Mediocre QB vs. Great RB
As anyone within earshot of me this week knows, I'm one of the final 141 people alive in the FFOC. Essentially the competition starts over every week at this point until the top-15 are decided; top 57 from Week 14 advance, then the top-15 to the finals. The top 15 are guaranteed a minimum $3,500 and the winner gets a cool million bucks. I know my odds are still long, but I'll take a 1/10 chance for serious cash.
My toughest decision this week come at my flex spot. In their scoring system, you can play a QB at the flex. On most teams, it's a no-brainer to play two quarterbacks every week. I still do it almost every week. But my team's biggest weakness by far is not having a great QB2. (Thanks Carson Palmer). I have four running backs that I often rank in the top ten overall, with only two spots to use, so a few are usually on the bench.
This week my decision comes down to one of these three playing in the flex spot:
Steven Jackson vs. Arizona
Brandon Jacobs vs. Philadelphia
Shaun Hill vs. Jets
You look at the names and your gut says to play your running back stud. But the numbers don't bear it out.
Hill is averaging 17 fantasy points per-game, and that includes the time he came in at halftime. Jacobs and Jackson are at 15 and 13.8 FP per-game respectively. The margin for error is certainly greater for quarterbacks. Hill's worst game of the season came last week against the Bills. He scored 12 fantasy points. Jackson and Jacobs, who both played solid football, averaged the same total. (We get 4 points per passing touchdown). The running backs may have higher ceilings, but they have more potential to bust.
The matchups don't really help the situation. On paper, the Eagles look tough. But Jacobs rushed for 126 yards and two scores last time against them. Jackson is healthy and playing a mediocre Arizona defense that just revived Brian Westbrook's season. Hill is facing a Jets secondary that is among the five easiest to score fantasy points against. I expect a pass-heavy approach against New York.
I know which way I'm leaning. What would you do?
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Posted by: whacrolla | December 28, 2008 03:46 AM