Mediocre QB vs. Great RB
As anyone within earshot of me this week knows, I'm one of the final 141 people alive in the FFOC. Essentially the competition starts over every week at this point until the top-15 are decided; top 57 from Week 14 advance, then the top-15 to the finals. The top 15 are guaranteed a minimum $3,500 and the winner gets a cool million bucks. I know my odds are still long, but I'll take a 1/10 chance for serious cash.
My toughest decision this week come at my flex spot. In their scoring system, you can play a QB at the flex. On most teams, it's a no-brainer to play two quarterbacks every week. I still do it almost every week. But my team's biggest weakness by far is not having a great QB2. (Thanks Carson Palmer). I have four running backs that I often rank in the top ten overall, with only two spots to use, so a few are usually on the bench.
This week my decision comes down to one of these three playing in the flex spot:
Steven Jackson vs. Arizona
Brandon Jacobs vs. Philadelphia
Shaun Hill vs. Jets
You look at the names and your gut says to play your running back stud. But the numbers don't bear it out.
Hill is averaging 17 fantasy points per-game, and that includes the time he came in at halftime. Jacobs and Jackson are at 15 and 13.8 FP per-game respectively. The margin for error is certainly greater for quarterbacks. Hill's worst game of the season came last week against the Bills. He scored 12 fantasy points. Jackson and Jacobs, who both played solid football, averaged the same total. (We get 4 points per passing touchdown). The running backs may have higher ceilings, but they have more potential to bust.
The matchups don't really help the situation. On paper, the Eagles look tough. But Jacobs rushed for 126 yards and two scores last time against them. Jackson is healthy and playing a mediocre Arizona defense that just revived Brian Westbrook's season. Hill is facing a Jets secondary that is among the five easiest to score fantasy points against. I expect a pass-heavy approach against New York.
I know which way I'm leaning. What would you do?
Comments
Well said John.
You've got me thinking about my big $ league. I have Thigpen in there right now but could add Hill (or play Big Ben). I'd never normally post a personal question here but it's do or die this week. I'd appreciate any insight from anyone willing to share. We get pt/20yds, 5pt/TD, -2/Int, and bonuses for big play/game. Thx and good luck this week to Gregg and all the faithful blog readers!
Posted by: Steve | December 4, 2008 02:27 PM
I'd go with Hill for sure. With so much on the line, his higher downside makes for a nice security blanket. Plus, he only needs to have an average-ish game (220 and 2) to match or exceed the points an RB can score with a good game (90-110 and 1). The weather in SF will be quite nice this weekend, too.
Steve, I'd definitely stick with Thigpen.
Posted by: Tenac | December 4, 2008 06:22 PM
i'd go with Jacobs (and if you win you'll need to cut me in on 1% of that million for helping you) :)
Posted by: josh | December 4, 2008 11:43 PM
for a non ppr format its Hill with the upside. S.jax and jacobs would have to score to form what Hill, will do at minimum.
Posted by: abruzzi | December 5, 2008 07:33 AM
I've settled on Hill. I feel more comfortable with it. Thanks to all!
Posted by: gregg | December 5, 2008 12:35 PM
good think you settled on Hill. He was the smart choice and it likely paid off
Posted by: Anonymous | December 7, 2008 07:39 PM
Yep - it paid off. It didnt make a huge difference, had my best week of the season, but he was a big part of it.
Posted by: gregg | December 8, 2008 11:12 AM