Bengals roll with mediocrity
Maybe the Bengals just got tired of swinging and missing on draft day at running back. Along with Arizona, they were one of the most surprising teams to pass on selecting a running back early. But the Cardinals did dive in with fifth-round pick Tim Hightower (no relation.)
Will they want to sign Shaun Alexander (hope not) or Kevin Jones (interesting)? Perhaps. But for now, I had to fill out my projections with what's in the house. Let's review:
Rudi Johnson: The Bengals are counting on a comeback and talking him up. But he was so singularly bad last year, he's just impossible to recommend or envision lasting as a starter all year. Running backs rarely bounce back that far after a collapse like that. I gave him 155 carries.
Kenny Watson: A rock. I'm guessing the Bengals figure that if everything collapses, Watson can save them. I gave him 130 carries, 37 catches, and the best fantasy outlook by far.
Chris Perry: There is genuine optimism about him contributing for the first time in years. We'll see. He has 19 touches in the last two years. I gave him 55 touches for now. and could bump up in offseason.
DeDe Dorsey: Showed a lot of potential late last year as a change of pace back. He could push Perry off the roster. I like him as a role player and gave him 55 touches. I'm guessing either Dorsey or Perry will get cut eventually.
Kenny Irons: Last year's second-round pick could be another Perry. He's been very slow to recover and probably will start the year on the PUP list. I gave him 20 touches.
Add it all up, and my highest ranked RB on a great offense is a late RB3. The proposed starter isn't too far behind. Summer events will clear some of the deep spots up, but you'd be surprised how typical a setup this is for 2008. There is going to be more guesswork/instincts involved in drafting running backs than ever before.
Comments
Even with the advent of the internet. FF has become more luck then skill because everyones exposed to the same material for drafting purposes. But instincts is something either you have or you dont. the ones who dont, tend to stay in re-draft leauges anyways
Posted by: abruzzi | May 1, 2008 11:53 AM
gregg whats with u bad mouthing rudi so much.. so what he had one down INJURY plagued year. injury the key word. i saw the first two games last year and he was solid. then he effed up his hammy and he was done for the year after he decided not to rest it properly, and everyone knows that u have to fully rest a hammy to get back to normal. now that hes back to his old self, he should be fine.... i SWEAR, people are terrified of a older RB comming off an down/injury year ever since shaun alexander. terrified. and, all the other guys there are terrible. watson was a condidtion of circomstances last year, no way he gets that many rec. again.
Posted by: scott c | May 1, 2008 12:17 PM
Scott - he was declining before last year. he was fine in fantasy but 3.8 ypc and bad pass game skills wont keep you on field forever.
Anyhow show me an aging back how posted a sub 3 ypc and came back strong. it wasnt just a down year but a collapse.
Posted by: gregg | May 1, 2008 01:30 PM
I wouldn't rule out Shaun Alexander b/c he still has a following in Cincinnati and Perry and Dorsey look to be expendable. While Watson did well last season, he's a natural 3rd down back and will resume that role should they be able to get some sort of power running game going again with Rudi, Irons, or a back to be named later.
I think the Bengals offense takes too much of the blame for their season last year (particularly Chad and Rudi) because the defense has been absolutely horrid. In a way, Watson's success comes from the team playing from behind every week (pass catching abilities). If they can field a decent defense, which will allow the rushing game to develop and yield some short fields, Rudi's numbers should come back up for a season or two before he falls apart for good.... but here in Cincinnati, thats a big 'if'.
Posted by: Chad Ferguson | May 1, 2008 02:02 PM
Rudi is only 28, and although he has showed signs of decline prior to 07, I predict a Rudi Renaissance in 08. It will be his last hurrah before he rides into the sunset.
While that may sound like an endorsement, I'd still rank him as a RB3/4 and only draft him if he fell to me late.
Posted by: endzoneview | May 1, 2008 02:07 PM
Rudi's done. Overall I like the outook for RBs this year though. There's going to be a few rookies put up some good numbers I think with Stewart leading the pack.
Posted by: b roo | May 1, 2008 02:25 PM
thanks gregg. well, maybe im just harkened because i got stuck with Rudi AND Shaun A. last year.... in a dynasty league. eff me
Posted by: scott c | May 1, 2008 04:24 PM