Does Kevin Jones dull Matt Forte's shine?
If you had your eye on Matt Forte this draft season, Kevin Jones' signing isn't such a bad thing. Forte was going to be on every "sleeper" list, including ours. Jones' addition to the backfield may change the perception of Forte without changing his numbers much.
First, Jones has to prove he's healthy. He's coming off a Lisfranc foot fracture (which flared up last year) and a torn ACL. He hasn't topped 186 carries in three years, and isn't likely to this year. IF Jones can get ready for Week 1, he's likely to be a role player. The Bears will bring him along slowly. When I re-calculated the Bears projections Tuesday, Jones primarily took his carries from Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe, not Forte.
I like Matt Forte's game a lot. I like Kevin Jones' quite a bit too. They remind me a lot of each other: big backs that are highly versatile, even if they aren't going to break big plays. If Jones can get healthy, I could see the Bears using the two like they used Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
Thomas Jones was the lead back in that scenario, usually getting double the touches of his backups. Evan Silva and I argued whether that was a committee or not (I say yes), but either way Forte will be in the lead role. He is the future of the team, and Kevin Jones is the guy who is trying to save his career with a one-year deal for the league minimum.
I downgraded Forte's carry total slightly, but it didn't change his outlook that much. He went from RB25, just ahead of Selvin Young, to RB27, just behind Young, Edgerrin James, and tied with Willie Parker. Forte's value didn't change much Tuesday, but his ADP probably did. Now we might be able to draft him without paying for the hype.
Comments
I have to disagree a little here. While Forte will likely still get the bulk of the carries, I'm concerned now. Bears management were adamant that they weren't going to add a veteran back to compete with Forte before the season started. Now, look what they did. I'm guessing Forte wasn't showing them enough. There's a bit more cause for concern here, and I'm bumping Forte 5-7 spots in my RB rankigns.
Posted by: Chris | July 16, 2008 01:14 AM
I have to disagree a little here. While Forte will likely still get the bulk of the carries, I'm concerned now. Bears management were adamant that they weren't going to add a veteran back to compete with Forte before the season started. Now, look what they did. I'm guessing Forte wasn't showing them enough. There's a bit more cause for concern here, and I'm bumping Forte 5-7 spots in my RB rankigns.
Posted by: Chris | July 16, 2008 01:15 AM
I agree completely with Gregg. I'm sure the Bears haven't soured on Forte in the last couple of weeks when there haven't even been any workouts. This is simply a 'no risk' move that makes plenty of sense. It's a 2-back league right now and we saw last year that "the other" Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe aren't the answer. It also helps that Jones should be plenty healthy by the end of the year when rookie RB's tend to wear down.
Posted by: Dave | July 16, 2008 05:54 AM
Kevin Jones will win the starters role from Forte at some point in September.
Posted by: Jer | July 16, 2008 12:41 PM
I thought Jones was headed to the PUP list to start the season? I agree with Gregg. As long as Da Bears don't overuse Forte like Chucky did with Caddy in 2005, Forte should be fine. In face, if Jones can somehow get healthy by Week 1, then I can see Forte having a long and productive rookie season.
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