Mediocre QB vs. Great RB
As anyone within earshot of me this week knows, I'm one of the final 141 people alive in the FFOC. Essentially the competition starts over every week at this point until the top-15 are decided; top 57 from Week 14 advance, then the top-15 to the finals. The top 15 are guaranteed a minimum $3,500 and the winner gets a cool million bucks. I know my odds are still long, but I'll take a 1/10 chance for serious cash.
My toughest decision this week come at my flex spot. In their scoring system, you can play a QB at the flex. On most teams, it's a no-brainer to play two quarterbacks every week. I still do it almost every week. But my team's biggest weakness by far is not having a great QB2. (Thanks Carson Palmer). I have four running backs that I often rank in the top ten overall, with only two spots to use, so a few are usually on the bench.
This week my decision comes down to one of these three playing in the flex spot:
Steven Jackson vs. Arizona
Brandon Jacobs vs. Philadelphia
Shaun Hill vs. Jets
You look at the names and your gut says to play your running back stud. But the numbers don't bear it out.
Hill is averaging 17 fantasy points per-game, and that includes the time he came in at halftime. Jacobs and Jackson are at 15 and 13.8 FP per-game respectively. The margin for error is certainly greater for quarterbacks. Hill's worst game of the season came last week against the Bills. He scored 12 fantasy points. Jackson and Jacobs, who both played solid football, averaged the same total. (We get 4 points per passing touchdown). The running backs may have higher ceilings, but they have more potential to bust.
The matchups don't really help the situation. On paper, the Eagles look tough. But Jacobs rushed for 126 yards and two scores last time against them. Jackson is healthy and playing a mediocre Arizona defense that just revived Brian Westbrook's season. Hill is facing a Jets secondary that is among the five easiest to score fantasy points against. I expect a pass-heavy approach against New York.
I know which way I'm leaning. What would you do?
Comments
I think you should go with the numbers (Hill).
It is hard to go with the numbers and bench Jackson, but in the long run that is what will get you the most points.
If matchups said something else then by all means do it (for example the Jackson matchup looks good) but as you said the Jets matchup isn't bad for Hill.
Posted by: J | December 4, 2008 11:09 AM
The Jets O-line is likely to push the mediocre 49ers line around. I don't think the Niners will have the ball more than 20-23 minutes. Go with S-Jax!
Posted by: Shyam | December 4, 2008 12:13 PM
You can rule out Jacobs right away because of the time share and the likelihood that they'll limit him to make sure he's available for the playoffs.
I really like Jackson's matchup, and would start him if it were ppr or if Hill was facing a team that could cover, but I voted Hill in this situation because Martz will know to throw, at home, to exploit the Jets' weakness on defense.
Btw, Gregg, do your other two backs have better matchups than Jackson?
Posted by: Chad F. | December 4, 2008 12:17 PM
I would go with Jacobs. Hill looked terrible last week and i think the jets will be angry after their loss and will blitz like crazy.
s-jax can't be trusted, he could easily tweak something during the game, and why would STL risk him to save a hopeless season? Plus AZ isnt bad against the run.
jacobs might only get 15 touches before ward takes over but they trust him down at the goal line. and he usually gets at least 2 15 yard runs mixed in there.
Posted by: mike bridger | December 4, 2008 01:17 PM
My other RBs are Forte vs. Jacksonville and Chris Johnson vs. Cleveland.
I could bench Johnson for Jackson but I doubt I will.
Posted by: Gregg | December 4, 2008 01:35 PM
Gregg, I have Hill starting as a flex on 3 of my pay leagues where we also can flex a QB. I think that SF will get behind the Jets and he will have to throw all day to catch up. His INTs per TD ratio have been good, so Hill seems like a good low risk, high reward kind of play.
Posted by: Jimbo | December 4, 2008 01:49 PM
Westbrook had a good game because he had a QB who was throwing the ball effectively, I wouldn't count on bulger to do that. Jacobs, could be huge, but with other backs competing for carries, and coming off a recent injury, the downside is too great. What's shaun hill's real downside? They are playing a top notch run D and a bottom of the barrel pass D and Martz is the coordinator. There should be a lot of passes coming from hill.
Posted by: John | December 4, 2008 01:50 PM