How far to knock Brandon Marshall

We can almost look past Brandon Marshall's arm surgery. We can no longer ignore his legal problems. His latest arrest actually happened in March, but we are just finding about it now. It puts Jay Cutler's public admonishment of Marshall into a new light. Cutler was in Atlanta with Marshall and knew more than the public.
He now has two domestic issue arrests and a DUI. ESPN writes that a DUI conviction (hardly a certainty) in September could mean a one or two game suspension. But even if that doesn't happen, the NFL can now look at this body of troubles and dole out their own punishment. At this point, I'd be surprised if Marshall wasn't suspended for part of the 2008 season.
When projecting, I hate to deal in uncertainty. I still see Marshall will be a top-ten talent when he plays. But a 16-game projection now seems optimistic. He could still go unsuspended, but he could also get suspended four games. Chopping off two games, to 14, seems fair.
That would drop him six spots, including a tier, in standard scoring. He'd go from our tenth rated wideout, behind Steve Smith, to our 16th rated wideout, behind Santonio Holmes. Not a devastating drop, and I suspect we'll still have him higher than most. I'm sure we'll be updating his projection again.





Comments
Hey Gregg,
Great minds think alike! I posted about Brandon Marshall in the Forums earlier today.
I also suggested that all of this news about Marshall and his possible legal troubles has to have some impact on Jay Cutler's draft status as well. Take away Cutler's primary target for a few games and his numbers have to suffer as well. Where would you rank Cutler among the QBs now with the possible suspension of Marshall looming?
Posted by: CdnFan | June 25, 2008 07:03 PM
I drafted Eddie Royal in a Dynasty league. Do you think this ups his value at all? I planned on stashing him for a few years, but any chance he gets upgraded next year?
Posted by: pdiggles | June 25, 2008 11:57 PM
Maybe a Denver RB (Selvin) is worth a pick but the rest of the team is a flier pick. What else is new? Forget 'em and hope to get lucky if you take one in FF. Done deal!
Posted by: b roo | June 26, 2008 12:19 AM
your overreacting to this. why dont we just wait and see what happens first. i dont think he'll be suspended at all, and if im not mistaken, you were the guys that were 'certain' henry would be suspended all of last year. way off on that.
Posted by: scott c | June 26, 2008 11:19 AM
I don't see any evidence of overreaction. Quite to the contrary actually.
I didn't hear Gregg say anything remotely close to a suspension being definite. Did I miss something?
Projections are obviously based on anticipated games played and Gregg and the staff have to adjust them accordingly. There is at least a possibility (if not a likelihood) based upon precedent that Marshall does warrant a 2-4 game suspension with 3 arrests in less than a year.
Posted by: Stephen | June 26, 2008 12:02 PM
Sounds like the girlfriend is blackmailing him because she knows some stuff. Sounds like Brandon could be getting into some real trouble shortly. Would sure be interesting wouldn't it. I can see the outcome now "Brandon Marshall suspended for year, fantasy keeper league owners sue girlfriend for ruining team"
Posted by: J | June 26, 2008 03:33 PM
Gregg,
You have to remember one thing. If a player is suspended for two games (or even four), so long as you know what games those are, you'll be able to get alternate production from a bench player in that time. While clearly that bench player will not be a fellow WR1/2, it's different than a projection of 16 games with points spread amongst them. You tend to come out a winner in the suspension scenario (so long as the player returns at full strength/ability). Michael Pittman was one of my all-time great fantasy finds, who returned from a 3-game suspension the week Charlie Garner suffered a season-ended injury, and became a 1,300 yard (combined) back. This scenario plays similarly to your argument about preferring 11 great games from jacobs than 16 mediocre games.
Posted by: ThePieHole | June 27, 2008 10:08 AM