Priming for the playoffs
Tiffany and I already start looking ahead to Week 14, along with some waiver pickups. How low should Tony Romo go in the rankings?
Our 100K picks after the jump
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Comments
As a Tony Romo owner I haved a difficult decision. Unfortunately I don’t have the luxury of choosing between Romo and someone like Warner or Rodgers. I do however have two lesser options with great matchups. Before I tell you who, here is how QB scoring works in my league. At 150 passing yards a QB gets 3 points then 1 point per 25 yards after that. They get 4 points for a passing TD and 6 points for a rushing TD. They do NOT lose points for turnovers of any kind. So here is the decision I have to make, start Romo @ Pittsburgh, Frerotte @ Detroit, or Thigpen @ Denver. Detroit and Denver are both so bad but at the same time Minnesota and KC (with LJ back) are run first offenses while Dallas is defiantly pass first. On the other hand the Pittsburgh Defense has not allowed 300 total yards in a game this year and has only once given up more than one TD! This may very well be the most difficult decision Fantasy football decision I’ve ever had to make. Much of my past playoff success is due to the fact for the most part I stick to mantra, “dance with who brought ya.” That is why right now I’m leaning toward Romo because I think he is Dallas' only chance to win this week. Could this come down to the weather on game day? Frerotte’s playing in a dome! Ahhh! Any advice is appreciated.
Posted by: Eric | December 3, 2008 10:15 AM
As a former Romo owner, I feel your pain.
I disagree with your KC analysis. LJ's touches -- and his yardage -- are not indicative of a "run first" offense. They have become a spread offense, and if you look at the numbers from the past six or so weeks, you'll see that on the stat line.
They *did* have challenges with Oakland, but then again, who hasn't. Oakland's pass D is underrated.
Go Thigpen.
Posted by: Brian | December 3, 2008 10:52 AM
i have s. jax, jones-drew, and d. williams.... need to win to get in... which two? also rivers or thigpen? your a lifesaver, thanks
Posted by: richard | December 3, 2008 01:15 PM
Eric - I think I'd go with Romo. I'd be strongly tempted to go with Frerotte - though tempered by the fact that Frerotte only had 296 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT against DET at home - also in a dome. DET is sure susceptible to allowing a big game, but only 5 of 13 QB's have had big games against the Lions - I guess they stop passing early due to big leads!
But, checking out the Steeler's stats against QB's (explained below), it's not likely any QB will get a lot of points against them, but they don't often see Romo's weapons - their one bad QB performance was against the Colts.
But I'm also a "dance with who brung ya" guy and I'd probably start Romo.
Whenever I want to compare QB's opponents, I go to:
http://www.fftoday.com/stats/index.htm
and click on the lower left's "FF Points allowed - QB's".
Pittsburgh's surrendered 11 TDs to opposing QBs compared to 15 for Denver and 20 for Detroit. The respective passing yards surrendered are 2290, 2949, and 2715. In
Also clicking on the teams shows that in my league's terms (1fpt/25 PAyds, 6 pts any TD, -2/turnover), Detroit has only given up more than 17 points 5 times in 13 games (the NFL average is 15.5), probably because teams like to run after they get a lead. Frerotte had 15.8 last time. Detroit gives up an avg. 18.6 mainly because Aaron Rodgers had 31.6 one game and Kyle Orton 26.4.
Denver's given up 16.5 per game on the year, but in the last three weeks allowed Matt Ryan 9.8 fpts. and Bret Favre 7.9. So I'd definitely go with Romo over Thigpen.
Pittsburg has only allowed ONE QB more than 15.2 fpts - Peyton Manning's 27.6. But even Joe Flacco managed 11.6 at Pittsburgh. With Romo's weapon's, he has a reasonable chance of putting up numbers like Peyton did. So I'm pretty sure I'd start him.
You can also go select "players" from the menu bar at the site I listed and check out each QB in detail.
I have nothing to do with that site, I just use it for the great stats: if you register (free), you can input your league's scoring rules (or a good approximation) and see all the stats in your own terms.
Posted by: The_Mick | December 3, 2008 01:21 PM
Who should I start this week in the Playoffs? Marion Barber or Kevin Smith?
Posted by: Donny Sands | December 3, 2008 02:02 PM
Erc:
Possible Correction to my last comment:
Watch the weather in Pittsburgh. If it's just snow, it's no big deal, but if it's mixed precipitation or if it's very windy, I'd go with Frerotte.
Posted by: The_Mick | December 3, 2008 02:39 PM
I was offered a trade, to get greg jennings and trade Reggie wayne. I have aaron rodgers as my qb, westbrook and forte at rb, and lee evans, jerricho c, and hines ward at receiver. Not sure if the trade is smart. Any suggestions
Posted by: Brian R | December 3, 2008 02:42 PM