February 27, 2009
Sorry for the quiet here today, but we're up to 150 blurbs on the player news page on the day, with over 225 in the last 24 hours. That's the real blog, although Silva and Wesseling are the most responsible for the great work there. I'm also blogging on NBCSports.com, so visit me there. Two blogs, very confusing.
There are changes probably coming with how we do things in general, but I think the main idea will be to post straight NFL news there, and fantasy impact here. And there is plenty of fantasy impact to go around. Back on that in a bit.
February 26, 2009
Based on everything I'm reading, it wouldn't be a shock if Jason Brown and Albert Haynesworth have deals completed before the end of the day tomorrow. Agreements are possible before Evan Silva goes to sleep.
So before this gets any more out of date, here is my top defenders available in a nutshell article for NBCSports.com. After doing these columns, I think linebacker, cornerback, and safety had the best depth available for any position. There just weren't many quality starters available on offense.
If the silly season of rumors hadn't officially started before Thursday afternoon, it has now. The National Football Post, former GM Mike Lombardi's site, has a whopper. Now we'll just have to see if they are right. They say there is a 70% chance T.J. Houshmandzadeh returns to the Bengals, as the two sides are nearing a deal. That would rob the market of our top-rated wide receiver. I suspect Housh could get a bigger payday if he waits, but it just goes to show that all the disgruntled talk in the world doesn't matter.
Houshmandzadeh seemed unhappy with the organziation before, during, and after the Bengals season. He could certainly find a more successful organization elsewhere. But as re-signing Raiders Nmandi Asomugha and Shane Lechler already proved: money talks. Duh.
Baltimore's big three free agents are linebackers Bart Scott, Ray Lewis, and guard/center Jason Brown. Scott figured to be the best value of the three, and he appears to be the one most likely to re-sign.
The Baltimore Sun reports that Scott is only $400,000-$700,000 apart with Baltimore in contract negotiations. That tells me he's unlikely to fly the coop.
Brown, on the other hand, is reportedly far apart in discussions. Brown is my top offensive lineman available, and one of the top-five at any position. It's rare to see difference making offensive lineman available at any position, and he has versaitility. Any team serious about the running game will want him. Washington, Miami, St. Louis, and Kansas City have been mentioned as suitors for Brown.
If Scott re-signs today, one has to wonder if Ray Lewis will start taking free agent trips this weekend. Even if he doesn't sign elsewhere, visiting a team like the Jets would increase Lewis' leverage.
D.J. Hackett went from a Rotoworld favorite to released in favor of Dwayne Jarrett in just over a year. Hackett’s inability to stay healthy marred his chance to ever become a true difference-maker in Seattle, and it kept him off the field in Carolina. At 28, he’s still young enough to rebound, but there isn’t much proof that he can stay healthy for a full season.
His best chance for relevance is in a West Coast system, where he fit well as a split end. Seattle is desperate for receiver talent, so a reunion with the Seahawks makes a lot of sense. Hackett needs someone other than Rotoworld to believe in him or he’s dangerously close to slipping out of the league.
Unlike Hackett, Drew Bennett had one season where he truly mattered in fantasy leagues. That was a long time ago, however, and his disastrous stint with the Rams is a cautionary tale for spending big money in free agency. Bennett is unlikely to be a fantasy difference-maker again, but he has a chance for relevance if he returns to Mike Heimerdinger and the Titans. That reunion should go better than the Justin McCareins revival. It can’t go worse.
With free agency starting at midnight, many believed there was pressure on Chargers GM A.J. Smith to complete a re-structured deal with LaDainian Tomlinson by the end of the day or possibly release the franchise legend. No such pressure exists.
Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post points out that the Chargers are under no timetable to get a deal done with Tomlinson. Unlike the Marvin Harrison and Derrick Brook cases, the Chargers truly want to keep their player. They have plenty of cap room available and there is no pending roster bonus coming up.
The longer this negotiation goes on, the greater the chance Tomlinson returns to the Chargers at a reduced salary. Tomlinson's options will diminish as other teams fill their needs in free agency and the draft. The Chargers will also see their options go down. A backfield of Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Jacob Hester, and a potential rookie to be named later looks more likely by the day.
