Bengals roll with mediocrity
Maybe the Bengals just got tired of swinging and missing on draft day at running back. Along with Arizona, they were one of the most surprising teams to pass on selecting a running back early. But the Cardinals did dive in with fifth-round pick Tim Hightower (no relation.)
Will they want to sign Shaun Alexander (hope not) or Kevin Jones (interesting)? Perhaps. But for now, I had to fill out my projections with what's in the house. Let's review:
Rudi Johnson: The Bengals are counting on a comeback and talking him up. But he was so singularly bad last year, he's just impossible to recommend or envision lasting as a starter all year. Running backs rarely bounce back that far after a collapse like that. I gave him 155 carries.
Kenny Watson: A rock. I'm guessing the Bengals figure that if everything collapses, Watson can save them. I gave him 130 carries, 37 catches, and the best fantasy outlook by far.
Chris Perry: There is genuine optimism about him contributing for the first time in years. We'll see. He has 19 touches in the last two years. I gave him 55 touches for now. and could bump up in offseason.
DeDe Dorsey: Showed a lot of potential late last year as a change of pace back. He could push Perry off the roster. I like him as a role player and gave him 55 touches. I'm guessing either Dorsey or Perry will get cut eventually.
Kenny Irons: Last year's second-round pick could be another Perry. He's been very slow to recover and probably will start the year on the PUP list. I gave him 20 touches.
Add it all up, and my highest ranked RB on a great offense is a late RB3. The proposed starter isn't too far behind. Summer events will clear some of the deep spots up, but you'd be surprised how typical a setup this is for 2008. There is going to be more guesswork/instincts involved in drafting running backs than ever before.
Comments
with that said, i still got the 3rd pick in our rookie draft... tough call, mendenhall, forte, smith... any ideas???
Posted by: scott c | May 1, 2008 04:26 PM
Kenny Watson will be the most valuable Bengal back - and i think Greg you MIGHT have him a bit low as a RB3 - if he takes over by game 4 as I suspect (Rudi is as done as done gets and they should just cut him!) he could end up a nice #2 RB for the last 12 weeks or so. Very nice high reward pick -especially in PPR leagues (the only way to play!)
Posted by: Scott L | May 1, 2008 04:41 PM
Kenny Watson showed last year he was the most talented back the Bengals had. Marvin Lewis is a stubborn horrendous head coach who will probably stick with Rudi this year despite his poor production. What more does Watson have to do to show he's solid?
Posted by: John W. | May 1, 2008 05:18 PM
while i still think its debatable that rudi is done, i defitally think that watson is not the answer. the man is a more of a 3nd down back than anyone. he has good hands but there is no way 200lb 30 year old (yes hes older than rudi) can be a featured back... u guys are all smokin the stuff
Posted by: scott c | May 1, 2008 06:05 PM
Gregg,
You asked for an aging back with sub 3.0 ypc that had a comeback?
Eddie George, in 2001 had 16 GP, 315 A and 939 yds with 5 TD (3.0 ypc). In 2002 he had 16 GP, 343 A and 1,165 yds and 12 TD (3.4 ypc). In 2001 George was 28, same age Rudi Johnson was last year...
Posted by: Tommy | May 2, 2008 12:31 AM
Scott, 3rd pick in the draft if you can get Mendenhall grab him. He'll get all the Steeler goal-line carries, FWP had 1 rushing TD in '07. And you didn't mention Jonathan Stewart, I guess you're figuring DMC and Stewart will go 1-2 in your league...Kevin Smith is an OK pick, but that Lions team didn't rush the ball much last year, maybe with Mike Martz gone that will change for Smith -- no competition for him in Motown with Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun the incumbents there. I'm high on Mendenhall since seeing him shred the vaunted USC defense in last year's Rose Bowl. Pittsburgh's got a dandy there, imo...
Posted by: Tommy | May 2, 2008 12:38 AM
Rudi is a MUCH OLDER back in RB YEARS than Kenny Watson is. And is he an ideal featured back- no. But after Rudi flops again after say 4 games and the Bengals realize AGAIN that Rudi is done - then they will have no other alternative than K Watson who by the way - played DAMM well last year in the same offense Rudi struggled in even before he hurt his hammy as Greg R. pointed out to you. Rudi is a wasted draft pick plain and simple.
Posted by: Scott L | May 2, 2008 08:52 AM