The Train could be running local
Watching Brandon Jacobs get stuffed on the goal line three times against Pittsburgh reminded me what a small margin for error Jacobs has. He doesn't catch passes and he often doesn't play when the Giants trail. He must score often to be an every-week fantasy back.
It feels like Jacobs is having a big fantasy season, but he's only ranked fourteenth in standard leagues. He's 19th in PPR leagues. That was against the soft part of the schedule. Now he faces a ridiculous gauntlet of matchups. According to our fantasy points allowed numbers, the easiest matchup left for Jacobs is Arizona, who is still better than average. The remaining seven games are against top-nine rush defenses.
Jacobs, one of my favorite NFL players, has been worth his draft slot; an excellent RB2 thus far. Don't expect that to continue.
Comments
I've got Jacobs who, as you say, is coming up against some tough competition, and Forte, who may have the dreaded "rookie wall" ahead of him. Which one should I be more concerned about/try to trade?
Posted by: Ricky | October 29, 2008 09:37 PM
I would be concerned with Forte.
As great as LT, Edge, and All Day were in there rookie seasons. They all hit the rookie wall in there first years. Go with him until he shows the "signs". One way to tell is if he doesn't get it done against team earlier in the season he would have. Case in point he plays the Lions at home this week and should have a great game. But if he doesn't keep your eye one him.
Posted by: Sean | October 30, 2008 12:53 AM
The advantage I'd give Forte over Jacobs is that Chicago doesn't really have any viable back up RB's breathing down Forte's neck. The Giants have Ward and Bradshaw (and in a pinch, Droughns). Since Forte can also be used on passing downs, he has the potiental to be the overall better back over the course of the rest of the season. With that said, I agree with Sean -- the rookie wall is a real problem in this instance and I think all 3 backs he names above are perfect examples of this.
Based on sheer production and schedule strength up to this point, I'd say Forte has the better CHANCE of longterm production. However, I think both of them start to become huge question marks as the season progresses.
I have both of them, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed...
Posted by: Anonymous | October 30, 2008 10:52 AM
The advantage I'd give Forte over Jacobs is that Chicago doesn't really have any viable back up RB's breathing down Forte's neck. The Giants have Ward and Bradshaw (and in a pinch, Droughns). Since Forte can also be used on passing downs, he has the potiental to be the overall better back over the course of the rest of the season. With that said, I agree with Sean -- the rookie wall is a real problem in this instance and I think all 3 backs he names above are perfect examples of this.
Based on sheer production and schedule strength up to this point, I'd say Forte has the better CHANCE of longterm production. However, I think both of them start to become huge question marks as the season progresses.
I have both of them, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed...
Posted by: PMart | October 30, 2008 10:52 AM
Fingers crossed here too. I am going to move one of them, as I need QB help. (Thanks Carson!) I guess I'll just see who'll net me the better deal.
Posted by: Ricky | October 30, 2008 12:09 PM
I was fortunate enough to be able to unload Jacobs a couple of days before the Giants played Pittsburgh along with Felix Jones, Desean Jackson & Malcolm Floyd for AP. I already has Kevin Curtis so Jackson was expendable and with Jones hurt and a bye week fill-in in Floyd, I think I got over like a fat rat. The other owner I already made the trade with is already regreting it, but he was 3-4 at the time and Peterson was on bye and he has no RB depth whatsoever so I pounced at the perfect time.
Jacobs schedule is brutal down the strecth and they have almost all their division games to play. If I was still a jacobs owner, I would make a play for Addai or somebody else on that vein while I still had a chance.
Posted by: The Swordzman | October 30, 2008 01:17 PM
Last flex spot...Mewelde Moore, Tim Hightower, or
Calvin Johnson?
Posted by: RK | October 30, 2008 01:45 PM