The franchise tags are coming fast and furious. Texans CB Dunta Robinson and Seahawks LB LeRoy Hill are the latest young talents to be kept off the market. With Jordan Gross signed long-term, the Panthers have franchised Julius Peppers. They are likely to seek a trade, but may also try to exhaust all chances of retaining him. This once-promising free agent class is drying up before it starts.
It’s not that Robinson and Hill are truly top-five talents at their position. It’s just that there is SO much cap room these days and one-year deals are essentially team friendly, no matter how high the cap number. Soak up a player’s prime while you can and worry about a long-term deal later.
It remains to be seen how the economy changes free agent spending. But the record quantity of cap room has had a profound effect on free agency. Staying under the cap is so much less of an issue than it used to be. That’s why the Patriots can spend $29 million, for now, on quarterbacks. That's how the Panthers can keep Gross and Peppers. That's how Nmamdi Asomugha can get $45 million over three years. (Make that money!) With the exception of a few teams, most are not overly hamstrung by cap considerations. Teams simply don’t let young players they want to keep walk away, with very few exceptions.
Update: After Max Starks was tagged, we have reached a record 14 tags. 11 was the previous record.
Bo Scaife was the top potential free agent tight end, but now he’s not going anywhere. It’s a smart for Tennessee, who gets a small silver lining for not having the option to franchise Albert Haynesworth.
Scaife was the number 16 fantasy tight end in standard leagues in two of the last three seasons. He was a borderline TE1 in PPR leagues with a team-leading 58 catches. I like Scaife as a player, but that’s roughly his fantasy ceiling. Not too exciting.
Awesome job by Florio and collegefootballtalk.com to award their national championship to Utah.
The Ravens seem likely to go after a receiver or two this off-season, whether through the draft or free agency. I was a huge champion of Mark Clayton, but the bloom is off the rose there. I was surprised to see how quickly he was taken in my partial re-draft in my dynasty league.
We give the Raiders a lot of crap in this space, so let’s applaud them for a strong start to the offseason. They re-signed cornerback Chris Johnson at a below market rate. They re-signed one of the best punters in football, Shane Lechler. And they are close to getting an improbable deal done with Nmandi Asomugha, which would greatly lower his cap figure. (They will franchise him without a long-term deal.) I even like them planning to take Jerry Porter back at a reduced rate.
Couple those moves with the wise decision to keep Tom Cable, helping their continuity, and Oakland has some positive momentum for the first time in a long time.
Player value changes fast in the NFL. Before the 2008 season, we never would have thought of Antonio Bryant, Matt Cassel, and Darren Sproles as “franchise” players.
Sproles’ deal should limit his 2009 fantasy value; he had a better chance of breaking out statistically in another uniform. The San Diego Union Tribune says his role will be similar in San Diego, regardless of what happens with LaDainian Tomlinson, although his role will expand “slightly” from scrimmage. He will remain a force on returns.
“I believe his role will be very similar to what it has been in the past,” GM AJ Smith said.
Dynasty owners of Sproles had higher hopes. Smith also talked about wanting to get Tomlinson signed to a re-worked deal, which looks more possible by the day. If Tomlinson returns, it would be fair to expect a slightly decreased role for LT2, with Sproles and possibly Jacob Hester helping out more.
I am not bullish on a Tomlinson ’09 rebound, but he would benefit from a reduced workload. Fantasy owners, of course, would not.
February 18, 2009
Jerry Jones’ latest statements hinted that Terrell Owens may not be released after all. With nearly every national football writer predicting the opposite, the star-crossed Cowboys owner/GM may just be trying to keep the media wolves at bay.
Owens has a roster bonus due in June, so the Cowboys could make sure he’s on his best behavior before making a final decision. What’s clear is that a faction in Dallas, reportedly led by Stephen Jones and Jason Garrett, does not love them some T.O. Let’s say, for the sake of February chatter, that this faction wins out and Owens is released.
Where would Owens go? More importantly, who would be desperate and crazy enough to want Owens?
With a hearty assist to the geniuses at Beckett’s publications, here’s Rotoworld’s best guess for potential Owens landing spots.
1. Raiders: Owens will go where he’s paid the most – period. And Al Davis showed with Javon Walker that he’s not afraid to overspend to get JaMarcus Russell some help. Davis also isn’t the type of owner to worry about chemistry much.
2. Ravens: They have a huge need at the position and have shown prior interest. They also have a veteran locker room that could handle Owens. The trickiest part of the equation here might be the salary cap. Baltimore also wants to find room for Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott.
3. Redskins: The Fighting Cerratos don’t really have the cap room, but they have to be near the top of the list of teams crazy enough to do it. Dan Snyder also invested three picks at receiver in the 2008 draft, with initially poor results. Owens would fix the position quickly and amp up Washington’s NFC East rivalries.
Continue reading "Teams that could take on T.O." »
February 17, 2009
New Bucs OC Jeff Jagodzinski met with the media for the first time since being hired Tuesday. The former B.C. coach is noted for his zone blocking running schemes, which he will implement in Tampa. He coached Warrick Dunn to much success in Atlanta, but it's clear that Jags has his eye on another Tampa back: Earnest Graham.
