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Smith vs. Colston vs. Marshall

Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.

This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.

Comments

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1. Colston
2. Marshall
3. Smith

With Jonathan Stewart now in the backfield, I see the Panthers running the ball more, cutting into Steve Smiths targets.

I'm very surprised at the lack of Smith love here. I think he is a lot less risky than you guys are acting. First, Delhome seems like he will be ready for the season, and probably will have more arm strength. Baseball pitches get the surgery all the time and come back better, no reason to think Delhomme won't.

Secondly I dont see Colston or Marshall being the highest scoring fantasy WR, but Smith has that potential every year.

How is Colston not # 1. He's by far got the best QB of the three, Brees is the only #1 QB throwing to these three players and the stats from MockDraftCentral support that, and Colston has a better offense scheme - Sean P. likes to throw, Shanny and Fox would rather tear apart the opponents d-line w/ the ground game, even though neither of them can decide on a steady RB. Peyton has no problems flinging the ball around. All three have no real proven threat on the other side - Sorry Greg, DJ is hurt way to much + Mushin lined up at # 2 when they broke ground a few days ago. So the double team coverage could be argued b/t all of them. Colston was getting doubled the beginning of last year, which was a reason for his low numbers, but later in the year he figured out a way to still get grabs and produced a season in which he SHOULD have been a pro bowler. Sure Smith and Marshall will have good games, but then they will fad away once one little thing goes wrong. Face it, Carolina and Denver just don't have the supporting cast that Colston does to produce solid stats all year round. In NO both Bush and Deuce went down, yet Thomas was running wild - which meant teams still had to focus on the run and respect the play action passes. Better yet, I've owned all three at some point - I want Colston on my team again the most of the three. I'll take Smith second b/c he'll play some weak Dbs - like NO and Atl, while Marshall goes up against SD and OAK's secondary, not to mention KC's D- I'm not doubting Herm on D he has parlayed his D skills into several years of NFL coaching jobs.

JPO, Colston might have a good supporting cast but Delhome isn't a bad QB at all and Smith has produced with him for years. Just because the supporting cast is there doesn't make Colston the better fantasy pick.

Smith had 87 receptions and over 1000 with horrible qbs almost the entire season...he'll do significantly better with a good QB throwing him the ball.

JPO, can you honestly say Smith isn't the best player on the field just about every time he lines up? He's like some sick lovechild of Wes Welker and Randy Moss as long as has someone who can get him the ball. If Delhomme is healthy, Smith competes for the #1 WR ranking in the league. I don't think Colston or Marshall can do that, although both are definitely top 10 guys.

Brandon Marshall led the NFL in targets a year ago, edging Fitz by 2. Despite that, he finished with only 7 TDs and as the 51st most valuable player on a per play basis according to Football Outsiders. Contrast that to Colston who caught more TDs, had a higher catch percentage, and was the 13th most valuable WR per play.

Now FO's WR stats don't tell you how a player is going to do in fantasy, but they can give you some context. Assuming Marshall continues to develop, his catch percentage will likely rise next year but that will probably only offset the likely drop in targets. Projecting TDs is somewhat random with WRs, but since Denver's offense has been in a steep decline for several years (and really only sports two good players currently in Marshall and Cutler) the Broncos will probably not be one of the teams that spends a lot of time in the red zone.

If you project similar development for Colston, he's likely to move into the Fitzgerald, Wayne, A. Johnson, Edwards range.

If we follow Gregg's advice and project all the likely suspects in Carolina healthy, then Smith comes in right behind Colston. Fox is in a make or break year and the selection of Stewart and the huge value they gave up to get Otah suggests they will pull out all of the stops to be more dynamic offensively.

Colston, Smith, Marshall

Smith, Colston, Marshall

Smitty is primed for a major bounce back year with a healthy Delhomme under center...Remember, 2004 and 2005, a healthy Delhomme produced the #1 fantasy receiver in Moose and Smith.

Colston is a solid pick, but, some seem to forget his disappearing act between weeks 2-7 last season. He was even being cut in some leagues before he exploded to end the season.

Marshall has unlimited potential, but his off-field antics and his limited body of top tier work make him the riskiest pick of the three.

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