Knocking Manning
The more I hear about Peyton Manning's recovery, the less I enjoy what I'm hearing. Jim Irsay's comments the other day didn't sound great. The Colts recognize Manning could miss Week 1. Considering Manning's reputation and the original timeframe we heard, that was a surprise. Mike Lombardi's post about Manning threw gas on the fire, likely to scare the crap out of anyone drafting this weekend.
The reality is, we just don't know that much. We know it was supposed to be a four-to-six week recovery. He had surgery five weeks ago; that's a concern. But if all the speculation ever got past the rumor stage, national reporters would be trying to out-scoop each other. Lombardi would be on NFL Network tonight breaking the news.
Next week will be telling. If Manning hasn't practiced by next Friday, then the concern rises. But now we are just dealing in guesswork. I'd rather deal in what I know to be true, which is hard to find in fantasy football.
Peyton Manning should put up top-five QB numbers when he plays. That we know. What that is worth to you, when there is a risk of missing a game or three, is up to you. I certainly wouldn't take Manning with the fourteenth overall pick, which is his Average Draft Position. But I wouldn't have drafted him that early in June either. I had Manning pegged as a late second round value, and I'm having a hard time moving him down further than that.
Does he have big-time questions about him? Sure.
Are the players in the late second and third round cold stone locks? Hardly.
Tell me which players of the following you are 100% gung-ho certain of this season: Brandon Jacobs, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney, Jamal Lewis, Plaxico Burress, Michael Turner.
Nothing is predictable in fantasy football. Certainty doesn't exist. That's what makes it fun. Manning, on the other hand, is quite predictable. I don't know how serious his knee injury is, but I know he'll give me an edge at the position when he plays. And I'll take my chances that he'll be playing long before the leaves turn and the games start meaning more. I've never owned Manning in the past, but I'll happily continue to take him when he falls to me at the end of the third round.
Note Here are 29 other things you already know. Have a great weekend everyone. It's been an insane week, I'll be around some this weekend, not sure if I'll be able to post. Football that counts is a lot closer than people realize. Woohoo.
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