Jagodzinski made it clear that Graham is the man in Tampa moving forward. Graham is a perfect fit for a zone scheme: he has awesome vision and decisiveness, but isn't particularly shifty or fast. Tampa may add talent behind Graham, but his fantasy value is back on the way up. Dunn, in my opinion, is not guaranteed to be on the 2009 roster at his current $3 million salary.
When I asked y’all last week about where you thought T.J. Houshmandzadeh would land, I learned a few things.
1) There are a lot of Philly fans who read Rotoworld.
2) They are very hopeful the Eagles get another wide receiver.
The question is whether the Eagles organization also believes wide receiver is a huge position of need. I doubt they do, which is way I didn’t rank Philly as one of the five most likely teams to sign Housh. PhiladelphiaEagles.com also seems to doubt it, and GM Tom Heckert essentially told Eagles fans not to get their hopes up. They already have a future number one receiver: DeSean Jackson.
Now Adam Schefter believes Philly is one of six possible destinations, and I trust him far more than my gut. But it just doesn’t make common sense. Going after Randy Moss, a true game-changer, is one thing. Perhaps even Anquan Boldin. But is Houshmandzadeh, at 31, that big an upgrade over Kevin Curtis and Jason Avant? Is the difference worth $8-9 million a year? The Eagles have more pressing needs - offensive line, secondary, and running back. Look for the Eagles to address those needs rather than paying Housh big bucks.
Adam Schefter reports that the Cardinals are expected to use their franchise tag on Karlos Dansby for the second straight year. They will have to pay him $9.6 million if they can’t get him signed to a long-term deal. After watching a lot of Cardinals games over the last month, I think he’s worth it. He’s the key player on their defense; absolutely a Pro Bowl quality player.
Tagging Dansby is a decent indication they are confident they can re-sign Kurt Warner.
In other franchise news courtesy of NFL.com, the Panthers are close to locking up Jordan Gross, which would allow them to tag Julius Peppers.
Evan Silva with an excellent Combine preview – the “action” starts Thursday, but really gets cranking over the weekend.
If the Saints re-sign Devery Henderson, it will be another sign that they don’t particularly trust Robert Meachem. After a decent start, Meachem faded badly with five catches after Week 5 despite injuries at wideout in New Orleans.
Meachem’s three plays over 45 yards were nice, but he’s the 22nd among his rookie class in receiving yards in his short career despite playing on a pass-happy offense. Eight ’08 rookies also out-produced Meachem’s two combined seasons. hell, eight Saints caught more passes than him in '08 (Mark Campbell tied him for ninth.)
If I was searching for a recent comp for Meachem’s career start, it would probably be Henderson. That’s not a good sign either.
Continue reading "Skinny Posts: Tag time" »
February 16, 2009
With free agency only eleven days away, the intensity of roster pruning is set to ramp up. Today, we enter the "cut the big name early out of consideration to their careers" phase of things. Fred Taylor and Chris McAlister, with four Pro Bowls and 20 productive seasons between them, are out.
Taylor, like Shaun Alexander, is going to have a difficult time finding a job becaues he doesn't offer receiving skills or special teams ability. He'll be lucky to get a backup job. The Jaguars are looking ahead to a future filled with Maurice Jones-Drew. Mo-Jo owners no longer have to deal with Taylor stealing value. And Jacksonville smartly wants to sign Mo-Jo to a deal now before his puts up insane numbers as a starter.
The only question left is whether the Jaguars will add another quality running back. Jack Del Rio mentioned getting Greg Jones the ball more. (Perhaps in a Le'Ron McClain-type role). They also have Chauncey Washington on the bench.
Jones-Drew is going to be in our top-ten picks next season. How the Jaguars approach the backfield behind Mo-Jo will decide if he's in our top-five.
We are just getting going on this Marshawn Lynch story, which is a shame. Lynch has been one of my favorite players since he entered the league because of his wild playing style and buoyant personality. But as I wrote in a quickie column today, his career is on hold for now.
It's way too early to say anything conclusively, but keeper league owners need to prepare for the possibility of life without Lynch for part of next season. Dynasty league owners hopefully have Fred Jackson in tow. Jackson just went from one of my favorite true backups in the league to something more. Jackson reminds me a lot of Chester Taylor, and I think he could have similar success as a starter if given the chance.
February 13, 2009
Brandon Jacobs was given the franchise tag Friday, which is a great move for the Giants. Huge running back contracts are dicey. I love keeping a great player like Brandon Jacobs on a year-to-year basis. He was extra motivated to stay on the field last season, and he will be again. The move also gives them more time to reach a long-term deal, but clearly they aren't comfortable with Jacobs' demands thus far.
Don Banks with more on the internal struggle surrounding T.O.'s possible release.
Andrew Brandt, Brett Favre's former co-worker and boss, with a very intimate and even-handed look at Brett Favre.
I hope GMs see Derrick Ward the same way Mike Lombardi does.
I'm starting a dynasty partial re-draft in my longtime league this week. I may ask you guys for your opinion on certain choices. Hopefully no one in my league reads this blog, but I'm thinking about Anthony Gonzalez, Roy Williams or Joe Flacco with my first pick. My QB need is much greater (I only have Trent Edwards), but it's a PPR league and WRs are gold. I know which way I'm leaning - how about you?
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