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Smith vs. Colston vs. Marshall

Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.

This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.

Comments

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abruzzi he was the top scoring wr by 20+ points in most leagues in 2005 and the 7th (while missing two games) in 2006. Add in 5 points that a scrub would have gotten for those two weeks he missed (because you'd put someone in the lineup and your backup should be able to get 5 points in a ppr league) and he jumps to third.

The upside was reached and he wasn't over-rated.

and we should also remember Muhammad was the highest scoring WR in 04. So in 3 of the past four years a WR that Delhomme was throwing to was in the top 3 of weekly average scoring among WRs. The one year that this did not hold for he was injured for all but two games.

hey mark, Marshall had 727 yards in the 8 games with Javon and 598 yards in the 8 games without him. bottom line, defensive coordinators will pay more attention to shutting him down this year than they did last year, thus he will not repeat his stats this year.

1. Smith, 2. Marshall, 3. Colston

Steve Smith was off to a good start until his quarterback was injured, and the number of QB's that took his place indicated they couldn't find the answer. Marshall is on the rise, his quarterback is maturing, new additions to the offensive line, etc. Colston reminds me to Todd Heap, a great athlete but there's always some kind of injury slowing them down. Colston was injured ½ of his first year, most of his second. I'd typically avoid reoccuring injuries.

1. Colston
2. Smith
3. Marshall

But there is a big gap between each one in my mind.

Colston is the true stud here, with a stud QB.

Smith had one crazy season and people want to expect that every season. He's a great talent, but that just wasn't a season you should expect to be repeated. His other seasons show what he really is (and I drafted him last year in one league and then was smart enough to trade him when Delhomme went down).

Taking Smith's production from a few games last year and trying to say that's what you should expect is just dumb? I mean, he got 2 TDs against Houston which you should never expect him to repeat...one where the ball got batted away from him but tipped up in the air 10 feet and he was able to snag it for a TD, and one where he was crushed by 5 people at once but somehow stayed on his feet and broke loose for a long TD. Sure, those show off how dangerous he is to score on any play...but do you really expect those types of plays to happen once a week?

I mean, if you want to take someone's production from the first 2 games, let's talk about how Javon Walker should be one of the top WRs. He had 17 catches for 220 yards in the first 2 weeks.

Brandon Marshall...you just can't expect him to be a stud. I don't think his ceiling is that high, and his floor is pretty low considering he got his arm tore up by falling through a TV, he's got a QB with diabetes. Maybe I'm wrong and he'll be fine and Cutler will be even better this year now that the diabetes is diagnosed and under control...but Marshall is kind of a character question mark, too.

Maybe I'd take Marshall over Steve Smith, depending on what I see on his recovery from the arm injury and what I hear about Cutler, but Steve Smith, at the very least, could have significant trade value upside if he breaks out in the first couple of games that Marshall doesn't. Everyone will think Smith is on his pace to have 20TDs if he gets 4 in the first 2 games, when really, he's already had half of his production for the year.

I think Steve Smith is being undervalued by most of you. His production has certainly been affected by his health and Delhomme's. Of course, that may be the case again this year. As such, here's my take:

Colston
Smith
Marshall

But I think the most upside goes with Smith. If he and Delhomme both stay healthy, it wouldn't shock me to see him keeping pace with Randy Moss. The targets that were added in Muhammad and Hackett will make a big difference for him. In comparison, Colston is still stuck with the same scrubs and Marshall will have Colbert or Darrell Jackson on the other side. Kind of scary.

Are most people overlooking what Colston did the first 6 games of the season last year?

6 Games, 235 yards, 2 Touchdowns

Granted he came on the last 10 games of the season, he still had games of 16 yards and 39 in that strech.

Smith didn't put up good numbers last season either, but keep in mind he had a QB that couldn't remember how to throw (Carr), a 175 year old QB (Testeverde), and an undrafted rookie free agent (Moore) throwing him the ball.

All that being said, I agree Smith is overvalued but no more than Colston. If I was drafting I'd go

1. Smith
2. Marshall
3. Colston

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