November 14, 2008
1. The Jets receivers are a little bit like Patriots running backs. You aren't sure what you are going to get week-to-week. Cotchery and Coles are both on pace for under 1,000 yards, which is a disappointment. But the difference here is that Cotchery and Coles should stay in lineups - except perhaps against Tennessee next week. Overall, the Jets passing game has improved and the schedule is favorable. They will be fine. Coles looks more like a WR3 than a WR2.
2. The Jets' offensive line has really improved since the start of the year. They pushed New England back in the running game all night. They were opening up a lot of holes that Thomas Jones seemed to miss.
3. Dustin Keller has clearly become a favorite of Brett Favre's. Like the other receivers, I wouldn't expect steady production, but he's proven he's capable of some big "up" weeks. Last night's dropped touchdown notwithstanding.
Okay people: The updated rankings are up. See you Sunday.
Tiffany and I preview Redskins and Cowboys below. See me look like the biggest slob possible while recommending Roy Williams stay on the bench. And watch me end the show by getting Tiffany off her game by using eight-year-old humor. Success! (Other matchups including my decision to bench LT after the jump.)
Continue reading "Benching Roy and LT2" »
Some thoughts on the Patriots after a night in Foxboro.
1. Evan Silva is worried about the hype meter reading on Matt Cassel after last night. I agree with him in principle. It sounds strange, but I dont think he played that much better than most of his games. He took advantage of a great gameplan and a situation where they played hurry up for more than half the game.
With that said, Matt Cassel is a good NFL starting quarterback. Not great, but he's come a long way quickly and is surrounded by good weapons. That is a surprise I don't think he turns into a QB1, but he's an option against lesser defenses. (I'm looking at you Seattle.) That's mostly how we've pegged him all along.
Continue reading "Cassel the savior?" »
November 13, 2008
As a Chris Johnson owner in my two money leagues, I was eager to see how he'd fare on the road against a quality defense last week. This is really the last test of true fantasy stardom. The previous time in a similar situation, against Baltimore, he finished with only 46 total yards on 20 touches. That looked like a huge day compared to last Sunday, when the Bears held him to 23 total yards on 16 touches. I benched Matt Forte for Johnson in both leagues and it cost me one win.
So Johnson hasn't passed that test. There are many reasons for it, starting with Chicago's non-stop safety blitzes that totally disrupted the Titans running game. Chicago made the Titans throw the ball and eventually they obliged. LenDale White pilfered a potential performance-saving touchdown from Johnson, although Johnson was in on the goal line early in the game.
Whatever the reasons, Johnson isn't quite at top-five must start level yet. And you know what? I'm not that concerned. He has six games left, and four are plus matchups: Jacksonville, Detroit, Cleveland, and Houston. He should do his thing those weeks. The two tough matchups are at home. He faces the Jets in Week 12 and the Steelers in Week 16. Johnson's margin for error in tough matchups is a little lower than you'd want because White will steal some scores and the rookie is unlikely to top 20 touches. He also isn't as involved in the passing game as he could be, like Forte.
You can consider other top-15 options in place of Johnson in those two weeks - I will be benching him in those games for Matt Forte - but don't let the Bears game scare you away from Johnson's talent. This isn't the time to cash in your chips.
November 12, 2008
Below is a Jets-Patriots preview from yours truly and Ms. Simons. I will be headed to the game with Rotoworld Kingpin Rick Cordella, ready to make extensive use of the Foxborough parking lot. Both defenses are better defending the run than the pass, and lately both teams are better running the ball than throwing it. It will be strength on strength, weakness on weakness. Thomas Jones and the Patriots backs are shakier plays than you'd think because of the strong run defense played by both teams.
In the preview, I said I expected aggressive passing games from both teams - especially the Jets. The weather, however, could be a factor. It's expected to rain during the game. Light rain would not be an issue, it may even help the offenses. Hard driving rain would make it a sloppy game based more on field position. That suits the ball control Patriots just fine. In the end, it would take a monsoon for me to bench Coles, Cotchery, Welker, and Moss in most formats.
Each week, I write up some borderline plays for a NBC press release. When I remember, I post them here.
