Knocking Manning
The more I hear about Peyton Manning's recovery, the less I enjoy what I'm hearing. Jim Irsay's comments the other day didn't sound great. The Colts recognize Manning could miss Week 1. Considering Manning's reputation and the original timeframe we heard, that was a surprise. Mike Lombardi's post about Manning threw gas on the fire, likely to scare the crap out of anyone drafting this weekend.
The reality is, we just don't know that much. We know it was supposed to be a four-to-six week recovery. He had surgery five weeks ago; that's a concern. But if all the speculation ever got past the rumor stage, national reporters would be trying to out-scoop each other. Lombardi would be on NFL Network tonight breaking the news.
Next week will be telling. If Manning hasn't practiced by next Friday, then the concern rises. But now we are just dealing in guesswork. I'd rather deal in what I know to be true, which is hard to find in fantasy football.
Peyton Manning should put up top-five QB numbers when he plays. That we know. What that is worth to you, when there is a risk of missing a game or three, is up to you. I certainly wouldn't take Manning with the fourteenth overall pick, which is his Average Draft Position. But I wouldn't have drafted him that early in June either. I had Manning pegged as a late second round value, and I'm having a hard time moving him down further than that.
Does he have big-time questions about him? Sure.
Are the players in the late second and third round cold stone locks? Hardly.
Tell me which players of the following you are 100% gung-ho certain of this season: Brandon Jacobs, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney, Jamal Lewis, Plaxico Burress, Michael Turner.
Nothing is predictable in fantasy football. Certainty doesn't exist. That's what makes it fun. Manning, on the other hand, is quite predictable. I don't know how serious his knee injury is, but I know he'll give me an edge at the position when he plays. And I'll take my chances that he'll be playing long before the leaves turn and the games start meaning more. I've never owned Manning in the past, but I'll happily continue to take him when he falls to me at the end of the third round.
Note Here are 29 other things you already know. Have a great weekend everyone. It's been an insane week, I'll be around some this weekend, not sure if I'll be able to post. Football that counts is a lot closer than people realize. Woohoo.
Comments
Seems to me playing in a "tough 2 QB league" would be easier than a "whimpy" 1 QB league.
Posted by: Chad | August 24, 2008 12:08 AM
At this point Manning isn't an option for me anywhere in the 2nd. And the players you listed as questionable options look more like 3rd/4th rounders instead of 2nd rounders.
I would pass on Manning for Romo, Brees, Colston, Fitzgerald, and MJD. Many of these guys are available in the late 2nd.
Posted by: Air | August 24, 2008 07:23 AM
I have the #13 pick in a 14 team league (3rd round reverse, points per reception).
So let's say LT, AP, Westbrook, Addai, SJackson, Gore, Barber, Portis, Lynch, Brady, and Moss are all gone in the first 11 picks, leaving at least one out of Manning, Terrell Owens, Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson and Reggie Bush (and others) available.
So would you take Manning there at 13? If not, who?
And if you pass, and the guy picking twice at 14 passes, do you take him at 16?
Posted by: Mike in KC | August 24, 2008 04:04 PM
Dave,
Since no one cared to attempt to answer your very good question.....I'll give you my input.
I have Addai rated like you, #4 overall. I have him locked in there, ahead of Jackson, due to "less risk".
Even if manning misses say 2-3 games, he comes back and that offense will score mucho.
Barring injuries, once Manning comes back, Addai is very very solid.
If you want to risk dropping Addai a few picks due to Manning's potential missed time, thats risky. You set back a real solid player for an "unknown"(at this point).
I'd keep Addai right where you have him, and take him at #4 knowing you might not having Manning's support for a week or 2.
Steve Jax is a high risk all season....thats my view. That team has a lot more issues than Indy's Offense does.
Posted by: DoobieBros2 | August 25, 2008 02:44 PM
As for Manning, I think he should not be downgraded much at all.
He's a real veteran, and dreams football in his sleep. Once he gets cleared to practice again, he'll play within a week.
Will he be 100% at his best his first week? Not likely. But it won't take him long. He's still top 5 FF QB material.
Depends on what the scoring is like in your league......but generically speaking, I wouldn't drop him a bit unless we find out he would miss more than 1 game.
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