October 10, 2008
Dan Orlovsky looks likely to make his first NFL start Sunday. Despite the wishes of Lions fans, the coaching staff doesn't appear comfortable with Drew Stanton. They would have to shave off a big portion of the playbook if he went out there.
So does Orlovsky crush the value of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson? It hurts it, but not as much as you think. It's not like Orlovsky can do that much worse than Jon Kitna, who has averaged under five yards-per-attempt his last two starts. And Detroit will have to pass often against Minnesota, because that's the only reasonable way to attack them. Orlovsky could be a high volume thrower like last week, where he threw 23 passes in the second half.
Continue reading "The Orlovsky effect and much more" »
Marques Colston appears to be on track to return from his thumb surgery a week early. Jeremy Shockey owners probably have to carry another tight end for an extra week. Shockey missed practice Thursday, and didn't sound optimistic about returning against the Raiders.
"I really don't have (a targeted return date)," Shockey said. "God willing, I wish I could play last week. I hope I can play this week."
Continue reading "Colston better bet than Shockey" »
October 09, 2008
The Rankings are up, now with disjointed notes. We also have a slew of fantasy videos, including matchups, a Sunday Night Preview, and some trade tips. I'll should finally have some time for blogging tomorrow. And a Season Pass chat at 3. See you guys then.
October 08, 2008
Wednesday is hump day, the day we move on from talking about last week, and start looking ahead. Well, really, I begin my Week 6 prep with the Season Pass rankings on Tuesday.
Anyhow, one of my random responsibilities of the week is a list of five good borderline or sleeper plays for an NBC press release touting Sunday Night Football. Here it is below, with a freebie thrown in:
1. Chad Pennington @ Texans: With a strong running game at his back, Pennington can pick on single coverage over the middle from a weak Houston secondary.
2. Kyle Orton @ Falcons: Atlanta's defense has overachieved, but the secondary is terrible and Orton is playing the best ball of his life.
3. Steve Slaton @ Dolphins: This will be Slaton's last time on a "sleeper" list. The versatile talent is now an every-week fantasy starter.
Continue reading "Looking ahead" »
October 07, 2008
These rankings are based on who has been the most valuable asset for fantasy owners this season, with extra points given to players who have given bang for the draft slot buck. And, uh, they are totally subjective and meaningless so I'll save you the trouble of telling me the same.
1. Reggie Bush: Because of his punt return scores, Bush is contending for top honors in non-PPR leagues. In PPR leagues, he's been an awesome value.
2. Jay Cutler: The Bucs game hurts his average, but he's carried teams as a mid-round pick.
3. Michael Turner: Inconsistency hurts, but he's won some weeks by himself.
4. Frank Gore: Steady she goes.
5. Clinton Portis: Volume runner in a sea of RBBCs
Continue reading "Ridiculously early and irregular Fantasy MVP Watch" »
Tiffany and I talk waiver picks, including my choice between Mike Walker and Domenic Hixon (Walker), my favorite one-week pickup (Brandon Stokley), and my favorite long-term pickup still out there in 50% of leagues (Justin Fargas). See, now you don't even need to watch.
Update: This story about Walker's knee injury looks to render any hype about him moot. Especially considering his chronic problems with the injury.
I watched the Shortcuts of the Chargers-Dolphins game, expecting to see another hobbled performance by LaDainian Tomlinson. Instead I found out that his offensive line was a bigger problem than his toe. Miami just manhandled San Diego's once fierce unit, hitting LT2 in the backfield countless times. The Dolphins front is for real. They are getting great efforts by rookies Kendal Langford and Philip Merling. Joey Porter and Matt Roth are a surprisingly forceful tandem off the edge. Jason Ferguson is rejuvenated at tackle. I don't think this defense is going away.
This sounds crazy, but Tomlinson looked just as good, if not better, than his "breakout" game against Oakland. Tomlinson was bottled up most of the day against Oakland before a big late run, but didn't show much explosion. LT2 did have a couple solid plays against Miami where he showed a glimpse of his old burst, despite the low stat line. He pulled off a nice spin move, but isn't making enough people miss in the open field. But there isn't much you can do when free rushers meet you in the backfield. San Diego's offensive line is not what it once was. Tomlinson won't be either until they improve.
October 03, 2008
Rankings Updates this week:
Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers moved down. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start, O'Sullivan down a bit, Kitna up because of the Bears injuries, Schaub up a bit
Running Backs: Rudi Johnson down, Kevin Smith out, Westbrook looks like he'll start, Ryan Grant down a bit, Chris Perry up.
Wide Receivers: If Rodgers is out, the Packers wideouts are hands off. They are ranked as if Rodgers is starting. Ocho Cinco and Housh move up because of the Palmer news. Rice and Berrian are questionable. Gage, Boldin, and Patten are off the list. Steve Breaston, Hixon, and Deion Branch are all on the list. Breaston is high. Amani Toomer is down some. Kevin Walter is up. Camarillo is barely on. Roy Williams moves up a tad.
Maybe this is the homer in me coming out, but I'd be afraid to use J.T. O'Sullivan this week. I have no idea what to expect out the Patriots offense, but their defense should be surly and primed after their bye week to cause havoc for the 49ers. Bill Belichick always comes up with some clever designs after a bye week, and the Patriots usually play their best coming off a loss.
This is a litmus test for where this team is going. A "normal" Patriots defense responds and smacks San Francisco around. And Matt Cassel and company would copy the spread principles New Orleans used last week and have their best game. I have my doubts about the offense (although I like Laurence Maroney to have his best game), but I'd be surprised if O'Sullivan has a good game.
As my overly gushy rankings indicated, I think Lance Moore is here to stay. Not quite as the '07 Wes Welker, but perhaps an '07 Donald Driver or Shaun McDonald: 80+ catches, 1,000 yards, and a handful of scores. I'm in the tank.
Those who missed out on Moore may want to look at Arnaz Battle, who has a chance to be an even lesser version of McDonald in Mike Martz's offense. The targets will be inconsistent in San Francisco, but Battle is the best option as the hot read for J.T. O'Sullivan in the slot. His 120 yards last week were not a fluke, and I could see a lot of 6 catch, 70-yard outings from Battle, which would make him a useful PPR option. He's always been a player with good hands, smarts, and toughness. He's quicker than fast. Despite being bigger than the usual Martz creation, I think Battle fits the offense well.
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