Tyler Thigpen vs. Saints: Kansas City’s new spread attack has turned around a dead offense in a hurry. Thigpen is a factor in November! (And the Saints best cornerback Mike McKenzie is now out for the season). Mark Bradley, also a sneaky play last week, still qualifies.
Matt Ryan vs. Broncos: The best rookie quarterback since Dan Marino is ahead in his development compared to Brady Quinn. And the Broncos made Quinn look like a Pro Bowler.
Jerious Norwood, Falcons: Quietly leading the NFL in yards-per-carry again and has topped 50 total yards in three straight
Marvin Harrison vs. Texans: Everyone else has given up on Harrison except Peyton Manning. He’s still getting targets and favorable matchups, especially in the red zone. The matchup is right for a rebound.
Bobby Engram vs. Cardinals: Matt Hasselbeck wakes up the human third down conversion.
My third question last Sunday was: Will Shaun Hill be the next great Mike Martz quarterback?
Monday night was not encouraging. I will forever be indebted to Hill for closing out my league championship win in the FFOC with a pair of scores ($250 in the pocket, now on to the $1 million!). But Hill's play was a mixed bag at best. He is known for his decision making, but made a lot of curious throws. Three of his passes were picked off, even if two were called back by penalty. Hill did show nice touch on deep passes and was the only one poised in the final frantic minutes.
The 49ers went vertical more than we expected, but ultimately Mike Martz still called a conservative game against a lackluster secondary. Part of the reason Martz had to play it safe was that the San Francisco offensive line is a joke. Removing J.T. O'Sullivan doesn't fix that problem.
It was Hill's first start in Martz's system, so some slack should be granted. Without a great arm, though, Hill needs to play smarter to be an effective fantasy quarterback. At least he doesn't face a single negative matchup the rest of the way. All in all, my initial tier ranking for Hill looks a tad optimistic now.
November 11, 2008
Tiffany and I talk waiver picks below, although my comments on Peyton Hillis came before the Tatum Bell signing. My take on Bell: I'd still rather own Hillis and probably Selvin Young, depending on Young's health. Bell hurts the value of both players though. We can expect to continue seeing a committee, meaning that I've already spent too long talking about the situation. Bell knows the offense, but will have to get back into football shape. He also has no future with the team. With that said, everyone may get a crack at this thing before we're done.
(Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Bradley, both available in many leagues, would be closer to getting into most of my lineups.)
Another question we were hoping to answer in Week 10.
Who’s the man in the Baltimore backfield?
Baltimore is turning into Denver East: confusing the hell out of fantasy owners on a weekly basis, but finding production no matter who they turn to. Baltimore's three-headed monster is ranked fourth as a team in rushing yards this season. The young offensive line is playing with a nasty edge. Against Houston, Willis McGahee got 26 touches despite Ray Rice starting and reports indicting McGahee wasn’t 100%.
There is no answer to this question ultimately. John Harbaugh says all three players will stay involved and the lead back may depend on the matchup. Rice is clearly the most explosive, while McGahee figures to be the steadiest. The problem is the schedule. Baltimore has all four NFC East teams and Pittsburgh left before the end of the fantasy season. Other than a Week 13 game against Cincy, all the Baltimore backs will be shaky plays.
November 10, 2008
One of the segments we do in Fantasy Fix Live to preview Sunday is to ask five big questions the day will hopefully answer. Since I spent the Morning After doing tiers, I thought following up on these questions would be a good way to start taking stock of Week 10.
1. Can Calvin Johnson survive the transition to Daunte Culpepper?
I've been worried about Megatron's season collapsing for a while because the Detroit situation around him looks so hopeless. He scores every week, but catches fewer than half his targets. Sunday was more of the same: two catches for 92 yards. He didn't score for the first time in five weeks, but he still made big plays.
It appears Culpepper won't crush him, but the schedule might: @ Carolina, Tampa, Tennessee, Minnesota, @ Indy, New Orleans. Don't forget the Colts are a tough matchup for quarterbacks.
Megatron breaks all the rules, but I'd still trade him for any other receiver ranked in the top ten except Santana Moss.
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