Dox makes a good point. I like the Lewis comparison and see a lot of similarities.

However, the similarities I see are not necessarily favorable to LJ if you look at Jamal's Baltimore years as the comparison. Here is why:

Both LJ and JL carried their respective offenses during their ~400 carry season (Lewis actually hit 387) and had an injury filled season afterwards. We really didn't know what was wrong with Jamal for two years until the bone spurs were removed from his ankle and we really don't know (last I checked) what happened to LJ last year as its been top-secret.

Lewis had three down years afterwards, one due to the ankle, one due (mostly) to being an idiot and going to jail, and another (and probably parts of the other two) because Billick was a horrible play caller (imo) and never developed a QB. Herman Edwards has been over-rated as a HC, likes to play his own form of conservative, grinding offense, doesn't have a QB worth anything, and has been known for dumb decisions (remember the botched 2004 playoff game vs the Steelers?).

Lewis played with a horrible mish-mash of bad QBs during his down stretch in Baltimore (Boller being the poster-boy) until one decent season by McNair to round it out. LJ plays with Croyle, who I think is probably worse than Boller... 'nuf said. His quality years were accompanied by Trent Green, who was pretty good until the concussions.

Lastly, while its become a cliche to say that a good offensive line can make an average RB good and a good one great, it does hold some (over used) truth. If you look at Baltimore's line from say 2000-2005 and KC's line from say 2001-2006(?), they were among the league's best. As each declined due to injuries or age, life got tougher in the backfield.

I like numbers, so I think it might be interesting to project LJ's post-injury and overall team decline production using Lewis as a model. Lewis averaged 1586 yds and 7 tds from 2000-2003 (missing one year to injury) and 1069 yds and 3 tds in 2004 and 2006 (excluding 2005, which was immediately post-jail). Thats 67% of yards and 43% of tds compared to his first 3 seasons.

LJ averaged 1770 yds and 18.5 tds during his two years as a starter. If we use 67% and 43 % as a model of decline, the projection for LJ is 1185 yds and 8 tds for 2008. I'll throw the caveat in that, while LJ is probably a little more talented than Jamal, he played on better teams in KC (offensively, not defensively) during his two big years than Jamal played on during his productive years in Baltimore.

I'm betting that this year's KC offense is going to be as bad or worse than Baltimore's was durig Lewis' down years and we won't probably know if this year's big KC rookie class will be that good for another year, when LJ will be just shy of 30 years old at the start of the 2009 season. Add in the emergence of Kolby Smith and the addition of Jamaal Charles and LJ could be limited to under 300 carries this year.

I don't think its necessarily 'hating' on LJ to project a decrease in production based on these factors... it happens to every RB eventually and the cards seem stacked against him going forward. 1200 yds and 8 tds (based on the Lewis model) isn't bad at all from a second RB, if you go into the season with realistic expectations. The problem here is that I just don't see expectations being close to reasonable for this guy.

Great post Chad - I'm gonna bounce off one of your last statements to clarify my point:

"...and the cards seem stacked against him going forward. 1200 yds and 8 tds (based on the Lewis model) isn't bad at all from a second RB"

Well said. Even if he doesn't hit 1200/8, I think the floor is somewhere around 1000/5. And there isn't much of a ceiling - Herm might divvy up the carries, or he might give LJ the ball 350+ times again. Even if the Chiefs' offense is putrid and moribund, he'd have to average less than 3 YPC to be a wasted pick as an RB2.

Talent-wise, LJ is still a top 5 RB (running skills, that is - his blitz pickup still sucks). I'm certainly not taking him in the first round of any drafts, but if he slips to the third in ANY league I play in (various scoring formats), that's a huge freaking value pick IMO.

And everyone on here knows you win leagues by getting VALUE from your picks.

I'm sure we all agree the top five/six rb's in some order are: LT, A. Peterson, SJax, Westbrook, Addai & Gore?.

Let's look at some of the other rb's lumped in around LJ that have questions as well:

1)FWP (leg injury & 1st round rookie rb)

2)M. Barber (can he hold a whole season with his running style & 1st round rookie rb)

3)R. Grant (not much of a resume, inexperienced qb & possible hold out)

4)McGahee (suspect qb play & Ogden retiring)

5)Lynch (suspect qb play & not the most duarable)

6)MJD (Fragile Freddy still in the picture)

I guess what I'm getting at is LJ doesn't have more questions than guys like these.

I'm not sure about you but I'll take my chances on a guy with LJ's resume, fully healthy according to reports where his body got rest & mainly not part of some rbbc.

Draft him late 1st/early 2nd & pair him up with another good RB & I think you'd be set up for a pretty successfull season potentially.

I'm glad I'm not the only LJ-backer. I felt really dirty for a couple weeks debating with my "real life" friends. But you guys should stop saying good things about him, so hopefully all the swaying bandwagoneers will let him slide to the 3rd rd.

What I meant with my previous post is, uh, LJ sucks, plays on a bad offense with an unproven QB, mediocre line, and crap receivers. He has no chance to do anything this season. Avoid at all costs!

(please)

i'm not having much trouble ranking LJ against other rb's... it's going to be tough for me this year if i'm anywhere lower than 6, b/c i've never NOT taken an rb in the first round.
i talk about how important it is to get solid points in the first round, and i could be put to the test this year if i am sitting there at 7 with brady and gore both on the board.

Another item which didn't help LJ last season was his lengthy holdout. Holdout players are notorious for getting injured once they return and LJ was no different.

I'm with Dox. I draft the guy in the 3rd round for sure and likely the 2nd.

nobody's denying third, and even second... gregg said they're not taking him with the top 20.
the question is, would you pick him at the end of the first or top of the second?