It's the final night before a deadline, the ass-crack of dawn approaches, and yet it's just another night for the usual Rotoworld night owls. Pouliot is still cranking out blurbs on the greatest Single-A prospects, while Evan Silva has posted nine football items since midnight. I ask him why, and he says, "I can't sleep."
People always ask how they can get into fantasy writing. Be the type of person that wakes up to post blurbs at 3:30 AM because you can't help yourself. That's why Silva makes the Godzilla bankroll.
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One of the big themes of this magazine and draft season is the questionable RB2s available. There are plenty of guys who look like solid values in the third or fourth round, but it's hard to choose any worthy of RB13-15 status. Ronnie Brown is one of my favorite candidates, but this article about Ricky Williams partially confirms my worst fears: Ronnie could be heading for a committee. Despite his claims, Ricky will not be a calming influence on Brown owners.
It makes sense. Brown hasn't topped 275 touches in his career. It would be asking a lot for him to carry the whole load in his first season after ACL surgery. Ricky, of course, is an even bigger question mark. But if Williams can stay healthy, look for Brown to ease into life under Tony Sparano. If he shows that he's strong enough, perhaps he'll get more carries as the season wears on.
May 13, 2008
Regrets and apologies for the lack of content. I arrived in Dallas today, where myself and Rotoworld Grand Poobah Rick Cordella put the finishing touches on our first magazine this year. We'll be done by Thursday and head back to New York. It's looking good, but can't quite let up yet.
One of my toughest decisions this year was at tight end, where there is very little separating tight ends six-through-twelve or so. For our series of player battles, I'm picking out three that fell in the middle: Vernon Davis. vs. Jeremy Shockey vs. Heath Miller.
Continue reading "Shockey vs. Davis vs. Miller" »
May 09, 2008
So I now know that Steve Smith is a good debate starter. The Smith vs. Colston vs. Marshall discussion was a doozy, setting a Pancake Blocks record for comments. In the current voting, a late charge by Smith made it close, but Colston went first, followed by Smith, with Marshall a distant third. Marshall seems like such a fantasy guy to get hyped up; I'm a little amazed how little love he's getting. And I suspect I may own him plenty this year if August goes well. I trust the Denver passing attack more than Carolina's.
Today, let's look at two more flashpoint wideouts: Wes Welker and Roy Williams. Both play for offenses that should dial down their pass attempts some this season. With Welker, 2007 has to be close to his ceiling. He also was behind Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson (not to mention Randy Moss) in red zone targets, so double-digit touchdowns look out of reach. Williams, not unlike Steve Smith, has one season that stands above the rest, and has been overdrafted in the past based on potential. So are you buying a Roy rebound or does the steady play of Welker excite you enough for an early WR2 pick?
For the record, I'm going Colston, Smith, Marshall. But I barely see difference between them. That's why I asked. And for this debate, I'm not counting PPR leagues where Welker gets a big boost.
May 07, 2008
Some of you thought the Jamal Lewis vs. Michael Turner battle wasn't very close. I would argue that many of the same people thought Lewis was overrated as a fifth-round pick last year, but the people have spoken. Today's three-way battle is hopefully more interesting: Steve Smith vs. Marques Colston vs. Brandon Marshall.
This year looks promising for Smith, but he's annually overrated by us fantasy types because he's a great NFL player. He only topped 1,200 yards or eight touchdowns once in his career. Marshall and Colston have already equaled that total and play for better passing teams - especially Colston. There is some projecting here, but let's allow that Marshall is healthy well before most draft days, which is expected. Rank 'em in order if you please.
In the last 45 years, only three receivers have more yards in their first two seasons than Marques Colston: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Torry Holt. No one has more receptions.
While we're here, may as well point out he's seventh in fantasy points and touchdowns over that span. This gives a good clue about our magazine battle for tomorrow. Carry on.
May 06, 2008
Another great job with the Grant vs. Barber debate. With some precincts still hanging, Grant holds a one vote lead. Let's stick with running backs, moving into the RB2 territory.
Fantasy owners have been waiting for Michael Turner to become a primary back for years; then he got stuck in Atlanta. He's good, but he's never topped 100 carries before and he's going to have to carry a bad offense. Lewis turned around a severe decline last year, and he certainly plays on a great offense. But the schedule gets harder this year and he will be ranked higher than any back with more than 2,000 career carries except LT2. So let me know your pick: Do you hope for one more good year from Lewis or chase the upside of Turner?
May 05, 2008
We had a great debate about Braylon Edwards vs. Andre Johnson last week, with AJ surprisingly coming out on top 16-12.
As I hit the frantic home stretch of our first magazine (I leave for Dallas next Tuesday), you can help me with another battle: Ryan Grant vs. Marion Barber.
Barber will be a flash point for fantasy owners this year. He produced like a top-three back last year, but his limited experience and the change to Aaron Rodgers will scare some owners away. He's going to go early, but would you take him ahead of elite wideouts. More importantly, would you take him ahead of Marion Barber, who now has Felix Jones around?
May 02, 2008
When writing the Colts' outlooks for next year, especially for Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, I said that so much of their value hinges on Marvin Harrison. I didn't quite trust him to come back all the way. I thought there's a chance he doesn't come back at all. Of course, I was worried about his knees; not his 25 guns. This is going to be the story of the summer.
Kudos to WIP's Anthony Gargano, who must have a great connection with the Philly police. Some of the details he uncovered are unbelievable.
If it seems like I'm leaning on you guys more than ever while preparing this magazine, well, it's because I believe in the wisdom of the Pancake Blocks crowd. I love getting informed opinion to consider when making tough choices. It doesn't mean I go along with it all of course, but I do value it highly.
One of the toughest decisions I'm wrestling with currently is near the top of my receiver rankings. I won't say exactly where, but the battle is between Braylon Edwards and Andre Johnson. My gut says one thing, my numbers say another. They are both true game-breakers who have put themselves firmly among the receiver elite. But if you're on the clock today, who are you taking?
I'm a big Earnest Graham fan. The playing style, the resemblance to Cee Lo, the fortitude to battle for years as a fourth-string running back on the roster bubble before becoming a star. I just don't know how Jon Gruden feels about him. Graham, perhaps more than any other runner in the NFL, is a master of the hard-earned four-yard gain. He doesn't have much flash, and I think that pains Gruden. I think Gruden wants more.
That makes Graham exceedingly difficult to rank for this season. Is he the consistent top-10 back from 2007 or is he destined to be part of a committee that includes Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett, and Cadillac Williams if he ever gets healthy? Give me your position rank in the comments.
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