October 31, 2008
As Mike Singletary's PantsGate hits day two, the coach of the 49ers is apparently interested in finding out what players leaked the story to the press. Because he should definitely keep this story in the headlines as long as possible.
Well, I'm no Sherlock Holmes, but didn't Dan Bickley and Mike Jurecki "break" this important story earlier this week? Both guys are members of the Arizona media; they were not at the 49ers game Sunday. Former Cardinals on the 49ers: Bryant Johnson! Yes, this post is completely irresponsible and speculative. And pointless - hey, it's Friday.
The bright side in all this: Maybe revealing Johnson's identity will get everyone's favorite Rotoworld mistake Josh Morgan back on the field soon!
In five years on this job, I can't remember a trio that came out of nowhere more than Derek Anderson, Ryan Grant, and Earnest Graham last season. They went from off-the-radar to every-week fantasy starters in a matter of weeks. They weren't up-and-coming prospects or fallen sleepers with pedigrees; Graham and Grant were fourth-string running backs and Anderson started the year as a backup on a hopeless-looking team.
This year, they have fallen back to Earth. Graham remains a stellar running back, but Warrick Dunn is stealing his catches. He's lived up to his draft value well enough, but he's on pace to put similar numbers to last season. The difference: he only started ten times last year. I'd guess his owners are content, but not thrilled with him.
Continue reading "Surprises of 2007 coming up short" »
October 30, 2008
I wasn't sure how to feel about the Colts offense after Monday Night's loss to the Titans. On one hand, they protected Peyton Manning better than they have all season. The offensive line also blocked well for Dominic Rhodes. This was supposed to be a brutal matchup for the big men up front, and they held up well.
On the other hand, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison did squat. Peyton Manning oddly missed some passes. Some of his deep balls fluttered, although I suspect that was because of the wind. In the end, I'm not discouraged the Colts managed to put up 21 points. It was the Titans. And I love the Colts remaining schedule against the pass. The Colts get a favorable matchup against the Patriots Sunday night, and then the Steelers the following week. Then, nirvana:
Continue reading "Colts set up from strong stretch run" »
October 29, 2008
Watching Brandon Jacobs get stuffed on the goal line three times against Pittsburgh reminded me what a small margin for error Jacobs has. He doesn't catch passes and he often doesn't play when the Giants trail. He must score often to be an every-week fantasy back.
It feels like Jacobs is having a big fantasy season, but he's only ranked fourteenth in standard leagues. He's 19th in PPR leagues. That was against the soft part of the schedule. Now he faces a ridiculous gauntlet of matchups. According to our fantasy points allowed numbers, the easiest matchup left for Jacobs is Arizona, who is still better than average. The remaining seven games are against top-nine rush defenses.
Jacobs, one of my favorite NFL players, has been worth his draft slot; an excellent RB2 thus far. Don't expect that to continue.
The Patriots head to Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday night for a game that should help alleviate any concern fantasy owners have with Peyton Manning. The running backs for both teams are less certain options. LaMont Jordan returned to practice Wednesday. If he makes it through the week, he hurts Kevin Faulk's chances to be a flex play. I'd rather use Jordan because his rugged style will be leaned on against the Colts. BGE's time in the sun is probably over if Jordan gets healthy. LaMont has a decent shot to stick as the Patriots starter for a while.
Joseph Addai should also return for this game. While he may split carries this week, I'd still use him as a RB2 against a Patriots team that will need to drop a lot of defenders in coverage. If Addai is a surprise last-minute scratch, you should have Dominic Rhodes waiting in reserve.
Each week, I write up some borderline fantasy plays I like for NBC's PR department for a press release. When I remember, I post them here ...
Chad Pennington vs. Broncos: Pennington’s revival is for real; he’s second in the league in yards-per-attempt. If he can average 300 yards against the Bills and Ravens, he’s going over the mark at Denver.
Kyle Orton vs. Lions: Six quarterbacks who have faced Detroit this season have enjoyed career best passer rating numbers. Orton for MVP!
Continue reading "Borderline plays" »
October 28, 2008
In this Week's Waiver show, I talk Kolby Smith, Ted Ginn, Shaun Hill, Ray Rice, and many more. I watched the Bills-Dolphins Shortcuts last night to see Ginn's breakout game. First of all, great game. Not one of Trent Edwards' better games and I worry that the Bills receivers can't get open other than Evans. Edwards had time early in the game, but could not find people. Fred Jackson continued to play a ton, especially in the red zone. Losing Josh Reed hurts them, which says a lot.
I thought it was a great sign for the Dolphins that they won the game without running the ball that well. Ginn and Chad Pennington were the keys. Ginn made a great mid-air adjustment on a go route on the first play of the game. That brings up a bit of his problem with Pennington; Ginn is a vertical threat on a team that works best over the middle. I need to see Ginn top 60 yards again to get too excited.
My 100K picks, starring some of this year's biggest surprises at quarterback, are after the jump.
Continue reading "Mr. Ginn's coming out party " »
We do a weekly feature on Fantasy Fix Live called "This Week's Defense." It has ideas for owners who choose to play the wire instead of sticking with one defense all season. The same strategy could work at tight end this season if you don't own a steady every-week option. There are a lot of mediocre tight ends on pace for competent seasons, but few standouts. There happen to be a bevy of good one-week pickups in Week 9 ...
Desmond Clark vs. Lions: Detroit is the worst at a lot of things, including covering tight ends. According to our handy Season Pass feature, they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Marcedes Lewis vs. Bengals: Lewis gets more targets each week and the Bengals once-promising secondary keeps getting worse.
Continue reading "This Week's Tight End" »
October 27, 2008
Marc Bulger and I have history. He's won me some fantasy leagues and money. I'm predisposed to liking him. Who doesn't love beautifully timed 20-yard passes?
The Marc Bulger I watched early in his career is not there anymore. I'm writing this today because his 300-yard effort against the Patriots will probably have many hoping for a revival. It's unlikely. Donnie Avery has given the Rams offense a huge shot in the arm, but Bulger is still showing the same bad habits from last season. He's falling away from pressure and doesn't hang tough in the pocket.
If there is such a thing as an ugly 300 yard-game, Bulger had it versus the banged-up Patriots secondary. There were plays to be made, but the accuracy and pocket presence were lacking. Bulger also isn't helped by his teammates. His wideouts are poor other than Avery and the offensive line is average at best. While the schedule is favorable, remember that Bulger has only one game over 200 yards all season. Sunday's stats against New England were an anomaly.
I left a few storylines out of the Morning After in an effort to get it posted by 2AM. (No Sunday Night Football has its perks.) One was the outrageous development of Roddy White, top-five receiver. Sunday against the Eagles marked another big step in the fantasy growth of the Matt Ryan-to-White combination.
They were on the road, against a tough defense, Ryan didn't play particularly well. But he played well enough to post excellent fantasy stats and get the ball to White for his fourth 100-yard game in five. (The other was 90 yards.) That's amazing for a rookie quarterback.
White is the NFC's Lee Evans, developing an all-field game when he was once just a deep threat. White may be even better than Evans because he's more physical. White is the number one fantasy wideout thus far in standard leagues; he's third in PPR leagues. We can stop waiting for him to slow down.
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