After a full week of position previews on Rotoworld, NBCSports.com asked if I could condense/mash some of them up for a quick and handy free agency preview for offense and defense. The offense preview is up, and it reflects all the big name cuts from yesterday. I rank Laveranues Coles as the second best available wideout.
At running back, it's amazing how mediocre the crop of talent is after Derrick Ward. I didn't see a huge difference between second and third (Maurice Morris, Cedric Benson) and players way down the list like Kevin Jones.
February 25, 2009
As promised, the cuts have continued all Wednesday afternoon. The most surprising was Laveranues Coles of the Jets. Coles made the risky decision to pass up a $6 million guaranteed salary to hit the free agent market. The Jets may quietly be thankful. After all, they could have kept him if they truly wanted to.
Coles is 31, often hurt, and has complained about his contract and role the last few years. He's an extremely smart and tough player, but he's small and has lost a few steps since early in his career. He's not a number one receiver.
Coles and his agent are betting he can make more than $6 million elsewhere in 2009. Considering Jerry Porter got a $10 million signing bonus as a free agent last year, it's a reasonable bet. Coles joins a lame batch of available wideouts; only T.J. Houshmandzadeh is clearly better. But my guess is that Coles will receive less interest than he expects. Coles may not see much more than $10 million over the next two years, but he can help a team win now as a second receiver. There aren't many guys like that out there.
The Jets now have a huge amount of free agent dollars to spend. They could re-invest at wide receiver, but they have youngsters Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney ready to step into bigger roles behind Jerricho Cotchery. Stuckey immediatley becomes a fantasy sleeper for next year, and Clowney is someone to watch closely. Tight end Dustin Keller is essentially another wideout. This isn't a game-breaking unit, but you can win with it. Now all they need is a quarterback.
The Bucs as we thought of them are no more. Derrick Brooks is the second future Hall of Famer to be cut in the last 24 hours, and more big names will come soon from around the league. Teams have only two business days to get under the salary cap, and new Bucs GM Mark Dominik did not hesitate to start re-making his roster.
Brooks, Warrick Dunn, Joey Galloway, Cato June, and Ike Hilliard are all big names held in esteem by Tampa fans. And they are all gone now. But June was the only name that surprised me because he's the only one under 30 years old. His production matched his salary, which wasn't true for the other players.
June's release could indicate how far the Bucs will stray from Monte' Kiffin's usual Tampa Two system. He's a lightweight linebacker who wouldn't fit if the team is trying to bulk up.
Brooks and Dunn are franchise legends, and it seems possible that Brooks could return at a reduced rate. Dunn revived his career under Jon Gruden, and should be able to find a fit somewhere as a third-down back. Galloway and Hilliard may struggle to find jobs.
The Bucs don't have logical replacements at wideout or linebacker on the roster; Maurice Stovall at WR? Quincy Black at LB? Eh. (Stovall is currently the No. 2 wideout in Tampa, but he won't be for long. Dunn's release clears the way for Earnest Graham and a rookie to be named later to take over the backfield.)
Tampa is smart to get younger, cheaper, leaner. This could also open up salary cap space to make a run at Albert Haynesworth. Look for Tampa to be active in free agency and put a renewed emphasis in developing young talent now that GM Bruce Allen and Jon Gruden have left the building. Along with many other big names.
We know the Giants don't want Marvin Harrison. Will anyone?
Harrison's production and ability to separate fell off dramatically as he turned 36 years old last season. The always-healthy future Hall of Famer did not respond well to off-season knee surgery. All my notes from '08 on Harrison have a consistent theme: Harrison did not separate against single coverage. If he couldn't produce in his perfect situation with the Colts, with tons of weekly targets, he's unlikely to produce a lot elsewhere.
John Clayton cites Chicago, Philadelphia, and Tennessee as possible destinations, and those make sense. But Harrison won't be a priority for any of those teams. He is not going to be one of those players signed in the first few days of free agency. His chance for maximum production would be to return to the Colts.
It remains to be seen, though, how he'll react to contract offers that may see him as a role player - a third receiver type off the bench. This is a first Ballot Hall of Famer with a lot of pride. It wouldn't shock me if Harrison decides it's not worth the trouble.
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