Knocking Manning
The more I hear about Peyton Manning's recovery, the less I enjoy what I'm hearing. Jim Irsay's comments the other day didn't sound great. The Colts recognize Manning could miss Week 1. Considering Manning's reputation and the original timeframe we heard, that was a surprise. Mike Lombardi's post about Manning threw gas on the fire, likely to scare the crap out of anyone drafting this weekend.
The reality is, we just don't know that much. We know it was supposed to be a four-to-six week recovery. He had surgery five weeks ago; that's a concern. But if all the speculation ever got past the rumor stage, national reporters would be trying to out-scoop each other. Lombardi would be on NFL Network tonight breaking the news.
Next week will be telling. If Manning hasn't practiced by next Friday, then the concern rises. But now we are just dealing in guesswork. I'd rather deal in what I know to be true, which is hard to find in fantasy football.
Peyton Manning should put up top-five QB numbers when he plays. That we know. What that is worth to you, when there is a risk of missing a game or three, is up to you. I certainly wouldn't take Manning with the fourteenth overall pick, which is his Average Draft Position. But I wouldn't have drafted him that early in June either. I had Manning pegged as a late second round value, and I'm having a hard time moving him down further than that.
Does he have big-time questions about him? Sure.
Are the players in the late second and third round cold stone locks? Hardly.
Tell me which players of the following you are 100% gung-ho certain of this season: Brandon Jacobs, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney, Jamal Lewis, Plaxico Burress, Michael Turner.
Nothing is predictable in fantasy football. Certainty doesn't exist. That's what makes it fun. Manning, on the other hand, is quite predictable. I don't know how serious his knee injury is, but I know he'll give me an edge at the position when he plays. And I'll take my chances that he'll be playing long before the leaves turn and the games start meaning more. I've never owned Manning in the past, but I'll happily continue to take him when he falls to me at the end of the third round.
Note Here are 29 other things you already know. Have a great weekend everyone. It's been an insane week, I'll be around some this weekend, not sure if I'll be able to post. Football that counts is a lot closer than people realize. Woohoo.
Comments
I personally dropped Manning in my rankings below Brady, Romo and Brees due to the knee problem not going away. But I never draft a QB before round 4 so I probably wont get any of them anyway.
Posted by: Ty | August 23, 2008 08:14 AM
Obviously if your not picking QB's until the 4th round your playing in a Whimpy 1 QB league. I play in a tough 2 QB league (14 teams) and whoever gets Manning is a top team every year.
Posted by: Peter | August 23, 2008 12:00 PM
Umm, so you're saying there's a lot of skill and research involved if you want to compete in a "tough" 2 QB league. Hey Peter, any chance you're related to Jacob Kiniry, the kid (from a couple of blogs ago) who plays fantasy football with his GB action figures?
Posted by: seizer | August 23, 2008 12:48 PM
I was runner up in my league with Manning, so to me he walks on water in tne NFL. He will heal and be a good fantasy pick in the very near future.
Posted by: Carl | August 23, 2008 03:34 PM
not taking a qb is a very common theme in many draft styles... especially if you're a rb/rb guy. usually follow that up with a wr, and then qb fourth... fifth round even.
and why, exactly, would a qb1 league be "whimpy?"
Posted by: echo | August 23, 2008 05:57 PM
sorry... *not taking a qb in the first 3 rounds is very common
Posted by: echo | August 23, 2008 05:59 PM
any thoughts on how this affects addai?? sitting with #4, i like addai being "safer" than sjax, but now im not sure if manning is going to be down and out
Posted by: dave | August 23, 2008 11:16 PM