Michael Turner vs. Jamal Lewis
Another great job with the Grant vs. Barber debate. With some precincts still hanging, Grant holds a one vote lead. Let's stick with running backs, moving into the RB2 territory.
Fantasy owners have been waiting for Michael Turner to become a primary back for years; then he got stuck in Atlanta. He's good, but he's never topped 100 carries before and he's going to have to carry a bad offense. Lewis turned around a severe decline last year, and he certainly plays on a great offense. But the schedule gets harder this year and he will be ranked higher than any back with more than 2,000 career carries except LT2. So let me know your pick: Do you hope for one more good year from Lewis or chase the upside of Turner?
Comments
Turner for Dynasty, Lewis for re-draft. Lewis has the edge for being a safe pick, but the dominant Lewis of old always came against the Browns D. He really screwed up his fantasy value by signing with them. I don't see a big season for him in the case of an explosive Browns offense or one that regresses to the Browns of old.
Turner though does not seem safe at all. He should have a big game or two because someone has to get yards for that team and not many defenses will be used to defending him, but a RB is only as good as the team around him and that will kill his value for at least the next year. I am currently dealing with this since I own his rights in a dynasty league where I also have Tomlinson, Gore, Grant, Parker and Jacobs. I would love to trade Turner for a wide receiver upgrade, but I'm not sure what value is there. He may end up being more valuable in preseason than during the season.
Posted by: Will | May 6, 2008 11:21 PM
I'm not sure you can legitimately take Turner in the top 30 RBs. His situation in going from San Diego to Atlanta is akin to LJ's going from Vermeil (and Roaf) to Edwards (and McIntosh).
When you consider that LJ has basically fallen out of the top 15 RBs since the Chiefs are never in the red zone and have an atrocious QB and offensive line, a similar analysis applies to Turner. With the obvious exception that Turner, unlike LJ, has never been the best RB in fantasy.
Turner has a rookie HC, a terrible OL, an unproven QB (that David Lewin of FO has already projected as a bust for an article on Rotoworld), and a potentially talented RB to split carries with.
Yeah, outside the top 30 RBs. I'll take Lewis, but like the Grant/Barber battle, I think you have to take any of the top 20 WRs first.
Posted by: The Dude Abides | May 7, 2008 02:36 AM
Both of these guys are underrated. Jamal still has 3 quality years left in him. The Cleveland O is sweet and people are still in denial about that (though admittedly much of that rides on whether Derek A can repeat his performance of last year). Jamal is a great value pick because so many people only remember his past injury.
Turner is also a great value pick. Don't underestimate the value of his speed on that turf and playing a cushy schedule with that division every year. Also, teams can turn around so fast in the NFL, and even with a bad team, RBs can have huge fantasy value. A lot of the complaints about Atlanta this year sound like what people were (correctly) saying about Miami last year, and yet Ronnie Brown was posting great numbers before his injury.
Bottom line, I think we can all agree that (1) Turner is the better keeper league pick, (2) Jamal is the safer redraft pick, (3) Turner has more upside in a redraft league but if you were putting money on it (and we are), you'd take the safe Jamal pick over Turner.
Posted by: veggieb | May 7, 2008 07:59 AM
It is definitely Jamal Lewis. Simple as this:
Lewis offense=good
Turner offense=bad
Lewis line=good
Turner line=bad
Lewis=only back
Turner=committee
Lewis wins hands down
Posted by: Andy | May 7, 2008 08:18 AM
Offensive set up for both teams is so different: Browns pass the ball all over the field. The expectation is the Falcons will run, run, and run some more. What I see is Turner having more yards, being severely overworked, but less TDs. Overall points to Lewis. Obviously, Turner in a Dynasty league.
Posted by: Boesy | May 7, 2008 08:35 AM
ahh the typical debate... proven commodity over talent untested. i definitely go with Turner. not even close. i disagree with anyone who says the schedule, age, and possible injury wont derail Lewis this year. last year, yes, solid. but he had a fluke 4TD game, all of 1yd carries. and the rest of his "good" games came against TERRIBLE defenses. absolutely no friggin way he produces even nearly as much as last year. the Brown will be regretting this deal. Turner is already about as proven as ur gonna get, without being featured. in comparison, id say he's light-years ahead of this RB rookie class. what else can you want? better OLine, QB, sure. but look what M.Lynch did last year. their in the same boat. i think you should rate M.Lynch against Turner. now that would be interesting.
Posted by: scott c | May 7, 2008 11:56 AM
btw... none of these remarks sway me in either direction. are u guys just putting down ur gut reactions. come on
Posted by: scott c | May 7, 2008 11:58 AM