Welker vs. Williams

So I now know that Steve Smith is a good debate starter. The Smith vs. Colston vs. Marshall discussion was a doozy, setting a Pancake Blocks record for comments. In the current voting, a late charge by Smith made it close, but Colston went first, followed by Smith, with Marshall a distant third. Marshall seems like such a fantasy guy to get hyped up; I'm a little amazed how little love he's getting. And I suspect I may own him plenty this year if August goes well. I trust the Denver passing attack more than Carolina's.
Today, let's look at two more flashpoint wideouts: Wes Welker and Roy Williams. Both play for offenses that should dial down their pass attempts some this season. With Welker, 2007 has to be close to his ceiling. He also was behind Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson (not to mention Randy Moss) in red zone targets, so double-digit touchdowns look out of reach. Williams, not unlike Steve Smith, has one season that stands above the rest, and has been overdrafted in the past based on potential. So are you buying a Roy rebound or does the steady play of Welker excite you enough for an early WR2 pick?
For the record, I'm going Colston, Smith, Marshall. But I barely see difference between them. That's why I asked. And for this debate, I'm not counting PPR leagues where Welker gets a big boost.





Comments
Interesting question because these guys are such different WR. The Smith-Colston-Marshall debate features 3 guys who are similar style receivers. My feeling is that obviously PPR Welker is the guy, but standard leagues, I still take Roy Williams. However, I still think people will downplay what Welker did last year and he will be available later and therefor a better value. It's not inconceivable that you could get both of them on your roster.
Posted by: Greg | May 9, 2008 11:48 AM
I'm really not a fan of either player.
Someone always reaches for Roy because of his potential and I think that Welker will be a darling of many because of last year.
I guess I'd take Williams because he's in a contract year, but I'd much rather have Calvin Johnson a round later and hope his upsides comes to fruition.
Posted by: Krib | May 9, 2008 12:13 PM
Gregg, I think you picked two guys that opinions will vary even more widely on than the Coston-Smith-Marshall debate.
For this season, I like Welker better. I am not, however, saying that he is the better player in the long-run or in terms of talent.
Here is my reasoning: Welker will see more balls playing the dump-off role in a pass heavy offense while defenses focus on Moss (PPR gold mine) and is good in the open field. I like Williams as a talent, but he'll be behind Calvin Johnson in a run-first offense and has been a major tease through his career (unfulfilled potential). Williams has been the unquestioned #1 in Detroit for the last 4 years but only posted one 1000+ yd season and has 0 seasons with >8tds. Roy has only played 16 games in one season and is a perpetual injury risk... even when healthy, he'll disappear for 2 or 3 games a couple of times a season. While Welker isn't consistent game-game either, its easier to attribute this phenomenon to playing opposite Moss than to explain Williams' issues.
At the root of my argument is this question: will Williams see enough looks or be healthy enough to take advantage of them? I think that Roy and Wes should see similar #'s this year and that Welker is the safer bet.
Posted by: Chad Ferguson | May 9, 2008 12:13 PM
Id prefer Welker just for his consistency. Any given week I could count on him getting at least 70-80 yards and maybe a score.
Williams could put up big 120 yards + 2 TD days more, but there might be games where he is invisible, or hurt.
It depends on what you took as your WR1 I guess.
If you took a high upside guy that might disappear for a game here and there I would go with Welker. If you took a pretty consistant guy, you might want to take a chance on a home run hitter in Williams.
All other things being equal I would take Welker because consistency is king in FF and he produced even with Moss taking record setting amounts of TD's.
Williams will fight with Calvin Johnson all year.
Posted by: Matt | May 9, 2008 12:16 PM
I second Krib in picking Roy because of him working for his big payday after this season. Welker certainly has less downside risk though.
Posted by: b roo | May 9, 2008 12:24 PM
In this debate, I keep coming back to one thing...quarterbacks. For Welker, it will be Tom Brady. For Williams, probably Jon Kitna again. Both teams will probably run more but I think New England will still use the passing game pretty heavily. As such, I would take Welker ahead of Williams.
One sidenote, I think Roy Williams is a tremendous talent and if he could get in a consistent offense with a solid quarterback, he could easily be a top 10 WR. That won't be this year obviously.
Posted by: DJOmaha | May 9, 2008 01:31 PM
wes welker all the way,this ones not even close if your in a ppr league ,welker is also tom brady's security blanket
roy williams is over rated and now will share touchs with calvin johnson not to menton the pouching of touchs by furrey and mcdonald
Posted by: brent | May 9, 2008 01:35 PM