Colston, but he's the clear #2 on the most pass-happy team in the league. When he puts in another year like last year, his trade value will be meaningful.

(6) The 9th pick should yield a pretty solid prospect, say a high 2d round RB or WR, maybe even a late 1st. That's the kind of pick these dynasty leagues are built on.

I love the trade.

P.S. You're not that deep at WR!

thanks jimmo, The Curse of 370 is obviously a huge factor to consider. It's possibly THE deciding factor as to whether the deal is any good.

Gregg,

I think you're getting the best player in this deal with Turner, as well as the higher draft pick.

I agree that losing Marshall is a concern, but if you're deep at wideout I think it's worth the risk.

I also like the LJ wildcard factor; imagine if he gets cut by the Chiefs and ends up on the open market with a chip on his shoulder, and on a team like the Saints or Cardinals? Wow.

OK thanks veggie. Another question: Would you rather have Chad Johnson than Lance Moore?

I'd say that Gore and Turner are basically a wash. Moore is a slight upgrade over Washington, but it remains to be seen if Moore can repeat his 2008 performance, and Washington is an unproven commodity in Tennessee. LJ's value is close to nothing right now, so basically you're looking at trading Marshall and a 3rd round pick for a late 1st round pick. I guess I'd only go for it if you're sure you can get a potential replacement with the pick. Do you have to pull the trigger before the NFL Draft? That could give you a better feel for the value of that 1st round pick.

Reaper - This other owner is very prone to pulling offers off the table, re-offering, etc. So I'd imagine I'll have to accept or decline by the end of the day. So yeah, definitely before the draft.