Randy Moss probably isn't going to score 23 touchdowns again this season. His owners are now wondering if he's even going to score ten.
That question was front and center on my mind yesterday when I received an offer in one of my industry leagues: Moss for Jerricho Cotchery. It's a points-per-reception league, and that informed my decision to keep Cotchery. I'd be shocked if Cotchery doesn't catch 85 passes. I wouldn't be shocked if Moss caught only 65. Moss will rebound, and I'd still bet on a top-15 receiver finish. I would make the trade in a standard league, but I'm holding on to the sure thing in Cotchery. How much can change in three weeks!
Let me know if you would do the same thing.
* And to my emailer John: Yes, that means I'd trade Moss for Andre 1500.
Possible Waiver pickups, focusing on new names rather than the ones I ranked last week (and usually still like.) The usual caveat: I'm inevitably missing many possibilities depending on your league, scoring system, and the amount of brain cells I have left this week. Mr. Wesseling will be on the column tomorrow.
Running Backs
1. LeRon McClain
2. Correll Buckhalter
3. Kenny Watson
4. Rudi Johnson
5. Ryan Torain
6. Lorenzo Booker
7. T.J. Duckett
Quarterbacks
1. Trent Edwards
2. Brian Griese
3. Brady Quinn
4. Kerry Collins
5. Detroit leftovers
Wideouts
1. Bobby Engram
2. Antonio Bryant
3. Kevin Curtis
4. Amani Toomer
5. Deion Branch
6. Brandon Lloyd
7. Chris Henry
8. Robert Meachem/Lance Moore/Terrance Copper
9. Greg Camarillo
One of the quieter success stories of the season thus far is Santana Moss, an example of the quickly improving Washington offense. Moss caught seven passes for 75 yards and his third touchdown of the year against Arizona. He can't keep up his 16-touchdown pace, but his 19 receptions in three games is encouraging. This is a player that we'd usually downgrade in PPR leagues, but that should no longer be the case because he's catching higher percentage passes in Jim Zorn's West Coast offense. His catch percentage last year was 53%. This year, it's 68%.
Is Moss can just throw in an occasional big play like his 67-yard bomb in Week 2, his yards-per-reception will remain high despite the different role. He's not a guy I'd be eager to sell high on, unless you can get top-10 value. (He's currently second among wideouts in fantasy points.) Moss owners probably took him as a WR3, and they can expect WR2 value moving forward. That's how you win titles.
The Morning After, also known as "21 blog posts pasted together" is up, with my thoughts on candidates for buying low, selling high, and of course an ode to the NFL leader in yards from scrimmage - Frank Gore.
I will have a disjointed thought or two for you here about Week 3 once my brain is no longer made of cheese. In the meantime, feel free to amuse yourself with my friend Anthony's role on Comedy Central's Weekly Evil segment: Five Reasons Why Fantasy Football is Evil. He asked for ideas, but I was too lazy and unfunny to help. Thankfully, they did a good job perpetuating all the hurtful and untrue stereotypes of fantasy footballers.
QB: Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck moved up a bit. Carson Palmer moved down.
RB: Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson went down. Their backups went up. Darren McFadden fell, with Michael Bush moving up. Lauence Maroney went down with Sammy Morris moving up. LaMont Jordan is off. Michael Pittman is on the list. The Ravens backs are closer together.
WR: Jerry Porter is off again, Matt Jones is up. Courtney Taylor is off, Keary Colbert is on. Brandon Jones and Reggie Brown are barely on. Chris Chambers moved up a bit. Dwayne Bowe moved down.
Michael Bush is a fine pickup. A good, not great, lottery ticket with a decent chance to start some games this season. Just don't expect him to put up numbers this week if he gets a chance. The Bills rush defense has been shockingly good, stonewalling the Seahawks and Jaguars. Bush put up solid numbers late against the Chiefs and he has good feet for a big man. But he also lumbers down the field, and doesn't always run like a true power back, rarely getting many yards after contact.
I expect Darren McFadden to start this game anyhow, although it's far from certain. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the Bills and if he has canyon-sized lanes to run through again. Former Rotoworld writer Bill Barnwell noted on ESPN.com that McFadden was quite boom-or-bust in Week 2, not that fantasy owners cared. They will care if the booms are reduced against a quality defense this weekend.
Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian were probably overdrafted this season based on what they are capable of, rather than what their quarterback was capable of. Berrian was on our Busts list, but I didn't think Tarvaris Jackson would render him totally useless. He did that just that for two weeks.
We saw this change to Gus Frerotte coming miles away. Much like Kerry Collins in Tennessee, Frerotte doesn't have a lot of stand alone fantasy value, but he lifts his receivers. Also like Collins, Frerotte is totally immobile, has a huge arm, and will make questionable decisions. I wrote about what I saw from Frerotte on tape in '07 earlier this year, and it wasn't all bad. I'm not sure he'll win games, but he makes Rice and Berrian relevant again.
They are in deep trouble. The Jaguars were already going to attempt to pillage Indy's lightweight defensive line, weakened by Ed Johnson's release. Indy was pushed around by the big uglies against Chicago and Minnesota until selling out all resources to stop the run in the second half against the Vikings.
The Colts linebackers aren't bad (Clint Session looks like a nice find), but this team is still in deep trouble without Bob Sanders. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have historically lit up the Colts. Jacksonville's size advantage matches up well. But the Jaguars backs have lost their way after an avalanche of offensive line injuries, gaining only 97 rushing yards and a 2.77 YPC average in the first two weeks. If MJD and Taylor don't Taylor don't put up big numbers against the Colts, it's going to be a long season for their owners.
I was scanning the leaders and trailers in one of my leagues today, and couldn't help notice two of the defensive teams in the bottom five: San Diego and Minnesota. Ted Cottrell strikes again! There have been extenuating circumstances (Shawne Merriman's injury, Minnesota's schedule), but these were the top two defenses taken this off-season. It's only two weeks, but it's another reminder to hold off on taking defenses until late in the draft. There is no other position, other than kicker, with freely available talent guaranteed to score for you.
The Seahawks are another disappointment even though they put up a huge fantasy day in Week 2. The secondary is struggling. They recorded eight sacks against the 49ers, but gave up way too many big plays. In the same game, 49ers showed how poor their rush defense is. They couldn't tackle Julius Jones, who was running much harder than he was at the end of his days in Seattle. The 49ers have made Edgerrin James and Jones look good in successive weeks. Something to keep in mind for Kevin Smith owners in Week 3.
